2015 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

GFS also showing an active month with 5 possible TC'S!

[Yellow Evan]

Greatest Model run of all time

[1900hurricane]

Ha, seven storms on one monsoon trough extending from the South China Sea to the CPac might be a bit extreme, but all the models are latching onto the feature and developing multiple tropical cyclones from it in 7-10 days time. After somewhat of a hiatus, it looks like we'll be tracking a busy WPac once again.

[1900hurricane]

The disturbance in the SW South China Sea might need to be declared an invest soon. At the moment at least, it looks good.

[euro6208]

EURO still on the rampage. Headliner is a monster brewing typhoon that originates east of the Marianas but passes north of the islands. Then it's all off...

[euro6208]

Latest 00z Euro has a big change. It doesn't develop the long tracking typhoon but does develop a SCS typhoon making landfall over Vietnam followed by 2 more in the open ocean...

[euro6208]

Latest runs show an even quieter month with GFS and EURO hinting on only 1 storm in their runs compared to the multiple storms in previous...

Both develops Vamco and makes landfall over Vietnam. EURO crosses it over to the BOB while GFS dissipates it overland..

[euro6208]

Very large area shaded with potential for millions to get affected by something...

[euro6208]

Gearing up for prime time...

Large area of 30C waters with potential pressure and winds off the charts. Depth 26C isotherm, sst, and TCHP is plentiful.

[euro6208]

EURO still develops the SCS system but weaker but 00Z GFS doesn't develop it anymore.

It instead develops 2 typhoons, Vamco and Krovanh, east of the Marianas.

[euro6208]

06Z GFS has scrapped the idea of 00Z and doesn't develop anything...

[euro6208]

Indeed, a large scale convectively suppressed dry phrase of the kelvin has been in the basin since the start of the month. It has weakened some but still kinda strong over the area. It's limiting the development of the storms for now but right behind this is the wet phrase crossing over the maritime continent...

[euro6208]

Indeed, a large scale convectively suppressed dry phrase of the kelvin has been in the basin since the start of the month. It has weakened some but still kinda strong over the area. It's limiting the development of the storms for now but right behind this is the wet phrase crossing over the maritime continent...

Following behind this Kelvin is an MJO...I see a very active period ahead...

[euro6208]

12Z EURO showing Vamco making landfall and Krovanh developing east of the Marianas hitting as a typhoon...

[euro6208]

18Z is weaker on Vamco only peaking it at 1003, something we are not familiar with in this basin before heading inland

It also develops Krovanh and takes it as a weak storm across the NMI, recurves it, and sideswipes Japan as a Typhoon...

[euro6208]

Stats so far on this record season continues on a record pace.

September 7th...

[euro6208]

Even JMA develops the SCS system but keeps it very weak...



So does NAVGEM. Past runs had it as a typhoon but now weaker...



Not going to post the CMC run as it develops 5 unrealistic systems

EURO and GFS basically the same, develops weak Vamco but doesn't develop anything after although GFS has dropped a major typhoon east of the Marianas east of the Marianas...

[euro6208]

Looking like the disturbance east of us is forecast by the EURO to strengthen into our 14th typhoon while GFS takes it to a weak TS and both recurves it but barely north of the Marianas...

Can't post model runs am at work busy...

[1900hurricane]

As of Friday's 12Z runs, both the GFS and ECMWF (operational and ensemble) were in agreement at tau 120 of having a tropical cyclone east of the northern Marianas and another broad, sprawling one in the South China Sea. 95W is currently tagged in the South China Sea, and healthy convection continues to fire on the monsoon trough east of the Marianas, so these two areas look to be the next game in town.

[euro6208]

Large area with millions in the path...