2015 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#421 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 18, 2015 2:50 pm

Image

Image

Goni and Atsani with peaks of 880's and 890's...

This will be a sight to behold...
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#422 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 18, 2015 3:17 pm

WOW...

Forecast for ACE next 7 days is off the charts...

Image
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#423 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:44 am

Wow!

Goni and Atsani...

Image
Image
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#424 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 4:18 pm

Image

Out of 12 hurricanes and typhoons of Cat 4 and 5, eight of them in the WPAC...

The previous earliest date for the 12th was back in Sept 2004...
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#425 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 4:21 pm

It has happened only 5 times since 1950 that Simultaneous super typhoons have coexisted...

Image

Can Goni and Atsani become the 6th?
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#426 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 4:58 pm

Interestingly, EURO trying to develop Etau from a disturbance from the CPAC that moves into the area, makes it a TS in 144 hours, TY in 168 hours and does a fujiwhara with recurving Atsani....

It's currently tagged as an Invest but no number...

TXPN26 KNES 191747
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 19/1730Z

C. 14.9N

D. 178.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING WRAPS .25 ON LOG-10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF
1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#427 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:06 pm

Gonna be a long road ahead...couple of lows lined up which one will develop?

Time will tell...

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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#428 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:38 pm

With Atsani becoming the 5th Cat 5 of the year, 2015 is still ahead of the record 10 Cat 5's of 1997 which saw it's 5th Cat 5 from Super Typhoon Oliwa on September 9th.

More than 3 weeks early...
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#429 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:42 pm

Nice portrait of the WPac featuring the twins from several hours ago.

Image
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Re:

#430 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:50 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Nice portrait of the WPac featuring the twins from several hours ago.

Image


18 years ago last time this happened, 2 months apart in the last Super Nino... :eek:


Image
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#431 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:03 pm

The bugger just on the other side of the dateline has been tagged as 94C. It will likely cross into the WPac pretty soon.

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Re: Re:

#432 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:36 pm

euro6208 wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Nice portrait of the WPac featuring the twins from several hours ago.



18 years ago last time this happened, 2 months apart in the last Super Nino... :eek:


You keep bringing up Ivan and Joan but Goni and Astani don't really compare to those two since one was a cat 4 and one was a cat 5 briefly. I'm sure there are other twin typhoons you can compare this to. Seeing Ivan and Joan like storms could still happen this year but it's rare.
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#433 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:34 am

galaxy401 wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Nice portrait of the WPac featuring the twins from several hours ago.



18 years ago last time this happened, 2 months apart in the last Super Nino... :eek:


You keep bringing up Ivan and Joan but Goni and Astani don't really compare to those two since one was a cat 4 and one was a cat 5 briefly. I'm sure there are other twin typhoons you can compare this to. Seeing Ivan and Joan like storms could still happen this year but it's rare.



Brace yourselves, we're about to enter the last quarter of 2015 (Expected Peak of EL NINO) - things are going to get more exciting especially from the middle of Sept until end of the year, i expect to see some really wild typhoons on October though.
Who knows if we'll witness better twins or triplets or quadruplets during this coming "ber" months??
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#434 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:08 am

While I agree that Goni and Atsani are not quite there yet to match 1997's Ivan and Joan, this is already an incredible feat. To note that these two formed without the aid of strong MJO signal over the WPAC or a CCKW... Besides it is only August. With this lingering El Nino, the typhoon season is well extended until December so we'll never know if this is all the WPAC has got. :lol:
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#435 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:03 am

mrbagyo wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:

18 years ago last time this happened, 2 months apart in the last Super Nino... :eek:


You keep bringing up Ivan and Joan but Goni and Astani don't really compare to those two since one was a cat 4 and one was a cat 5 briefly. I'm sure there are other twin typhoons you can compare this to. Seeing Ivan and Joan like storms could still happen this year but it's rare.



Brace yourselves, we're about to enter the last quarter of 2015 (Expected Peak of EL NINO) - things are going to get more exciting especially from the middle of Sept until end of the year, i expect to see some really wild typhoons on October though.
Who knows if we'll witness better twins or triplets or quadruplets during this coming "ber" months??


Agreed. This is what 1997 delivered from September to December. 2015 is still way ahead of that year...

Image

Although post analysis has Keith peaking at 155 knots, that's six Cat 5's with three peaking at 160 knots and end of the year STY Paka Leveling Guam!
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#436 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:29 am

:uarrow: What's happening now is amazing but your hyping is getting annoying :lol:
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Re:

#437 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:34 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote::uarrow: What's happening now is amazing but your hyping is getting annoying :lol:


Not hyping but it's based on actual events :lol:
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Re: Re:

#438 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:33 am

euro6208 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote::uarrow: What's happening now is amazing but your hyping is getting annoying :lol:


Not hyping but it's based on actual events :lol:

I mean about Goni and Atsani. Not even close to Ivan and Joan
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#439 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:31 am

galaxy401 wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Models now hinting on Krovanh after Etau and Vamco...


Are you certain that storm will be Krovanh? What if that one is Etau or Vamco?


Well the EURO develops Etau but doesn't develop anymore systems after. GFS still develops 2 or 3 weak systems...
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#440 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:37 am

Well the models have backed off with EURO no longer showing Etau and the GFS no longer developing the 2-3 weak systems...All models except the CMC, (which develops another twin typhoons near the Philippines}, indicates a quiet last week for August for now.

Here comes September...
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