Expert forecasts for 2015 N Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Ntxw]

I followed GWO last year given claims of being accurate previous. They were incorrect that El Nino would not appear for in 2014, the CPC has declared it and per ONI officially began SON (you could argue it began in late spring, weakened, and cranked later half) but the second half of Hurricane season there was El Nino and the shear across the deep tropics was clearly evident the entire season. They were the only organization to say NO.

I even went back to cross check the information they put out. Before 2014 season began they called for 17 named tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes (8-6-2 was the official season count). It doesn't match what their page claims they put out. Really questionable to me.

[Alyono]

GWO was close in terms of hurricanes and intense hurricanes, though they were off in terms of named storms. A mixed bag in terms of last year


They do not release everything as they are a private company. Their responsibility is to their clients, not to us

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Not going to include at the expert list as I read that release there is no real explanation of why he forecasts an active season.Only this?

Mr. Dilley says that while the past two hurricane seasons (2013 and 2014) were dominated by hostile upper atmospheric winds that suppressed tropical activity, the next few years will enter a natural “Climate Pulse Enhancement Cycle” that will be favorable for more active and intense hurricane seasons.

I'm familiar with him. Lots of vague claims and even more vague verifications. His forecasts and verifications are not posted for review. I just sent him an email asking about his forecasts & verifications.

[OuterBanker]

Wxman, hope you have deep pockets. Single zone predictions start at 500.00 and run up to 7,700 for multiple maps and years. Really?? Even JB doesn't charge that kind of money. And he's far more entertaining.

[wxman57]

I added JB's forecast. He tweeted the link this morning.

[cycloneye]

I added JB's forecast. He tweeted the link this morning.

Ok thank you. Any hint by Phil at conference.I know they will go low.

[wxman57]

I added JB's forecast. He tweeted the link this morning.

Ok thank you. Any hint by Phil at conference.I know they will go low.

Phil will announce their official numbers at the National Tropical Weather Conference in S. Padre Island next week, where I'll be attending/presenting. All I know now is that when I mentioned "9" as a number of named storms he hinted that 9 may be too high. We'll see. I'd guess he'll say something like 8/4/2.

[cycloneye]

TSR April forecast is up at first post list. They see an average to slightly below average season. CSU coming later this morning.

[wxman57]

TSR April forecast is up at first post list. They see an average to slightly below average season. CSU coming later this morning.

Take note of their Caribbean forecast - very little activity, only a single TS. Agree with that. TS and H numbers look a bit high.

[cycloneye]

Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach · 9h 9 hours ago
Seasonal hurricane forecast released live from the National Tropical Weather Conference tomorrow, April 9 at 10am EDT. @HurricaneCon

[cycloneye]

Very low numbers by CSU.See the April forecast at first post.

Median (in parentheses)
Issue Date
9 April 2015
Named Storms (NS) (12.0)
7
Named Storm Days (NSD) (60.1)
30
Hurricanes (H) (6.5)
3
Hurricane Days (HD) (21.3)
10
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)
1
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (3.9)
0.5
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92)
40
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (103%)
45

[wxman57]

Phil says it is their quietest forecast ever.

[Ntxw]

40 ace? I mean we see us amateurs take ganders with those kind of numbers but by them is a little eye opening.

[Sambucol]

Phil says it is their quietest forecast ever.

Awesome!!! Good news for us

[Andrew92]

Phil says it is their quietest forecast ever.

Awesome!!! Good news for us

Mark Sudduth/hurricanetrack did tweet something else important that Phil Klotzbach apparently said: Gulf of Mexico hurricanes are usually not affected by El Nino.

I agree it will be quiet for the most part in the Atlantic. But remember, it only takes one!

-Andrew92

[LarryWx]

Mark Sudduth/hurricanetrack did tweet something else important that Phil Klotzbach apparently said: Gulf of Mexico hurricanes are usually not affected by El Nino.

I agree it will be quiet for the most part in the Atlantic. But remember, it only takes one!

-Andrew92

Andrew,
Regarding H hits on the US gulf coast, there clearly has been a quieting effect from El Nino. Since 1950, there have been only 14 US gulf H hits out of 22 seasons with El Nino (and that's counting Bonnie of June of 1986, which technically hit before El Nino had actually started that season). So, that gives us 0.64/season. OTOH, for the other 43 seasons, there were 41 gulf hits or 0.95/season.

El Nino US Gulf H hits since 1950

1953 Florence
1957 Audrey
1963 Cindy
1965 Betsy
1968 Gladys
1969 Camille
1972 Agnes
1977 Babe
1986 Bonnie
1987 Floyd
1997 Danny
2002 Lili
2004 Charley
2004 Ivan

Sources:

ENSO (ONI):

http://www.cpc.ncep.... ... ears.shtml


Hurricane tracks:

http://weather.unisy...icane/atlantic/



*Edited for two corrections: 1) I inadvertently had counted Lili of 2002 as non-Nino. It clearly is Nino. 2) 41 hits rather than 43 hits for non-Nino

[Andrew92]

Excellent rebuttal, Larry, to which I will even add a little more.

Sandy Delgado/HURAKAN believes Cindy in 1963 may not have been a hurricane at all. His Master's thesis can be found on AOML's reanalysis website with that data. Also, I have my doubt's on the statuses of Babe in 1977 and Floyd in 1987. Their pressures at landfall were similar to Cindy's. In Babe's report, the NHC expressed doubt over that storm's status as well but went by the course of least regret. And Floyd looked just awful for even a forming hurricane.

However, I also have a hurricane to add to your list: I believe 2002 was an El Nino, so Lili would need to be in there as well. And that storm was a major hurricane until it disintegrated shortly before landfall (though its pressure was still just barely in line with being a major).

Part of my opinion for a GOM hurricane is admittedly because there were no hurricanes there last year, and it is rare to go two straight years without a Gulf hurricane. It has happened before and it will happen again. However, I am pretty sure some mets out there are at least open, if not keen, to the idea that this sort of scenario very well could happen this year from a frontal-type system of some sort. Yes, most of them occur off the East Coast, but some doozies have come from these systems in the Gulf. I certainly wouldn't let my guard down in the least if I lived in that area (or anywhere else).

-Andrew92

[wxman57]

Phil says it is their quietest forecast ever.

Awesome!!! Good news for us

Yeah, but 2015 is forecast to be twice as active as 1983 (Alicia)...

[LarryWx]

Excellent rebuttal, Larry, to which I will even add a little more.

Sandy Delgado/HURAKAN believes Cindy in 1963 may not have been a hurricane at all. His Master's thesis can be found on AOML's reanalysis website with that data. Also, I have my doubt's on the statuses of Babe in 1977 and Floyd in 1987. Their pressures at landfall were similar to Cindy's. In Babe's report, the NHC expressed doubt over that storm's status as well but went by the course of least regret. And Floyd looked just awful for even a forming hurricane.

However, I also have a hurricane to add to your list: I believe 2002 was an El Nino, so Lili would need to be in there as well. And that storm was a major hurricane until it disintegrated shortly before landfall (though its pressure was still just barely in line with being a major).

Part of my opinion for a GOM hurricane is admittedly because there were no hurricanes there last year, and it is rare to go two straight years without a Gulf hurricane. It has happened before and it will happen again. However, I am pretty sure some mets out there are at least open, if not keen, to the idea that this sort of scenario very well could happen this year from a frontal-type system of some sort. Yes, most of them occur off the East Coast, but some doozies have come from these systems in the Gulf. I certainly wouldn't let my guard down in the least if I lived in that area (or anywhere else).

-Andrew92

Andrew, thanks.
1) Interesting about Cindy, Floyd, and Babe. Also, I inadvertently had counted 2002 as non-El Nino. I have since made the correction in the original post (see above). Thanks for pointing that out!

2) I agree about not letting one's guard down especially on the gulf coast when considering Audrey, Betsy, Camille, Agnes, Lili, Charley, and Ivan! After all, even during El Nino years, 59% had at least one US Gulf H hit!

**Edit: 3) When looking at seasons with no gulf H hits on the US, there has been only one instance of three no H hit years in a row since 1950: 2009-11. Will 2013-5 be only the 2nd instance of this? I wouldn't count on it.

**Edited

[LarryWx]

1) The quieting effect of El Nino vs. non-Nino is more evident when one just looks at either only seasons with multiple US Gulf H hits or just major US Gulf H hits:

a. Multiple US Gulf H hit seasons, alone:
- Non-Nino: 9 seasons of 43 (21%) with 2+ US Gulf H hits: 1950, 1964, 1979, 1985, 1989, 1995, 1998, 2005, and 2008; 3 seasons with 3+

- Nino: only 1 season out of 22 (5%) with 2+ US Gulf H hits: 2004; no seasons with 3+ hits


b. Major H US Gulf hits, alone:

- non-Nino: 19 hits in 43 seasons (0.44 per season)
- El Nino: 5 hits in 22 seasons (only 0.23 per season or about half the non-Nino rate)

2) When looking at the % of seasons with 1+ US GOM H hits, the difference is very small: 27 of 43 (63%) non-Nino v. 13 of 22 (59%) Nino. So, much of the difference is due to seasons with multiple hits, alone.