Expert forecasts for 2015 N Atlantic Hurricane Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re:

#41 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Apr 09, 2015 3:59 pm

Andrew92 wrote:Yes, most of them occur off the East Coast, but some doozies have come from these systems in the Gulf. I certainly wouldn't let my guard down in the least if I lived in that area (or anywhere else).

-Andrew92


No one should ever "let their guard" down anytime along the Gulf Coast. Eventually, a hurricane will hit there, be it 10 years from now or 5 months form now. They need to be ready for a hit at some point.
0 likes   

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 40
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#42 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Apr 09, 2015 4:31 pm

I also want to point one more thing out in terms of GOM activity. Not every storm or hurricane that occurs there hits the United States. One storm I have brought up multiple times in previous posts is Anita, but Mexico has also been hit by Isidore in an El Nino year as well from the Gulf.

Or we could have another storm like Ida, that weakens over the Gulf.

When I say no hurricanes were in the Gulf in any year, I don't mean to say one didn't hit the Mexican coast or there wasn't one that proceeded to weaken. I mean, literally, there were none there in that year.

2009-11, as well as 2013, saw no GOM US hurricane hits. But Alex and Karl caused a lot of damage in Mexico in 2010, along with Ingrid in 2013, after striking from the GOM.

Maybe the US won't get hit, even in that area, but Mexico takes a hit. But I still would be ready.

-Andrew92
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re:

#43 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Apr 09, 2015 6:19 pm

Andrew92 wrote:I also want to point one more thing out in terms of GOM activity. Not every storm or hurricane that occurs there hits the United States. One storm I have brought up multiple times in previous posts is Anita, but Mexico has also been hit by Isidore in an El Nino year as well from the Gulf.

Or we could have another storm like Ida, that weakens over the Gulf.

When I say no hurricanes were in the Gulf in any year, I don't mean to say one didn't hit the Mexican coast or there wasn't one that proceeded to weaken. I mean, literally, there were none there in that year.

2009-11, as well as 2013, saw no GOM US hurricane hits. But Alex and Karl caused a lot of damage in Mexico in 2010, along with Ingrid in 2013, after striking from the GOM.

Maybe the US won't get hit, even in that area, but Mexico takes a hit. But I still would be ready.

-Andrew92


Mexico has been prone to a lot of hits in recent years. The thing is that part of EGOM make get a lot of shear due to all the expected EPAC activity. Though the most recent El Nino MX hit was Isidore back in 02. And prior to that Antia 77 I think. Though Gert 93 hit in a near-El Nino.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5272
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: Re:

#44 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Apr 09, 2015 10:29 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:I also want to point one more thing out in terms of GOM activity. Not every storm or hurricane that occurs there hits the United States. One storm I have brought up multiple times in previous posts is Anita, but Mexico has also been hit by Isidore in an El Nino year as well from the Gulf.

Or we could have another storm like Ida, that weakens over the Gulf.

When I say no hurricanes were in the Gulf in any year, I don't mean to say one didn't hit the Mexican coast or there wasn't one that proceeded to weaken. I mean, literally, there were none there in that year.

2009-11, as well as 2013, saw no GOM US hurricane hits. But Alex and Karl caused a lot of damage in Mexico in 2010, along with Ingrid in 2013, after striking from the GOM.

Maybe the US won't get hit, even in that area, but Mexico takes a hit. But I still would be ready.

-Andrew92


Mexico has been prone to a lot of hits in recent years. The thing is that part of EGOM make get a lot of shear due to all the expected EPAC activity. Though the most recent El Nino MX hit was Isidore back in 02. And prior to that Antia 77 I think. Though Gert 93 hit in a near-El Nino.


1977 started as a weak El Nino, than cooled down, and went back to El Nino.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: Re:

#45 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Apr 10, 2015 10:51 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:I also want to point one more thing out in terms of GOM activity. Not every storm or hurricane that occurs there hits the United States. One storm I have brought up multiple times in previous posts is Anita, but Mexico has also been hit by Isidore in an El Nino year as well from the Gulf.

Or we could have another storm like Ida, that weakens over the Gulf.

When I say no hurricanes were in the Gulf in any year, I don't mean to say one didn't hit the Mexican coast or there wasn't one that proceeded to weaken. I mean, literally, there were none there in that year.

2009-11, as well as 2013, saw no GOM US hurricane hits. But Alex and Karl caused a lot of damage in Mexico in 2010, along with Ingrid in 2013, after striking from the GOM.

Maybe the US won't get hit, even in that area, but Mexico takes a hit. But I still would be ready.

-Andrew92


Mexico has been prone to a lot of hits in recent years. The thing is that part of EGOM make get a lot of shear due to all the expected EPAC activity. Though the most recent El Nino MX hit was Isidore back in 02. And prior to that Antia 77 I think. Though Gert 93 hit in a near-El Nino.


1977 started as a weak El Nino, than cooled down, and went back to El Nino.


Seems similar to the current El Nino but in this current one it never wnet below the El Nino threshold

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#46 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:03 pm

North Carolina State is calling for 4-6 named storms, 1-3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane.

Link
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re:

#47 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:13 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:North Carolina State is calling for 4-6 named storms, 1-3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane.

Link


WOW. Only 4 storms?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts=NC State University forecast up

#48 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:22 pm

NC state forecast is added.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#49 Postby RL3AO » Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:59 pm

Thats a remarkable forecast. The low end would tie the modern record for fewest named storms. Thats a big forecast to make considering how good the NHC has gotten at finding the smallest and shortest lived (S)TS's.
0 likes   

User avatar
weatherwindow
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Joined: Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:48 am
Location: key west/ft lauderdale

Re: Expert forecasts=NC State University forecast up

#50 Postby weatherwindow » Tue Apr 14, 2015 10:09 am

Good morning all.....Re: NCSU forecast, the post is evidently the abstract....Would love to access the prognostic reasoning, any thoughts as to a means.....Grtz from KW, Rich
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19140
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Expert forecasts=NC State University forecast up

#51 Postby tolakram » Tue Apr 14, 2015 1:06 pm

It should be available here once published -> http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/index.html
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

ninel conde
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1245
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 2:18 pm

Re:

#52 Postby ninel conde » Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:10 am

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:North Carolina State is calling for 4-6 named storms, 1-3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane.

Link


sounds pretty reasonable. id love to see 0/0/0 just because it would be so amazing.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2312
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: Expert forecasts=NC State University forecast up

#53 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:24 am

lol 4-6 storms, give me a break......I am no expert but I would bet money that we will see 7 storms
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Expert forecasts=NC State University forecast up

#54 Postby psyclone » Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:06 am

stormlover2013 wrote:lol 4-6 storms, give me a break......I am no expert but I would bet money that we will see 7 storms

the question for me is how many truly tropical systems we see. I wouldn't be surprised if we squeeze out 7 named storms with at least 3 of those high latitude subtropical junk leaving us with no more than 4 truly tropical systems..i hope to be wrong but I expect a snooze fest.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve820
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 188
Age: 24
Joined: Sat May 17, 2014 8:04 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#55 Postby Steve820 » Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:27 pm

This forecast is super low. I'm thinking we'll see at least 9 storms! (But less than 15, due to the El Nino) No way would we see an inactive season with only 4-6 storms, it's gotta get more active than that!
0 likes   
Hurricanes are an amazing natural phenomena. While many are spiraling pits of evil that kill people or cause devastation, some are tame and stay clear of land.

I wish for you to :Bcool:

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re:

#56 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:39 pm

Steve820 wrote:This forecast is super low. I'm thinking we'll see at least 9 storms! (But less than 15, due to the El Nino) No way would we see an inactive season with only 4-6 storms, it's gotta get more active than that!


Well, 4 storms has happened before. We saw 8 last year anyhow.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve820
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 188
Age: 24
Joined: Sat May 17, 2014 8:04 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

Re: Re:

#57 Postby Steve820 » Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:42 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Steve820 wrote:This forecast is super low. I'm thinking we'll see at least 9 storms! (But less than 15, due to the El Nino) No way would we see an inactive season with only 4-6 storms, it's gotta get more active than that!


Well, 4 storms has happened before. We saw 8 last year anyhow.


I still hope we don't get very inactive, especially if the storm count ends up below 8. I have a feeling we'll see at least 9 storms in this Atlantic season.
0 likes   
Hurricanes are an amazing natural phenomena. While many are spiraling pits of evil that kill people or cause devastation, some are tame and stay clear of land.

I wish for you to :Bcool:

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: Re:

#58 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:14 pm

Steve820 wrote:
I still hope we don't get very inactive, especially if the storm count ends up below 8. I have a feeling we'll see at least 9 storms in this Atlantic season.


I wouldn't be too positive. ATL SST configuration is beyond terrible.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Expert forecasts for 2015 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#59 Postby wxman57 » Thu Apr 16, 2015 5:23 pm

The 2014 season came close to ending at 5 at the end of September. If not for that unusual burst of activity in October, which accounted for about half the ACE, 2014 would have ended at 5/4/1. Such low numbers can happen, but it's more difficult these days as subtropical systems or very short-duration storms are getting named.

By the way, it's probably not a good idea to state on this forum that you hope it's not too inactive with a number fewer than 8. That's like saying "I hope we get hit by a big one this year". Hoping for a hurricane impact is frowned upon here.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19140
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Expert forecasts for 2015 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#60 Postby tolakram » Fri Apr 17, 2015 8:27 am

Weatherbell April update

Named Storms: 7-9
Hurricanes 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
ACE 65-80% of normal

So no change from March, I think he just tweaked impact areas.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 58 guests