2015 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#641 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 09, 2015 5:45 am

NWS on the second system...

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO
CHUUK OVER THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY TO YAP OR KOROR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
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#642 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:18 pm

The convection over the western portion of Nino 4 looks like it has begun to coalesce into a coherent disturbance.

Image
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#643 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 09, 2015 4:35 pm

Do you have the link to that site of images?
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#644 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 09, 2015 4:40 pm

Yeah, sure, here it is. That particular image is "True Color."
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Re:

#645 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 09, 2015 5:00 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Yeah, sure, here it is. That particular image is "True Color."


Is a great site that I bookmarked.
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#646 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 10, 2015 3:38 am

Image

It's coming...

NWS

BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM ARE BULLISH WITH THE
DISTURBANCE EAST OF KOSRAE...TAKING IT TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM AS A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE
ATTITUDE WITH RESPECT TO THIS WEATHER SCENARIO FOR NOW.
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#647 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 10, 2015 7:16 am

NAVGEM previously develops the system to a TS south of Guam with a general westward track to Palau and Yap but no longer develops it in the latest 00Z run.

CMC does a double whammy takes Nepartak a bit north of where Melor makes landfall..over central Luzon, in a possible Fujiwhara.

EURO is weaker now takes a strong LPA/TD through Western Micronesia and Visayas.
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#648 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Dec 10, 2015 11:33 pm

Yeah, I love that site. The images are fairly close to real time too, usually only 10-15 minutes off.
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Re:

#649 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Dec 11, 2015 1:49 pm

RobWESTPACWX wrote:Also do want to note if we get a named storm in December it will be the first time in recorded history for one to occur every month.

Got it!
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#650 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 11, 2015 6:58 pm

Looks like the second system in eastern Micronesia is loosing model support.
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Re: Re:

#651 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 11, 2015 7:03 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
RobWESTPACWX wrote:Also do want to note if we get a named storm in December it will be the first time in recorded history for one to occur every month.

Got it!


Amazing!

Truly a year round record of any basin!
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#652 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 12, 2015 6:03 am

Is a very large system that will likely take time to consolidate. That's why the models especially EURO and GFS aren't developing this plus add in the fact that the possibly cold surge that might affect Melor might prevent it's developement. Still a huge rainmake for the islands.

Image
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#653 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 5:01 am

97W THREAD

:uarrow: :uarrow:

Hyperlink to the area southeast of Guam
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#654 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 14, 2015 7:32 am

Truly impressive...Melor is now the 20th typhoon of the season. The most on record tying 2004...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=117741
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#655 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Dec 14, 2015 11:51 am

euro6208 wrote:Truly impressive...Melor is now the 20th typhoon of the season. The most on record tying 2004...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=117741


By my count, we're at 21 typhoons (JTWC), which is still under 1997's 23. I also have 18 JMA typhoons, which is under the 20 from 1989. My numbers go back to 1977.
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#656 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:55 pm

Looks like that's it for this season. Models keep the basin quiet until next month, when the 2016 season officially starts... :eek:
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#657 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:12 pm

Image

What a record breaking season.

With an ACE of 478.335, 2015 is 3rd place all time...
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Dec 20, 2015 5:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#658 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 20, 2015 5:23 am

Another record this season...Melor as a category 3+ made it the 16th typhoon to do so this season breaking the old record of 15 way back in 1965!
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#659 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 20, 2015 6:51 am

Thanks to the WPAC...

This year broke the record for most Cat 4-5 in the Northern Hemisphere with 26 of them and about more than half of that occurring in the area with 14...

Previous record was 18 for both 1997 and 2004 in the NHEM...
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#660 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 20, 2015 1:32 pm

The season isn't over yet.

Tropical Depression 98W
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