2015 hurricane forecasts

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Hurricaneman
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2015 hurricane forecasts

#1 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:41 pm

heres my personal preliminary 2015 hurricane forecast

Here are the factors for the 2015 hurricane season possibly{subject to large errors}

Enso: looking like it could be a +neutral to weak El Nino which could be a negative but there also could be an El Nino madoki which wouldn't be as negative

PDO: its looking like the PDO will be in the + range for the 2015 hurricane season which would tend to cause more ridging closer to land which may need to be watched

Vertical Instability: the instability is below normal in the MDR which has shut down much in the way of strong activity the last 3 or so years south of 20N and I see no change in that but being 6 months away from the next hurricane season a lot could be a lot different by then

AMO: this seems to be heading back towards + territory and thats a + for maybe more development in the MDR

NAO: I'm expecting a more +NAO and while this is far down the line it fits pretty well with the + PDO times overall and would lead to a more inhanced landfall risk

as for overall storm numbers I'm going with because it could be a +neutral to weak El Nino and possible problems with instability in the MDR IM going with

10-5-2 so basically like 2014 with 1 less hurricane and a possible landfall somewhere on the US Coast but the next update will be in March and I'll have more info to go on by then

I'd like to see other forecast to see what peoples thoughts are on the 2015 hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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CrazyC83
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#2 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 06, 2014 5:06 pm

That seems fairly reasonable. The vertical instability and dry air will be the big question marks IMO. The MDR has been pretty much dead the last few years, but it eventually has to change...
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#3 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Dec 07, 2014 12:02 am

Right now, I think this season will be slightly active then the last two seasons but still will be similar in terms of storm tracks.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.


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