heres my personal preliminary 2015 hurricane forecast
Here are the factors for the 2015 hurricane season possibly{subject to large errors}
Enso: looking like it could be a +neutral to weak El Nino which could be a negative but there also could be an El Nino madoki which wouldn't be as negative
PDO: its looking like the PDO will be in the + range for the 2015 hurricane season which would tend to cause more ridging closer to land which may need to be watched
Vertical Instability: the instability is below normal in the MDR which has shut down much in the way of strong activity the last 3 or so years south of 20N and I see no change in that but being 6 months away from the next hurricane season a lot could be a lot different by then
AMO: this seems to be heading back towards + territory and thats a + for maybe more development in the MDR
NAO: I'm expecting a more +NAO and while this is far down the line it fits pretty well with the + PDO times overall and would lead to a more inhanced landfall risk
as for overall storm numbers I'm going with because it could be a +neutral to weak El Nino and possible problems with instability in the MDR IM going with
10-5-2 so basically like 2014 with 1 less hurricane and a possible landfall somewhere on the US Coast but the next update will be in March and I'll have more info to go on by then
I'd like to see other forecast to see what peoples thoughts are on the 2015 hurricane season
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
2015 hurricane forecasts
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- Hurricaneman
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2015 hurricane forecasts
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