2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[cycloneye]

AMO is well down and that is not a good thing if you want to see a high frequency of TC's in the North Atlantic 2015 season.

[crownweather]

AMO is well down and that is not a good thing if you want to see a high frequency of TC's in the North Atlantic 2015 season.

http://i.imgur.com/7WkXard.png

Now, this raises the question - Is this the 20-40 year "flip" that the AMO goes through or is this an anomaly? Honestly, I'm not sure....I figured we still had another 10-15 years before this flip occurred (AMO/hurricane activity flip). I know wxman57 had mentioned that he didn't think the flip was occurring just yet and thought we had several more years before that occurred.

[ninel conde]

its hard to argue we are still in an active period when this season is likely to be deader than the last several dead seasons.

[cycloneye]

The news by ECMWF continues to not be good for big tropical activity in the North Atlantic as the MSLP update of Febuary for June,July and August shows extremly high pressures on most of the the basin.

[Alyono]

typical EC el niño bias there

[Steve]

its hard to argue we are still in an active period when this season is likely to be deader than the last several dead seasons.

Did you mean as far as US impacts or are you locked into season is dead mode again even though it's still 3 months before it begins? If you are not talking about US landfall impacts, your premise is wrong since most people would define "several" as at least 4 or 5. While the last 5 seasons may not have been 1998, 2005 or 1933 we did have:

2010: 19/12/5
2011: 19/7/4
2012: 19/10/2
2013: 14/2/0
2014: 8/6/2

5 year average is: 16/7/3 (15.8 / 7.4 / 2.6) which is ahead of the 50 or 100 year averages EACH for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. If you're talking about American landfall impacts, you probably should say so for clarity. However, I'm doubting that since you were replying to an Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation flip post.

1 of the last 5 years was below average in named storms and 1 was below average in IH's. It's irrelevant to argue "they count everything now" since they seem to miss naming the occasional short lived TS or STS far out in the Atlantic which to me makes it a wash.
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Too early to speculate much beyond atmospheric and oceanic hints, but my early guess for potential North American landfall impacts would be Mexico/South Texas and AL/FL line over to Maine. Much of the winter's trough axis has been angled toward the Panhandle. If that flips to strong high pressure during the peak, then any threats are further west (or recurves farther east). But if the winter pattern turns out to be a harbinger of eastern US troughiness by August/September, then that 1200 miles or so of latitude (roughly 69W over to 87W) could see some potential. It's way too early to speculate on numbers, but unless we go straight up neutral, I'd expect a somewhat down year similar to 2014 as far as numbers but not as far as patterns.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Wow that is a big sal outbreak for being late Febuary.Saved image.

[Riptide]

Figured you guys would of seen the long-range early season gulf storm on the GFS. Quite a consistent feature, been showing up 7 runs in a row now.

I think the East Atlantic is closed down for the season, most of the activity should be centered over the Gulf Stream like last year.

[Hurricaneman]

Figured you guys would of seen the long-range early season gulf storm on the GFS. Quite a consistent feature, been showing up 7 runs in a row now.

I think the East Atlantic is closed down for the season, most of the activity should be centered over the Gulf Stream like last year.

and maybe the Caribbean as it seems there is some with the normal ups and downs most of the time has had above normal instability in that region this year so far but is in a below normal instability pattern right now as there have been fronts passing through the Caribbean recently.

so based on the way the instability we may have a close to home type season focused on the Caribbean, Gulf, and east coast but with the ENSO not really making up its mind it could go either way come hurricane season in the Caribbean with either lesser Caribbean activity due to a traditional El Nino or what I'm going with a Possible El Nino Madoki or +Neutral which would open up the Caribbean so lets see where this goes

as for SSTs it seems as though the Subtropics, GOM and the Caribbean are above normal so that shouldn't be a problem for development in those regions but with the -AMO look it might be hard to get much going in the MDR

we may not know anything really concrete until May so stay tuned

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

Figured you guys would of seen the long-range early season gulf storm on the GFS. Quite a consistent feature, been showing up 7 runs in a row now.

I think the East Atlantic is closed down for the season, most of the activity should be centered over the Gulf Stream like last year.

and maybe the Caribbean as it seems there is some with the normal ups and downs most of the time has had above normal instability in that region this year so far but is in a below normal instability pattern right now as there have been fronts passing through the Caribbean recently.

so based on the way the instability we may have a close to home type season focused on the Caribbean, Gulf, and east coast but with the ENSO not really making up its mind it could go either way come hurricane season in the Caribbean with either lesser Caribbean activity due to a traditional El Nino or what I'm going with a Possible El Nino Madoki or +Neutral which would open up the Caribbean so lets see where this goes

as for SSTs it seems as though the Subtropics, GOM and the Caribbean are above normal so that shouldn't be a problem for development in those regions but with the -AMO look it might be hard to get much going in the MDR

we may not know anything really concrete until May so stay tuned

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Not trying to seem rude, but just pointing out during inactive season, it is commonly brought up from my observations that posters tend to fall under the belief that the home grown season will be actvie, yet never materializes.

With an active EPAC on the cards, it's hard to imagine a busy home grown season. EPAc and the +PDO would cause too much shear.

I'd look for the SE coast to once again be a hotspot in the ATL, based on continuity from past several seasons.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy,things are getting worse and worse among some factors one of them is the sst anomalies in the MDR and especially the Eastern Atlantic.Is March but is too cold out there and it will require a big warmup to turn things around. First post graphics.

[cycloneye]

The NAO has been very positive in the past couple of months and that is why the MDR is below average in the sst anomalies.Let's see if the NAO turns less positive to allow warming to take place in the next few weeks.

[cycloneye]

I found interesting what a blogger at WU said about the upcomming season. It summarizes all of what this thread is discussing of some factors.

Honestly, I don't see any great recent analogs for this season. The reason being, we've been in an active era since 1995, and this coming season, as well as the past two, simply haven't fit into an active era regime. Last year is probably the best I can think of off the top of my head. I'm sure there are some decent analogs from those "quiet era" years back in the 80s. But in the years I've been tracking hurricanes (not that many, obviously), I've never personally seen a setup this bad in terms of Atlantic tropical cyclones. WebberWeather made a great post the other day on this. Cold MDR, warm ENSO, and all the associated conditions they bring. High shear in the Gulf and Caribbean. Stable air in the MDR. The subtropical latitudes will probably be the places to watch this year. I'm more confident now that we are in fact establishing a new quiet era in the Atlantic, as we watch the AMO continue to tank. It may not happen all at once, the AMO may rebound and the "active era" may fight back for a year or two. We see the same thing with PDO shifts, such as the warm PDO burst we're seeing now in the closing stages of the cold PDO phase. But regarding the AMO and Atlantic hurricanes, the switch is on, and I think the next 20-30 years will feature many more quiet seasons than active ones. Only time will tell of course, as always.

[ninel conde]

Figured you guys would of seen the long-range early season gulf storm on the GFS. Quite a consistent feature, been showing up 7 runs in a row now.

I think the East Atlantic is closed down for the season, most of the activity should be centered over the Gulf Stream like last year.

and maybe the Caribbean as it seems there is some with the normal ups and downs most of the time has had above normal instability in that region this year so far but is in a below normal instability pattern right now as there have been fronts passing through the Caribbean recently.

so based on the way the instability we may have a close to home type season focused on the Caribbean, Gulf, and east coast but with the ENSO not really making up its mind it could go either way come hurricane season in the Caribbean with either lesser Caribbean activity due to a traditional El Nino or what I'm going with a Possible El Nino Madoki or +Neutral which would open up the Caribbean so lets see where this goes

as for SSTs it seems as though the Subtropics, GOM and the Caribbean are above normal so that shouldn't be a problem for development in those regions but with the -AMO look it might be hard to get much going in the MDR

we may not know anything really concrete until May so stay tuned

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Not trying to seem rude, but just pointing out during inactive season, it is commonly brought up from my observations that posters tend to fall under the belief that the home grown season will be actvie, yet never materializes.

With an active EPAC on the cards, it's hard to imagine a busy home grown season. EPAc and the +PDO would cause too much shear.

I'd look for the SE coast to once again be a hotspot in the ATL, based on continuity from past several seasons.

well said. home grown activity depends on the flow in the west atlantic. if, as has been the case the last many years, there is a ripping wnw flow in the west atlantic then home grown activity will be minimal.

[Andrew92]

I've been thinking 1984 for a long time as an analog for this year. Not much activity in the tropical latitudes, but quite a bit in the subtropics. The difference is I could see some activity in the Gulf of Mexico, whereas there was very little that year.

-Andrew92

[gatorcane]

It's only March with the peak of the Atlantic season still over 6 months away. A lot can change between then and now, and as always, all it takes is one.

[Yellow Evan]

I've been thinking 1984 for a long time as an analog for this year. Not much activity in the tropical latitudes, but quite a bit in the subtropics. The difference is I could see some activity in the Gulf of Mexico, whereas there was very little that year.

-Andrew92

What would favor GOM activity in your eyes?

[Ptarmigan]

Figured you guys would of seen the long-range early season gulf storm on the GFS. Quite a consistent feature, been showing up 7 runs in a row now.

I think the East Atlantic is closed down for the season, most of the activity should be centered over the Gulf Stream like last year.

and maybe the Caribbean as it seems there is some with the normal ups and downs most of the time has had above normal instability in that region this year so far but is in a below normal instability pattern right now as there have been fronts passing through the Caribbean recently.

so based on the way the instability we may have a close to home type season focused on the Caribbean, Gulf, and east coast but with the ENSO not really making up its mind it could go either way come hurricane season in the Caribbean with either lesser Caribbean activity due to a traditional El Nino or what I'm going with a Possible El Nino Madoki or +Neutral which would open up the Caribbean so lets see where this goes

as for SSTs it seems as though the Subtropics, GOM and the Caribbean are above normal so that shouldn't be a problem for development in those regions but with the -AMO look it might be hard to get much going in the MDR

we may not know anything really concrete until May so stay tuned

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Not trying to seem rude, but just pointing out during inactive season, it is commonly brought up from my observations that posters tend to fall under the belief that the home grown season will be actvie, yet never materializes.

With an active EPAC on the cards, it's hard to imagine a busy home grown season. EPAc and the +PDO would cause too much shear.

I'd look for the SE coast to once again be a hotspot in the ATL, based on continuity from past several seasons.

I have seen some very active season with a warm PDO (+PDO). 1933, 1995, and 2005 had warm PDO.

[Yellow Evan]

and maybe the Caribbean as it seems there is some with the normal ups and downs most of the time has had above normal instability in that region this year so far but is in a below normal instability pattern right now as there have been fronts passing through the Caribbean recently.

so based on the way the instability we may have a close to home type season focused on the Caribbean, Gulf, and east coast but with the ENSO not really making up its mind it could go either way come hurricane season in the Caribbean with either lesser Caribbean activity due to a traditional El Nino or what I'm going with a Possible El Nino Madoki or +Neutral which would open up the Caribbean so lets see where this goes

as for SSTs it seems as though the Subtropics, GOM and the Caribbean are above normal so that shouldn't be a problem for development in those regions but with the -AMO look it might be hard to get much going in the MDR

we may not know anything really concrete until May so stay tuned

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Not trying to seem rude, but just pointing out during inactive season, it is commonly brought up from my observations that posters tend to fall under the belief that the home grown season will be actvie, yet never materializes.

With an active EPAC on the cards, it's hard to imagine a busy home grown season. EPAc and the +PDO would cause too much shear.

I'd look for the SE coast to once again be a hotspot in the ATL, based on continuity from past several seasons.

I have seen some very active season with a warm PDO (+PDO). 1933, 1995, and 2005 had warm PDO.

Yea, but not as warm as they are currently. In the long run +PDO IMO is good for the ATL as it could help increase instability as the heat is removed from the tropics, but EPAC storms and a combination of warm Nino 1+2/+PDO are not good for homegrowns since the EPAC would be warmer than the ALT, just attracting MJO and stealing all the divergence and upward motion, as upward motion tends to favor warm SST's.

[Andrew92]

I've been thinking 1984 for a long time as an analog for this year. Not much activity in the tropical latitudes, but quite a bit in the subtropics. The difference is I could see some activity in the Gulf of Mexico, whereas there was very little that year.

-Andrew92

What would favor GOM activity in your eyes?

The most simple thing is that the GOM did not have much activity last year. It is extremely unusual to go two straight years with no more than one weak tropical storm each year, like Dolly. Then there is the fact that some classic storms have developed from frontal-type system in that region. Waters should be pretty warm, one piece needed for intensification. Even if there are some El Nino-type conditions, the Gulf is usually less affected by shear, and in some cases becomes quite favorable for development near the peak. Good examples of this are 1977 and though not actually El Nino, 1992. Maybe those will also be good analogs. But I sense a high-quantity, low-quality season, mostly because we are still probably in the active period going back to 1995. Those two years were low-quantity.

-Andrew92