2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Ntxw]

No hurricane west of 60. el nino doing quite well.

Problem with this is that Atlantic activity isn't based on what forms or happens west of 60, it's based on the entire basin, and this year appears that it will end quite active for being El Nino, especially considering it's the strongest on record (or headed that way at least.)

In the end though, NOAA ranks seasonal activity based on ACE whether it is above, near normal, or below normal. It is still less than half of what it should be to date. If the season ended today 2015 would rank as third or fourth quietest on record. But there is still the rest of September and October to go.

Here are the five biggest Nino year's ACE tallies since 1950. The bolded achieved trimonthlies of 2C or greater

1957- 84
1965- 84
1972- 28
1982- 29
1987- 34
1997- 40

[Hurricaneman]

All this MDR activity is making me think that the 2016 season will have similar MDR activity with less shear west of 50w which means it could be a big problem and not to mention much less in the Caribbean but the lesser values in the ENSO 1-2 region might be opening the MDR up to development especially eastern zones this year

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

No hurricane west of 60. el nino doing quite well.

Problem with this is that Atlantic activity isn't based on what forms or happens west of 60, it's based on the entire basin, and this year appears that it will end quite active for being El Nino, especially considering it's the strongest on record (or headed that way at least.)

In the end though, NOAA ranks seasonal activity based on ACE whether it is above, near normal, or below normal. It is still less than half of what it should be to date. If the season ended today 2015 would rank as third or fourth quietest on record. But there is still the rest of September and October to go.

still think we squeak out between 45 and 55 ace units

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

still think we squeak out between 45 and 55 ace units

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

To achieve this we will need two long tracking systems similar to Gonzalo of last season (~25 units). So roughly a cat 3/4 for several days and long recurve. Or two systems like a Nadine of 2012 looping around for a few weeks as a cat 1 or 2. If that occurs by October it should get us to near normal. By early October ACE average is about 80-85 units.

[Hammy]

still think we squeak out between 45 and 55 ace units

51 is the average for the last six strong El Ninos (1957, 65, 72, 82, 87, 97) so I'd say this is a reasonable guess.

[WPBWeather]

If this was supposed to be a SLOW year for the ATL then what will a BIG year in the ATL look like??

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Think el nino is doing quite well and making its presence known. Gulf and Caribbean dead. Weak short lived tropical storms and the shortest lived cat 3 I can remember tend to agree. ACE right now pretty much sums it up.

[Hammy]

Think el nino is doing quite well and making its presence known. Gulf and Caribbean dead. Weak short lived tropical storms and the shortest lived cat 3 I can remember tend to agree. ACE right now pretty much sums it up.

You have to admit it's still exceeding what most people on this board (and most forecasters for that matter) expected.

[ninel conde]

If this was supposed to be a SLOW year for the ATL then what will a BIG year in the ATL look like??

I consider it quite slow. What would a BIG year look like? taking away 2004/05 i could give a few examples. 1954/55/58/60/64/65/69/79/85/89/95/96/98/99. Im sure there are several more since 99 and more that i missed after 1954.

[ninel conde]

Think el nino is doing quite well and making its presence known. Gulf and Caribbean dead. Weak short lived tropical storms and the shortest lived cat 3 I can remember tend to agree. ACE right now pretty much sums it up.

You have to admit it's still exceeding what most people on this board (and most forecasters for that matter) expected.

Maybe LC will be closer than expected.

[WPBWeather]

Think el nino is doing quite well and making its presence known. Gulf and Caribbean dead. Weak short lived tropical storms and the shortest lived cat 3 I can remember tend to agree. ACE right now pretty much sums it up.

You have to admit it's still exceeding what most people on this board (and most forecasters for that matter) expected.

Maybe LC will be closer than expected.

Of course its NOT what Ninel and other MDR deniers said. But I like the guy/gal for always being consistent! Sort of like death and taxes... never going to get away from them.

[Hurricaneman]

If this was supposed to be a SLOW year for the ATL then what will a BIG year in the ATL look like??

according to the stats the ACE values are in the bottom 2 but I expect that not to last long I have the numbers and note that most of the lowest ACE numbers are El Ninos and these are since 1950

lowest 20

1983 17
1977 25
2015 25
1972 28
1982 29
1994 32
1991 34
1987 34
1970 34
1968 35
2013 36
1986 36
1962 36
1993 39
1997 40
1973 43
2009 53
1956 54
1974 61
1978 62

While this season will be in the bottom 20 in terms of ACE it probably will move out of the bottom 10 maybe rise above the bottom 15 seasons

the expectation I have for 2016 though is possibly a top 20 ACE season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So you're expecting some long lived long tracking hurricanes or a couple majors to boost that ace up? All the while we are already in the middle of september, interesting. Have a long way too go.

[Hurricaneman]

So you're expecting some long lived long tracking hurricanes or a couple majors to boost that ace up? All the while we are already in the middle of september, interesting. Have a long way too go.

To move out of the bottom 15 years in terms of ACE we need 40+ units thats the only reason I said maybe as I'm startong to think it may not happen

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ninel conde]

Of course its NOT what Ninel and other MDR deniers said. But I like the guy/gal for always being consistent! Sort of like death and taxes... never going to get away from them.[/quote][/quote][/quote]

My benchmark is how many hurricanes exist past 60w, and so far this season is tied for the slowest season.

[Hammy]

My benchmark is how many hurricanes exist past 60w, and so far this season is tied for the slowest season.

I do recall you saying there would be no Cape Verde season.

I can't disagree that the Caribbean/Gulf will likely be void of any stronger storms/hurricanes though.

[NDG]

Something is wrong with the shear index graphics for the GOM, East Coast, & Caribbean, there is no way shear is below average in all of these regions with 20-30 knots of shear just about the whole region. The only areas with shear below 20 knots of shear are right underneath the UL trough's which we know are not conducive for tropical development.

[wxman57]

As hostile as conditions are just about everywhere in the basin, I wouldn't be surprised if the ACE doesn't reach 30 this season.

[NDG]

While JB keeps posting how "warm" the north central Atlantic & eastern US coastal waters are he is not posting how hostile the atmosphere has been and will most likely continue to be in our part of the Atlantic this month so far, the only favorable area has been in the eastern MDR so no surprise that we have seen a fairly active CV season compared to '97.
He has also referenced September 2002 but the Caribbean and GOM was not as hostile as this September has been so far..





UL conditions were much better during September of 2002 compared to this year. Glad he has abandoned comparing this lately.

[Ntxw]

While JB keeps posting how "warm" the north central Atlantic & eastern US coastal waters are he is not posting how hostile the atmosphere has been and will most likely continue to be in our part of the Atlantic this month so far, the only favorable area has been in the eastern MDR so no surprise that we have seen a fairly active CV season compared to '97.
He has also referenced September 2002 but the Caribbean and GOM was not as hostile as this September has been so far..

An often confused method people like to reference is SST anomaly. An anomaly doesn't create or control weather or in this case fuel hurricanes, actual SST's do. Many areas even down in the Carib and MDR that is colder anoms has warmer SST's than the warm anomalies up north. It can sustain a tropical system. That's the big flaw that is often used. An anomaly can tell you how pressures (higher or lower) will set up and steering pattern as the atmosphere reacts to the actual SST's being warmer (cooler) in one region vs another and that is best to use SST anomalies as guidance.

Of course in the end the atmosphere dictates the conditions for tropical cyclones.