Expert forecasts for 2015 N Atlantic Hurricane Season

[CrazyC83]

What would it take for a 0/0/0 season? What kind of conditions?

[Kingarabian]

What would it take for a 0/0/0 season? What kind of conditions?

I would say a Super El-Nino to spread crazy shear, and some super SAL episodes to spread suffocating dry air that would extend from the MDR to Africa.

And to stop those baby miniature storms/sub-tropical storms, we would need cold SST's in the Northern Atlantic for most of the season.

You'll also still have to worry about those East coast gulfstream storms.

Really hard.

[Hurricaneman]

Its almost impossible to get a 0\0\0 season as in the recorded history there has never been one and also there's always a somewhat favorable area in the basin at some point during the season even in the worst conditions

[CaliforniaResident]

I am predicting a 4/0/0 for this season yet one hurricane making landfall in the U.S.
Guess how that would happen?

[ninel conde]

a hurricane will form over lake superior?

[gatorcane]

Though not a scientific rebuttal, we still can't ignore the fact that years ending in 5s have featured at least one hurricane hit for the United States going all the way back to 1935 (1955 featured Ione which looks to have weakened just before landfall in the Outer banks). Wxman57 brought this point up a few months ago and it is interesting indeed.

[Hurricaneman]

a hurricane will form over lake superior?

Hes saying a Hurricane is going to hit California or Hawaii if I'm guessing right

[TheStormExpert]

Though not a scientific rebuttal, we still can't ignore the fact that years ending in 5s have featured at least one hurricane hit for the United States going all the way back to 1935 (1955 featured Ione which looks to have weakened just before landfall in the Outer banks). Wxman57 brought this point up a few months ago and it is interesting indeed.

I have a funny feeling for some reason that this year will break that interesting trend. If what everybody is saying on how hostile and unfavorable the Atlantic basin is is true then we very well could have a good chance of being spared from any significant hurricane impact(s). A weak to moderate impacting hurricane like Arthur(2014) still isn't impossible IMO though.

[Ntxw]

We'll have to wait and see, there was a lot of heat and fuel in the NWCarib last year but nothing every materialized with the warm ocean temperatures. As mentioned come summer the waters will be plenty warm enough to support even the strongest canes, even if the anomalies are cool. What dictates is the atmosphere, only if it allows.

[TheStormExpert]

We'll have to wait and see, there was a lot of heat and fuel in the NWCarib last year but nothing every materialized with the warm ocean temperatures. As mentioned come summer the waters will be plenty warm enough to support even the strongest canes, even if the anomalies are cool. What dictates is the atmosphere, only if it allows.

The Caribbean was quite hostile as a whole last season(as well as the year before). I expect with a strengthening El Niño that it will be no different if not more hostile compared to the last two seasons.

The GoM as well may be a dead zone once again if the current Subtropical jet doesn't relocate or weaken, even the famous for quick spin ups BoC I feel may be shutdown. The only real concerning spots may be off the East Coast/West Atlantic, and the Subtropical Atlantic. The MDR looks to be on vacation this year and should remain a living desert all season.

[cycloneye]

The private company WSI made their forecast and is below average.Read it at first post.

[Hurricaneman]

Weatherbell April update

Named Storms: 7-9
Hurricanes 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
ACE 65-80% of normal

So no change from March, I think he just tweaked impact areas.

and they're pretty much saying that the northern gulf to North Carolina are at high risk, and Joe Bastardi is mentioning such storms as Audrey in 57 and Helene in 58 so its definitely something to watch for

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ouragans]

The Weather Channel's forecast in out: 9/5/1

[cycloneye]

The Weather Channel's forecast in out: 9/5/1

Weather Channel and WSI are the same as they are partner companys.

[weatherwindow]

What would it take for a 0/0/0 season? What kind of conditions?

Suggest we examine 1914...1/0/0...as an analog...can anyone pull up basin conditions and any other factors which may have a bearing on the slowest Atlantic season on record???

A quick search yielded the following: 1914, according to the BOM.au, is one of the 13 strongest El Nino events since 1900...negative AMO approximately -.8degC SSTA...neg PDO

[SouthFloridian92]

Regarding the 1914 season, I would take storm seasons prior to the satellite era with a grain of salt. It was virtually impossible to record all the storms that formed during this time period. I also don't believe that a 0/0/0 season is likely to ever happen, though I could be wrong. It would be interesting.

[weatherwindow]

Regarding the 1914 season, I would take storm seasons prior to the satellite era with a grain of salt. It was virtually impossible to record all the storms that formed during this time period. I also don't believe that a 0/0/0 season is likely to ever happen, though I could be wrong. It would be interesting.

While I certainly agree that storms could have been missed, those figures are reanalysis vetted. However regardless of a couple of missed storms, 1914 would certainly rank very near the bottom in terms of activity. Relative to Crazy's question, the ocean/atmosphere conditions present in 1914 may have relevance to the factors attendant to a hypothetical 0/0/0 season...do you see my direction here?
Moderators...sorry for the OT discussion

[wxman57]

Regarding the 1914 season, I would take storm seasons prior to the satellite era with a grain of salt. It was virtually impossible to record all the storms that formed during this time period. I also don't believe that a 0/0/0 season is likely to ever happen, though I could be wrong. It would be interesting.

While I certainly agree that storms could have been missed, those figures are reanalysis vetted. However regardless of a couple of missed storms, 1914 would certainly rank very near the bottom in terms of activity. Relative to Crazy's question, the ocean/atmosphere conditions present in 1914 may have relevance to the factors attendant to a hypothetical 0/0/0 season...do you see my direction here?
Moderators...sorry for the OT discussion

Reanalysis is only as good as the available ship data. The main shipping routes were north of the main development region. Typically, there were very few ships south of 30N between the Caribbean and Africa. It's estimated that at least 2-3 tropical storms (or greater) were missed in the early 1900s. Some years more, some less, even with the reanalysis. Short-lived storms were particularly prone to being missed.

As for comparing atmospheric data from 1914 - there was just about zero data available out over the water. No upper-air data and only a very few ship reports.

As for the current season, all indicators are still suggesting a much quieter than normal season. I'm thinking around 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 1-2 majors. Just a bit above Klotzbach/Gray. Could be fewer than that.

[ninel conde]

LC final forecast is 14/7/3 and he says few US threats with an early oct peak.

[LarryWx]

LC final forecast is 14/7/3 and he says few US threats with an early oct peak.

LC is expecting El Niño to weaken during summer and later cool down to the neutral negative category. That's why he's got an active season being forecasted.