2015 WPAC Season

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cycloneye
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2015 WPAC Season

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 23, 2014 12:26 pm

I think it may be good to start this thread days before 2014 as the models are showing things during the first days of 2015. My prediction (Non-Scientific) for the 2015 season is 27/15/9.Let's see how the season pans out in terms of not having big threats by supertyhoons (Like a Haiyan) to any islands or countries in the basin so post away folks.

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typho ... e/monthly/

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typho ... e/monthly/

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typho ... te.html.en

Here are the next names (If Jangmi is used from 99W)

Mekkhala
Higos
Bavi
Maysak
Haishen
Noul
Dolphin
Kujira
Chan-hom
Linfa
Nangka
Soudelor
Molave
Goni
Atsani
Etau
Vamco
Krovanh
Dujuan
Mujigae
Choi-wan
Koppu
Champi
In-fa
Melor
Nepartak
Lupit
Mirinae

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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#2 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 23, 2014 1:19 pm

I was debating when to start this thread since our 2014 season isn't over! Typhoon season is YEAR ROUND so we must prepare for a new season beginning January 1! I am not familiar with this PDO but with an incoming el nino, I am sure that we will witness another incredible season...

Between 2000 - 2013, Earth averaged five Category 5 storms per year, with 51% of these occurring in the Western Pacific.

Home to the warmest waters in the world, more tropical cyclones make landfall in the west pacific than in any basin in the world a majority of these become Major typhoons...

So while residents of other basins especially from the Northern Hemisphere relaxes and waits for their season, residents from the WPAC are already in their season and come May and June, (official start of the EPAC and ATL seasons), WPAC residents are already in the midst of their terrible season and should worsen...


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Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Dec 23, 2014 2:06 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 23, 2014 1:25 pm

euro6208 wrote:I was debating when to start this thread since our 2014 season isn't over! Typhoon season is YEAR ROUND so we must prepare for a new season beginning January 1!

Between 2000 - 2013, Earth averaged five Category 5 storms per year, with 51% of these occurring in the Western Pacific.

http://i.imgur.com/EwovLtw.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/zoV4zDH.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/nSwh2cp.gif


If the models have not shown anything,the thread would not be up on December 23rd :) Thanks for posting the general information about how the basin has done in the past years and decades.
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#4 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Dec 23, 2014 11:07 pm

2003 all over again... Same WMO and PAGASA lists.
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#5 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 26, 2014 7:13 am

euro6208 wrote:Now let's add Super Typhoon Vongfong to the +155 knots club to occur since 1952 in the WPAC...Amazing

1952258N18178 1952091718 160.0 13W:OLIVE
1952258N18178 1952091800 160.0 13W:OLIVE
1952296N06152 1952102600 160.0 20W:WILMA
1952296N06152 1952102606 160.0 20W:WILMA
1952363N07170 1952123112 160.0 28W:HESTER
1952363N07170 1952123118 160.0 28W:HESTER
1952363N07170 1953010100 160.0 28W:HESTER
1953219N08155 1953081118 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081200 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081206 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081212 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081218 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081300 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081306 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081312 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081318 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081400 160.0 08W:NINA
1955346N06142 1955121512 180.0 22W:RUTH
1955346N06142 1955121518 165.0 22W:RUTH
1956207N13145 1956073000 155.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073006 160.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073012 155.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073018 155.0 06W:WANDA
1957311N06171 1957111606 160.0 20W:LOLA
1957311N06171 1957111612 160.0 20W:LOLA
1958143N06158 1958052818 155.0 02W:PHYLLIS
1958143N06158 1958052900 160.0 02W:PHYLLIS
1958240N08146 1958090112 160.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090118 165.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090200 165.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090206 160.0 13W:GRACE
1958263N13148 1958092406 160.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092412 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092418 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092500 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092506 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092512 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092518 160.0 15W:IDA
1959236N12139 1959082818 155.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082900 165.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082906 170.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082912 160.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959254N14148 1959091500 160.0 SARAH
1959254N14148 1959091506 165.0 SARAH
1959263N11160 1959092306 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092312 165.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092318 165.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092400 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092406 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092412 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092418 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092500 155.0 VERA
1961248N18155 1961091112 155.0 PAMELA
1961250N07173 1961091000 160.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091006 165.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091012 175.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091018 175.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091100 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091106 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091112 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091118 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091200 185.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091206 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091212 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091218 170.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091300 170.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091306 160.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091312 160.0 NANCY
1961276N22152 1961100618 160.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100700 175.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100706 180.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100712 170.0 VIOLET
1962224N11151 1962081618 160.0 RUTH:SARAH
1962224N11151 1962081700 160.0 RUTH:SARAH
1962311N06154 1962110900 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110906 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110912 155.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110918 155.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962111300 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962111306 160.0 KAREN
1964247N09159 1964090618 155.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090700 165.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090706 170.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090712 165.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090718 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090800 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090806 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090812 160.0 SALLY
1964319N08141 1964111800 155.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111806 165.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111812 165.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111818 160.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964344N06153 1964121200 155.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121206 160.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121212 165.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121218 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121300 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121306 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121312 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121318 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121400 170.0 OPAL
1965161N09151 1965061706 160.0 DINAH
1966171N09151 1966062600 170.0 KIT
1966171N09151 1966062606 170.0 KIT
1966171N09151 1966062612 170.0 KIT
1967241N15170 1967090312 155.0 OPAL
1967283N11150 1967101418 160.0 CARLA
1967283N11150 1967101500 160.0 CARLA
1967283N11150 1967101506 155.0 CARLA
1971311N06141 1971111118 155.0 IRMA
1971311N06141 1971111200 155.0 IRMA
1973274N10137 1973100600 160.0 NORA
1975319N08146 1975111912 160.0 JUNE
1979275N05159 1979101200 160.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101206 165.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101212 165.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101218 155.0 TIP
1984294N04163 1984102612 155.0 VANESSA

Recon ends in 1987

1992277N16140 1992101318 155.0 YVETTE
1992277N16140 1992101400 155.0 YVETTE
1992318N06182 1992112018 155.0 GAY
1992318N06182 1992112100 160.0 GAY
1992318N06182 1992112106 155.0 GAY
1995293N05177 1995110100 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110106 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110112 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110118 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110200 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110206 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110212 155.0 ANGELA
1997283N07177 1997101712 155.0 IVAN
1997283N07177 1997101718 160.0 IVAN
1997284N04179 1997101706 160.0 JOAN
1997284N04179 1997101712 160.0 JOAN
1997299N07169 1997110112 155.0 KEITH:KETTH
1997299N07169 1997110218 155.0 KEITH:KETTH
1997333N06194 1997121718 155.0 PAKA:PAKA
1997333N06194 1997121800 160.0 PAKA:PAKA
1998281N11151 1998101312 155.0 ZEB
1998281N11151 1998101318 155.0 ZEB
1998281N11151 1998101400 155.0 ZEB
2000125N06136 2000050918 155.0 DAMRCY:DAMREY
2001347N04162 2001122300 155.0 FAXAI
2004164N06139 2004061606 155.0 DIANMU
2004164N06139 2004061612 155.0 DIANMU
2004164N06139 2004061618 155.0 DIANMU
2004230N09172 2004082300 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082306 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082312 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082318 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082400 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082418 155.0 CHABA
2009325N06148 2009112512 155.0 NIDA
2009325N06148 2009112518 155.0 NIDA
2010285N13145 2010101712 160.0 MEGI (Should be 165 knots based on recon. Flight level winds supported surface winds of 200 mph sustained)
2010285N13145 2010101718 155.0 MEGI
2012 Sanba 155.0
2013 Haiyan 170.0 (8.0 dvorak, strongest storm in the world)
2014 Vongfong 155.0

Already FOUR since 2010 including 2 record breaking typhoons that maxed out between 165 to 180 knots...Megi and Haiyan...


Since Vongfong was added in October, 2 more reached Category 6 strength if there is one...

Let's add, Super Typhoon Nuri and Super Typhoon Hagupit both peaking in November and December...That's 3 alone in 2014...

Will more +155 knot monsters develop this year? :eek:
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 28, 2014 12:26 pm

Models are developing Mekkhala first to second week of January...

Image
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 30, 2014 11:19 am

GFS has a TS making landfall by January 10 in same area as Jangmi did,however is still out in time so it can change. But ECMWF doesn't have anything by that time.

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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#8 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 30, 2014 1:07 pm

Fitting name for the next storm...

Mekkhala means Angel of Thunder...
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#9 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 31, 2014 12:50 pm

Today marks the beginning of the 2015 Western North Pacific Typhoon Season
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 31, 2014 12:58 pm

To all our friends in the WPAC basin happy new year.

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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#11 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 31, 2014 1:12 pm

GFS still latching onto a tropical storm east of Mindanao but quickly weakens it...
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#12 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 31, 2014 2:04 pm

mrbagyo wrote:Today marks the beginning of the 2015 Western North Pacific Typhoon Season
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!


Here hoping for a less destructive and less active season with many fishes :D
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#13 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 7:22 am

Image
Image
Image
Image

Latest for the new season...
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#14 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 7:50 am

Image

Here we go!
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#15 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 8:50 am

Image
Image
Image
Image

Strong Kelvin wave and Moderate MJO moving through...Saving grace? It's the winter months...or else we should see an explosion of activity...
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#16 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 9:10 am

GFS now recurves tropical storm Mekkhala and misses Okinawa to the east while Parallel keeps it east of Visayas...
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:18 pm

Stronger run by operational 12z GFS while the parallel is weak but ECMWF still doesn't have anything.

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#18 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Jan 01, 2015 9:57 pm

I will be conservative and my numbers are 24/15/6.. hehe I'm just too excited :lol:
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#19 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:47 am

Image
Image

Mekkhala hits Visayas and recurves while another LOW develops near Guam...
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#20 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:30 am

:uarrow: LOL I think we should follow the new Parallel GFS. It is much more stable and reliable compared to the current GFS...
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