2015 EPAC Season

#741 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:06 pm

To note, the EPAC today has surpassed 2006's total ACE (155) and is currently at 159 units. Though Ignacio is weakening and Kilo moving across the dateline, Jimena will continue to add units for some time. 1982 will certainly go down and quite likely 1997 next the big +ENSO pair.

#742 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:52 pm

Ntxw wrote:To note, the EPAC today has surpassed 2006's total ACE (155) and is currently at 159 units. Though Ignacio is weakening and Kilo moving across the dateline, Jimena will continue to add units for some time. 1982 will certainly go down and quite likely 1997 next the big +ENSO pair.

If Jimena somehow lasts as long as the GFS and ECMWF think it will, I could see an additional 30-40 units from Jimena alone.

#743 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:54 am

171 now (not final and could be adjusted) but with Jimena still going strong 2014 looks very beatable. Really just another decent timed major would take it over and I think we'll see many more than that.

#744 Postby **Ntxw** » Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:29 am

EPAC ACE is now over 180 units (may still adjust) and is top 10. It is only 18 units away from matching 2014's 198. Being honest earlier in the season I didn't think this season would top last season in that category. Now it is looking likely that it will and 200+ units is well within reach for a top 5 season.

#745 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:28 am

Long range GFS continues to show a west tracker in Linda. More ACE. :uarrow:

#746 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:19 pm

ECMWF also has two systems forming in around a week near Mexico.

#747 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:39 pm

A large area of cloudiness and showers has formed several hundred
miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Upper-level winds could become
favorable for some development of this system over the weekend
while it drifts slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

#748 Postby **Extratropical94** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 6:45 am

An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

#749 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:44 am

Currently per Ryan Maue's site EPAC sits at 207.8625. Though this may be adjusted with Kilo I'm not sure how he groups crossovers. Anyhow with Linda it will be a moot point and will continue gains. As it stands this is good enough for 3rd most active season on record only behind 1992 and 1990.

When Linda is done it will likely be only 1-2 decent hurricanes away from 1990 per ACE

#750 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:03 am

Ntxw wrote:Currently per Ryan Maue's site EPAC sits at 207.8625. Though this may be adjusted with Kilo I'm not sure how he groups crossovers. Anyhow with Linda it will be a moot point and will continue gains. As it stands this is good enough for 3rd most active season on record only behind 1992 and 1990.

When Linda is done it will likely be only 1-2 decent hurricanes away from 1990 per ACE

GFS and ECMWF appear to so something decent in a little over a week.

#751 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:09 am

Yellow Evan wrote:GFS and ECMWF appear to so something decent in a little over a week.

Any long trackers like Jimena or Ignacio? Those are the 20-40 units systems. Marie and Linda (parallel the west coast of Mexico offshore) like tracks are about 15-20 units. To beat 1990 will need to get to 249 units.

#752 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:20 am

Ntxw wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:GFS and ECMWF appear to so something decent in a little over a week.

Any long trackers like Jimena or Ignacio? Those are the 20-40 units systems. Marie and Linda (parallel the west coast of Mexico offshore) like tracks are about 15-20 units. To beat 1990 will need to get to 249 units.

Doubt we get any westerly long trackers. However, I'm expecting 2-3 parallel to the coast majors before the end of the year, which should give us second place.

CaliforniaResident · #753 Postby **CaliforniaResident** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:32 pm

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 7 2015

1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some gradual
development of this system is possible by the weekend while it moves
slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi

#754 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 2:10 pm

12z ECMWF bombs the 0/20 system close to Mexican coast and heading closer to Cabo San Lucas.

#755 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 2:11 pm

GFS has also been quite aggressive on it but develops it later on.

#756 Postby **Extratropical94** » Tue Sep 08, 2015 1:01 am

An area of low pressure is expected to develop several hundred miles
south or south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system while it moves generally west-
northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

#757 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 08, 2015 6:52 am

5 AM PDT:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop several hundred miles
south or south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system while it moves generally west-
northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

#758 Postby **Extratropical94** » Tue Sep 08, 2015 1:13 pm

An area of low pressure is expected to develop several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system while it moves generally west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

#759 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 09, 2015 6:53 am

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of the coast of
Central America are associated with a tropical wave. An area of low
pressure is expected to develop in association with the wave later
this week several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this low while it moves generally west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

#760 Postby **Extratropical94** » Wed Sep 09, 2015 1:08 pm

No change:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of the coast of
Central America are associated with a tropical wave. An area of low
pressure is expected to develop in association with the wave later
this week several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this low while it moves generally west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

2015 EPAC Season

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