2015 WPAC Season

[1900hurricane]

Also really curious to see the models bringing Ignacio into the WPac at ~35*N.

[euro6208]

06Z with Etau forming east of the vast Marshall Islands and strengthens it to almost a Category 5!

[euro6208]

GFS has dropped the idea of a Category 5 with the latest 18Z run showing the development of twins, one east and the other west of the dateline at a fairly high latitude 20N moving eastward...

[euro6208]

Nasa has a system out to your west euro @120hrs model does well at sniffing em out.

First day of spring down here season is getting closer

String of pearls...

Right to Left:

Jimena, Ignacio, Kilo, (possibly Etau?), and a midget looking Vamco near Guam?

This will be interesting...

[euro6208]

Well EURO has swtiched from developing weak Etau near the dateline but now develops twins, Etau and Vamco, and looks poised to become another monsters...

[euro6208]

18Z GFS was still developing twins with a Cat 5 monster.



Latest 06Z is more eastward and less aggressive with the other twin possibly developing in the CPAC...

[euro6208]

INVEST 92W THREAD

Western system depicted by EURO gets tagged...

[euro6208]

Long range EURO and GFS still trying to develop Vamco near the dateline...

[euro6208]

GFS hinting Krovanh and Dujuan near the dateline after a monster Vamco luzon landfall...

[dexterlabio]

^isn't unusual IMO I've seen more unusual tracks of small TC's getting sucked into a larger vortex.

[dexterlabio]

I think ACE shy of 500 at the end of the year for WPAC alone isn't out of the question. Or perhaps a very real and likely possibility.

[dexterlabio]

^
That's interesting. Did he say specifically how the twins affected the input to the models? Maybe the error lies in the steering. Models often show direct cyclone interaction in their outputs but they almost never happen, especially in the long-range runs.

[euro6208]

GFS still showing triplets in the area highlighted by a monster typhoon luzon landfall...

EURO not as robust as earlier. It only develops some weak circulations...

[1900hurricane]

Guidance keeps backing off and postponing development run after run. I wonder what the deal is in the WPac right now. If it weren't for Kilo crossing over, ACE would have flatlined for some time.

[euro6208]

EURO still has the WPAC in recharge mode with a couple of LPA's lined up in the monsoon trough...

[euro6208]

00Z GFS no longer showing a monster luzon typhoon but keeps it far away reaching a peak low of 952 as it skirts Tokyo...

Etau followed by maybe Vamco...

[euro6208]

06Z GFS back to showing triplets. Has twin storms in the P.I sea with one of them hitting Tokyo head on and long range has another system developing in the SCS...

[euro6208]

Over the West Pacific, dynamical models increasingly favor the potential for tropical cyclone formation over the West Pacific. During the remainder of Week-1, the best potential for development lies between the Date Line and 160E, and this region shifts westward during Week-2. There is also a low potential for tropical or subtropical cyclogenesis just east of Taiwan.

[euro6208]

EURO from recharge mode to 4 developing cyclone...

[euro6208]

00Z still showing an active mid September with 4 TC's in the region and 1 in the CPAC...