2015 WPAC Season

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing a "high" chance of development over the next 5 days.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, prospects don't look even as good as they did yesterday. If something were to develop, it's definitely going to be low and in the Nino box. We're still getting plenty of convection tied with the Nino 4 region just north of the equator, but organization has trended the wrong way for development. Everything is very sloppy right now.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM still sensing Melor next week and a little west and slightly stronger east of the Marianas.

CMC still brings Melor albeit weaker passing south of Guam at about the same time but does bring it to a typhoon west of Guam...

EURO still consistent on no development just brings a passing disturbance to the Marianas.

GFS making a run, no development since...

[euro6208]

Models trending stronger with Melor.

NAVGEM, CMC brings it to a typhoon faster but differs on location east and south of Guam.

The previous stubborn EURO now brings it to a tropical storm first time southwest of Guam and is much southerly.

[euro6208]

GFS brings a CPAC system into the WPAC where it becomes a typhoon after crossing over to the dateline with a possible track to the Marianas.

[euro6208]

Found some interesting records although not complete.

- 15 Cat. 3+ typhoons (>= 96 knots) occurred in the Northwest Pacific this year, tying the fullseason
record set in 1958 and 1965

- 2 typhoons forming in May (Noul and Dolphin) reached Cat. 5 (>= 137 knots) intensity. This
is the first time in the NW Pacific on record that this has occurred.

- No TCs formed in the Northwest Pacific between Champi on 10/14 and In-fa on 11/17. Only
2011 (since 1950) had such a long period with no TC formations starting on 10/14.

- Through 11/30, Northwest Pacific ACE is at its 3rd highest level on record (463 ACE), trailing
only 1992 (470 ACE) and 1997 (502 ACE).

[1900hurricane]

1997's total ACE is 591.0655 units. There's no way we're going to catch that. Ivan, Joan, Keith, and Paka had 218.955 ACE units just between them, unreal for just four storms. Just for some perspective, that's more than every Atlantic Hurricane Season going back to 1950 except for three (2005, 1995, and 2004) and every Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season going back the same amount of time except for three (1990, 2015, 1992).

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF is more bullish.

[euro6208]

00Z GFS slowly recurves Melor...

[dexterlabio]

^That's not the same "Melor" the ECMWF and other models are showing to form within the week. GFS also develops Melor in a week but much weaker. You will see that clearly in this graphic.

[cycloneye]

06Z GFS has turned very bullish close to Luzon.

[euro6208]

Oh there you go. Previous GFS run had this Melor occuring a week after EURO's depiction.

Looks like the latest GFS now agrees with EURO on timing but stronger than EURO.

^That's not the same "Melor" the ECMWF and other models are showing to form within the week. GFS also develops Melor in a week but much weaker. You will see that clearly in this graphic.

[euro6208]

EURO also develops Nepartak following Melor through the Philippines.

[euro6208]

GFS has Melor making landfall over the Philippines as a intense typhoon.

18Z brings it to Lamon bay east of Manila while 00Z is slightly south passing over Catanduanes Island.

06Z is more south making landfall near LegaZpi City Albay.

[euro6208]

The WPAC has been unusually inactive so far in this strong nino so far.

[dexterlabio]

From a typhoon the other day down to nothing but weak vorticity crossing the Philippines for the previous 4 runs by the GFS. The other models though are holding on to at least a tropical storm within the weak.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Found some interesting records although not complete.

- 15 Cat. 3+ typhoons (>= 96 knots) occurred in the Northwest Pacific this year, tying the fullseason
record set in 1958 and 1965

- 2 typhoons forming in May (Noul and Dolphin) reached Cat. 5 (>= 137 knots) intensity. This
is the first time in the NW Pacific on record that this has occurred.

- No TCs formed in the Northwest Pacific between Champi on 10/14 and In-fa on 11/17. Only
2011 (since 1950) had such a long period with no TC formations starting on 10/14.

- Through 11/30, Northwest Pacific ACE is at its 3rd highest level on record (463 ACE), trailing
only 1992 (470 ACE) and 1997 (502 ACE).

Great information! Good share!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Also do want to note if we get a named storm in December it will be the first time in recorded history for one to occur every month.

[euro6208]

NWS switching to Himawari!

As we pay our respects to the now hibernating MTSAT-2 weather monitoring satellite, we welcome the advanced primary Himawari-8 satellite put into orbit by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Below is a comparison of water vapor channels between the new Himawari-8 and MTSAT-2 satellites. The left is Himawari-8 and right MTSAT-2. This advance is similar to upgrading a high definition TV (1920 x1080) to the new Ultra HD format (3820x2160), a doubling of spatial resolution. In addition, images from Himawari08 also come in 6 times more frequently (temporal resolution) than the MTSAT-2. That means we receive an image every 10 minutes vs 60 minutes. The higher temporal resolution will allow WFO Guam to make better forecasts including: better assessment of island thunderstorm development, more accurate tracks and intensities of tropical cyclones especially in the short term, and better computer model forecasts.
A near real-time visible Himawari-8 image shows only isolated showers across the region with unsettled weather over Chuuk state. Mainly dry conditions are expected for the Marianas for the next couple of days before a disturbance brings more clouds and showers to the islands midweek.
Please visit our website for the latest watches, warnings and advisories at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/
Water vapor image courtesy of Cooperative Institute for
Meteorological Satellite Studies - University of Wisconsin-Madison.

We going to be able to view the updated loops like we can now on the NOAA page?

NESDIS is currently working on getting the himawari-8 images onto our wesite. In the meantime, h-8 images over the western Pacific can be found at: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/twpac.html

[euro6208]

The models are agreeing more that another system may develop if current INVEST 96W develops.

NAVGEM was showing a typhoon passing south of Guam following another storm in front but recently back off. Still shows the same system with much much weaker and much further south towards Yap.

CMC also joining the twins. Varies with it's strength from strong to weak with a track towards Western Micronesia.

EURO still on the twins bandwagon. Develops the second system following behind the first system.

GFS only dhows twin systems, both strong disturbances...