Big ones for 2015

[Hurricaneman]

Ana: 45mph tropical storm forms from a frontal low south of Bermuda June 20th

Bill: 65mph tropical storm forms east of Cape Hatteras and recurves out to sea July 15th

Claudette: forms midway between the Cape Verdes and Lesser antilles on August 10th and makes landfall near ST Kitts as a 70mph Tropical storm on August 12th and continues to head WNW strengthening and makes landfall as a 80mph hurricane in the Bahamas on August 15th and proceeds to head WNW making landfall in WPB, FL as a 100mph hurricane on August 16th moving north and dying in Geogia

Danny: first major US landfall since 2005. This starts as an area of low pressure off of the Western Florida coast and bombs out in the GOM at the same time around August 25th and a day later its a 125mph hurricane heading west to north of due west making landfall around Galveston as a 130mph hurricane on August 31st

Erika: Forms near the Cape Verdes around September 5th and becomes a Hurricane as it heads north out to sea as a 80mph hurricane

Fred: forms from a sheared mess near the Texas coast and makes landfall as a 40mph tropical storm September 6th

Grace: forms near Bermuda September 10th and strengthens to a 65mph TS and makes landfall in Buzzards Bay as a 45mph TS September 12th

Henri: The true big one of the season. this forms from a Tropical wave near the Cape Verdes around September 13rd and tracks WNW missing the Lesser antilles as a cat 4 150mph hurricane September 18th and it continues WNW threatening Florida as a 160mph Hurricane turns North and weakens as it makes landfall near Wrightsville Beach NC as a 120mph hurricane September 25th making it the strongest NC landfall since Fran

Ida: forms in the Carribean on October 19th and moves north sideswiping Cancun as a 75mph hurricane on October 24th and makes a second landfall near Adams Beach, FL as a 75mph hurricane October 25th

Joaquin: Forms from a subtropical disturbance November 23rd and hits bermuda as a 50mph TS November 24th

as you can see this is my guess based on when we come out of the major hurricane landfall droughts it can be quite ugly and for these guesses its for entertainment purposes only as its still far out and its impossible to really guess what the hurricane season will be.

Id like to see your guesses and compare them at the end of the 2015 hurricane season


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ptarmigan]

I notice some of the really bad seasons happened in years with 5 at the end like 1935, 1945, 1955, 1965, 1975, 1985, 1995, and 2005. I wonder what 2015 will hold.

[Hurricaneman]

Since 1900 here are the list of named storms that made landfalls in the years ending in 5

2005
Dennis 125mph
Katrina 125mph
Wilma 120mph
Rita 115mph
Ophelia 80mph
Cindy 75mph
Arlene 60mph
Tammy 50mph

1995
Opal 115mph
Erin 100mph
Allison 70mph
Dean 45mph
Jerry 40mph

1985
Elena 120mph
Gloria 105mph
Kate 105mph
Danny 90mph
Bob 75mph
Juan 75mph
Henri 40mph
Isabel 40mph

1975
Eloise 125mph

1965
Betsy 155mph
TS1 50mph

1955
Connie 75mph
Diane 75mph
Ione 75mph
Brenda 70mph
TS5 45mph

1945
Hurricane 9 135mph
Hurricane 5 115mph
Hurricane 1 75mph
Tropical Storm 7 40mph

1935
Hurricane 3 185mph
Hurricane 7 75mph

1925
Tropical Storm 4 65mph

1915
Hurricane 2 135mph
Hurricane 6 130mph
Hurricane 4 90mph
Hurricane 1 75mph

1905
Tropical Storm 3 50mph
Tropical Storm 5 50mph


so looking at this the odds are for a bad landfall based on these numbers but there are also 2 years that didn't really have a devestating landfall so my guess goes along with the statistical averages with years ending in 5 in the OP


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[PurpleLemonBurrito]

Kevin or Linda (EPac)

[angelwing]

Hmmm, just looked at the names and just by "feeling":

Claudette--Cat 3
Erika------Cat 1
Fred-Tropical Storm
Kate----Cat 4
Mindy---a windy Cat 1

Larry also is bothering me...maybe a Cat 4-5

****Disclaimer--just a feeling,. nothing based on science****

[Andrew92]

I don't know how far we'll get, but Danny definitely sticks out to me. If we make it far enough, I could also see Larry.

-Andrew92

[crownweather]

I found the years ending in 5 posts very interesting and a bit intriguing, so I went back even further to 1851 and not only looked at US landfalls, but also Caribbean impacts as well. From there, I calculated the statistical probabilities for a tropical storm, hurricane or major hurricane landfall for years ending in 5. This is what I found:

US East Coast & US Gulf Coast:
Tropical Storm Impact: 100 percent chance of a tropical storm landfall. 16 of the last 16 years ending in 5 had at least a tropical storm impact along the US coastline.

Hurricane Impact: 81 percent chance of a hurricane landfall. 13 of the last 16 years ending in 5 had at least a hurricane impact along the US coastline.

Major Hurricane Impact: 63 percent chance of a major hurricane landfall. 10 of the last 16 years ending in 5 had a major hurricane (Category 3, 4 or 5) impact along the US coastline.

Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Impact: 75 percent chance of a tropical storm landfall. 12 of the last 16 years ending in 5 had at least a tropical storm impact in the Caribbean.

Hurricane Impact: 50 percent chance of a hurricane landfall. 8 of the last 16 years ending in 5 had at least a hurricane impact in the Caribbean.

Major Hurricane Impact: 31 percent chance of a major hurricane landfall. 5 of the last 16 years ending in 5 had a major hurricane (Category 3, 4 or 5) impact in the Caribbean.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WPAC IMO

Higos early typhoon strike for Yap/Palau
Noul
Linfa
Etau
Champi worst for the Philippines :O

[Alyono]

...
Danny: first major US landfall since 2005. This starts as an area of low pressure off of the Western Florida coast and bombs out in the GOM at the same time around August 25th and a day later its a 125mph hurricane heading west to north of due west making landfall around Galveston as a 130mph hurricane on August 31st

Henri: The true big one of the season. this forms from a Tropical wave near the Cape Verdes around September 13rd and tracks WNW missing the Lesser antilles as a cat 4 150mph hurricane September 18th and it continues WNW threatening Florida as a 160mph Hurricane turns North and weakens as it makes landfall near Wrightsville Beach NC as a 120mph hurricane September 25th making it the strongest NC landfall since Fran

so let me understand something, a cat 3 hitting Cape Fear is going to be a bigger deal than a cat 4 hitting Houston/Galveston?

You have any idea what a cat 4 hitting just south of Galveston would do not just to the landfall area but to the entire country? Were talking about a significantly worse than Katrina impact, as well as massive economic problems due to the oil refineries going under water

[Hurricaneman]

so let me understand something, a cat 3 hitting Cape Fear is going to be a bigger deal than a cat 4 hitting Houston/Galveston?

You have any idea what a cat 4 hitting just south of Galveston would do not just to the landfall area but to the entire country? Were talking about a significantly worse than Katrina impact, as well as massive economic problems due to the oil refineries going under water

I was going off of peak strength, but do see your point as that would almost be worst case senario economically and could be quite deadly so maybe big one part 1 and 2 with part 1 being the bad one

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

To go further with my Danny thoughts, I'm agreeing more and more with Hurricaneman as time goes by for some reason.

To set a backdrop, the US Gulf Coast hasn't been hit by a hurricane with a Category 3 type pressure or lower since 2008 (lower than 965 mb, and Ike was in the 950's at landfall, even as a Category 2 by wind), and the longest wait between such storms as far as I know in this part of the world is Elena in September 1985 to Andrew in August 1992. It's always tough to beat records like this, though we could come close this time.

The one thing that could curtail a long-tracker would be below-normal instability that has been ongoing for the past few hurricane seasons, which some long-range models are predicting to continue (exactly how skillful such predictions are, I am somewhat skeptical, but recent trends are leading me to agree with this line of thinking). But here's a thought: I know it's extremely rare, happening only three times since we've had satellites (Anita in 1977, Alicia in 1983, and Bret in 1999)....but I am getting a vibe that this big one could form directly in the Gulf, maybe off Florida, and move very slowly over the Loop Current under favorable conditions and explode into a monster. Steering currents dictate after it does this (about three days after initial development or so), it has to make a move, and in about 48 hours or so after this incredible feat, it comes onshore somewhere as a very powerful hurricane, but weakened somewhat due to eyewall replacement cycles and cooler water.

I still get the sensation of only one name for such a storm if it happens this year, and it's Danny. And the place I have in mind is somewhere on the Upper Texas and/or western Louisiana coast. Just something about that name really bothers me for this year, I don't know what.

As for the rest of the names, I'm really just not getting much of a feeling with just about any of the other names right now. For sure, I think one or two will be a tropical storm that causes some headache somewhere. I'm kind of thinking about Ana or Erika filling such a role for the US. As for my earlier Larry thought, I'm not sure we will get down that far, but if we do, I could see this being a classic Cuba-to-Bahamas hurricane in October or maybe November, gaining strength over untapped western Caribbean waters. Instability and limited time over water will hinder intensity somewhat, perhaps to a Category 2, but still capable of widespread damage.

I tend to think Danny also won't be the only major of the year, with one other storm being a beautiful fish that stays far from any land, including Bermuda. I'm thinking that could be Ida perhaps.

Now watch me be all wrong about all of this! I certainly hope I am wrong about Danny.

-Andrew92

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Now why should Danny be the name that gives Andrew that "vibe"?

As a psychologist and onomastician I wonder if it's because among the male names on the first half of this year's list, Danny is the one that would be most likely to be the name of an American man in his 20s.

Bill and Fred are elderly names these days. (Though William is still common on birth certificates, younger Williams tend to be called Will. The nickname Bill is out of style.)

Henry is coming back as a boy's name, but most of them are still small boys now. And the French form Henri also probably just doesn't sound "tough" to most Americans.

Daniel became a top ten name for boys in the USA in 1981 and peaked at #5 in 1990 -- so there lots of them are in their early 20s right now. That probably makes Danny, despite its friendly -y ending, sound tougher and more dangerous to the average American than Bill, Fred, or Henri do.

As usual I'm hoping for any retired names (if there are any) to be among those that have been on the list ever since it started in 1979. Among the first ten names, that's now only Ana, Claudette, and Henri.

[TheStormExpert]

...snip
Claudette: forms midway between the Cape Verdes and Lesser antilles on August 10th and makes landfall near ST Kitts as a 70mph Tropical storm on August 12th and continues to head WNW strengthening and makes landfall as a 80mph hurricane in the Bahamas on August 15th and proceeds to head WNW making landfall in WPB, FL as a 100mph hurricane on August 16th moving north and dying in Geogia...

You sure love teasing folks here in coastal Palm Beach County each year with your predictions of what you think could happen with the upcoming seasons. I've noticed each year you list one storm making landfall in Palm Beach, FL. Can't remember the last time a hurricane has made landfall on Palm Beach from the east but I'm assuming it was the late 1940's, early 1950's which has been a good while which would mean we are kind of overdue.

Thankfully for the past 5-6 years the steering patterns have been unfavorable for any Florida hits from the east, but from the west that is a different story. Hopefully our luck continues on for a while longer. Florida is basically a ticking time bomb just waiting to go off one of these years with most places in Florida being overdue for a hurricane hit since there has not been a hurricane hit in Florida since 2005.

[Bocadude85]

David in 1979 made landfall in Palm Beach from the east, Part of Frances and Jeanne's eye did cross over Northern Palm Beach county even though they don't count as a landfall in the county.

[PurpleLemonBurrito]

Now why should Danny be the name that gives Andrew that "vibe"?

As a psychologist and onomastician I wonder if it's because among the male names on the first half of this year's list, Danny is the one that would be most likely to be the name of an American man in his 20s.

Bill and Fred are elderly names these days. (Though William is still common on birth certificates, younger Williams tend to be called Will. The nickname Bill is out of style.)

Henry is coming back as a boy's name, but most of them are still small boys now. And the French form Henri also probably just doesn't sound "tough" to most Americans.

Daniel became a top ten name for boys in the USA in 1981 and peaked at #5 in 1990 -- so there lots of them are in their early 20s right now. That probably makes Danny, despite its friendly -y ending, sound tougher and more dangerous to the average American than Bill, Fred, or Henri do.

As usual I'm hoping for any retired names (if there are any) to be among those that have been on the list ever since it started in 1979. Among the first ten names, that's now only Ana, Claudette, and Henri.

What about Epac?

[Hurricaneman]

Now why should Danny be the name that gives Andrew that "vibe"?

As a psychologist and onomastician I wonder if it's because among the male names on the first half of this year's list, Danny is the one that would be most likely to be the name of an American man in his 20s.

Bill and Fred are elderly names these days. (Though William is still common on birth certificates, younger Williams tend to be called Will. The nickname Bill is out of style.)

Henry is coming back as a boy's name, but most of them are still small boys now. And the French form Henri also probably just doesn't sound "tough" to most Americans.

Daniel became a top ten name for boys in the USA in 1981 and peaked at #5 in 1990 -- so there lots of them are in their early 20s right now. That probably makes Danny, despite its friendly -y ending, sound tougher and more dangerous to the average American than Bill, Fred, or Henri do.

As usual I'm hoping for any retired names (if there are any) to be among those that have been on the list ever since it started in 1979. Among the first ten names, that's now only Ana, Claudette, and Henri.

What about Epac?

Guilliermo has a Baja vibe to me

[PurpleLemonBurrito]

Now why should Danny be the name that gives Andrew that "vibe"?

As a psychologist and onomastician I wonder if it's because among the male names on the first half of this year's list, Danny is the one that would be most likely to be the name of an American man in his 20s.

Bill and Fred are elderly names these days. (Though William is still common on birth certificates, younger Williams tend to be called Will. The nickname Bill is out of style.)

Henry is coming back as a boy's name, but most of them are still small boys now. And the French form Henri also probably just doesn't sound "tough" to most Americans.

Daniel became a top ten name for boys in the USA in 1981 and peaked at #5 in 1990 -- so there lots of them are in their early 20s right now. That probably makes Danny, despite its friendly -y ending, sound tougher and more dangerous to the average American than Bill, Fred, or Henri do.

As usual I'm hoping for any retired names (if there are any) to be among those that have been on the list ever since it started in 1979. Among the first ten names, that's now only Ana, Claudette, and Henri.

What about Epac?

Guilliermo has a Baja vibe to me

I predict Olaf would drop inches of snow in the middle of the Pacific, active same time as Ela.

[xxxhumbertoxxx]

Hmmm, I was thinking for the Atlantic, Danny might be the big one. I really don't know, but he and Kate really stick out for me.

For the EPAC, it could be Jimena, but you can never tell... She has a Hawaii-ish vibe to me... She stands out for me too :o

[Yellow Evan]

For the EPAc, I fear the names Sandra and Marty.

[xxxhumbertoxxx]

For the EPAc, I fear the names Sandra and Marty.

Marty came all the way from 1985 in his DeLorean Time Machine to 2015!
Anyway, why Sandra and Marty? :o