2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[cycloneye]

This topic for the 2015 North Atlantic indicators is important to have this early to see how things are evolving in the important factor of the steering as we will see based on that which areas in the basin may have visits of tropical systems. Also,it will be important to see how the pressures will be and how the waters are in terms of being more warm or not. And last but also important is how things are evolving in the Vertical Instability factor.Let's see how things evolve in the next few months. Post away your takes folks.

Note=This thread is not to post forecast numbers but to discuss about how things are going in the factors this thread is enlisting. There will be our annual poll for that starting on April 1rst. As a matter of fact,this thread will help you a bit to decide about the numbers game with all the information that will be posted.







http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html


http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

















http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html



http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue?f[0]=im_field_chart_type_2%3A607&amp%3Bf[1]=im_field_chart_type%3A482



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /nao.shtml



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... od=splitEW

[TheStormExpert]

IMO the lack of vertical instability will remain a huge problem especially in the Tropical Atlantic at least until we can actually get a decent El Niño event to come and go. Until that happens do not expect a spike to normal/above normal vertical instability.

[cycloneye]

Well,so far in the first 3 days of 2015 at least the Vertical Instability in the Tropical Atlantic is near normal but of course it will change constantly so let's watch that. Also the sst anomalies in the Eastern Atlantic are but again let's see how it goes as time goes by.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Trends in the IOD, AMO, and ENSO are the three main factors I'm looking out for this upcoming season. The IOD is currently cool Neutral, with guidance indicating a continuation of Neutral conditions or a dip into negative territory over the summer months. Remember that a negative IOD favors more robust tropical waves, increasing the odds for development later down the road. The AMO remains only marginally positive, not uncharacteristic of the past few years. If the AMO continues to be this weak, we should see average or slightly below-average SSTs across the tropical Atlantic (not a favorable configuration to focus upward motion in the basin). And then there's ENSO...and what a hassle it has been the past few years. Waters remain anomalously warm across the Pacific, and as long as that continues to be the case, we should see above-average shear across the West Atlantic. The degree of shear will be determined by the placement and intensity of the warmest waters relative to average.

[cycloneye]

Trends in the IOD, AMO, and ENSO are the three main factors I'm looking out for this upcoming season. The IOD is currently cool Neutral, with guidance indicating a continuation of Neutral conditions or a dip into negative territory over the summer months. Remember that a negative IOD favors more robust tropical waves, increasing the odds for development later down the road. The AMO remains only marginally positive, not uncharacteristic of the past few years. If the AMO continues to be this weak, we should see average or slightly below-average SSTs across the tropical Atlantic (not a favorable configuration to focus upward motion in the basin). And then there's ENSO...and what a hassle it has been the past few years. Waters remain anomalously warm across the Pacific, and as long as that continues to be the case, we should see above-average shear across the West Atlantic. The degree of shear will be determined by the placement and intensity of the warmest waters relative to average.

Is a big if at this time that El Nino is up soon so any warm episode would be a Modoki one if Nino 1+2 doesn't go above +0.5C. (Well in Neutral on January 5) That would be good for North Atlantic Hurricane Season to be more active but other factors may cancel that like the Thermoline Circulation,,cooler sst's,Vertical Instability etc.

[gatorcane]

One thing we would want to see for an active Atlantic season that could cause potential impacts for the U.S. and Caribbean are warmer SST anomalies in the tropics rather than subtropics but that is not what we are seeing right now as the warmest anomalies are north of 30N across the subtropical Atlantic. Still a lot of time for things to change though:

[CrazyC83]

It seems there are mixed signals, but you can't really predict much from January.

Having three lower-activity seasons in a row would be quite rare though...

[TheStormExpert]

By looking at the Caribbean Vertical Instability chart and Sea Level Pressure forecast the Caribbean COULD be the hotspot this year if trends continue and of course waters warm to levels similar to last season.

Though things could and will change and this may not even be the case at all come June.

[cycloneye]

By looking at the Caribbean Vertical Instability chart and Sea Level Pressure forecast the Caribbean COULD be the hotspot this year if trends continue and of course waters warm to levels similar to last season.

Though things could and will change and this may not even be the case at all come June.

You may be right about Caribbean being a hot spot but many things will happen from now going thru the next few months to be sure. Let's keep checking those graphics that update every day at first post.

[CrazyC83]

The closest recent analog I can come up with might be 2007, although 2002, 1998, 1988, 1985 and 1979 might also be reasonable analogs. For the most part Cape Verde was dead in those years, but they did produce stronger storms west of 60W (and especially west of 75W).

[cycloneye]

The January update of the MSLP by operational ECMWF is terrible so far for the North Atlantic with very high pressures as it goes thru May,June and July.The ECMWF ensembles are with near normal pressures for the same period.

Operational:



Ensembles



ECMWF MSLP forecast

[cycloneye]

The closest recent analog I can come up with might be 2007, although 2002, 1998, 1988, 1985 and 1979 might also be reasonable analogs. For the most part Cape Verde was dead in those years, but they did produce stronger storms west of 60W (and especially west of 75W).

Why you think 2007?

[TheStormExpert]

The January update of the MSLP by operational ECMWF is terrible so far for the North Atlantic with very high pressures as it goes thru May,June and July.The ECMWF ensembles are with near normal pressures for the same period.

Operational:

http://oi60.tinypic.com/2uqdpnc.jpg

Ensembles

http://oi59.tinypic.com/dvlie8.jpg

ECMWF MSLP forecast

Just looking at this wouldn't this mean that both the Atlantic and E. Pacific be below average in activity?

[Yellow Evan]

The January update of the MSLP by operational ECMWF is terrible so far for the North Atlantic with very high pressures as it goes thru May,June and July.The ECMWF ensembles are with near normal pressures for the same period.

Operational:

http://oi60.tinypic.com/2uqdpnc.jpg

Ensembles

http://oi59.tinypic.com/dvlie8.jpg

ECMWF MSLP forecast

Just looking at this wouldn't this mean that both the Atlantic and E. Pacific be below average in activity?

ATL? Yes EPAC? No. That's an El Nino like setup the Euro shows.

[cycloneye]

If the NAO remains positive as it is now it would not allow the sst's to warm a lot.But the position and strength of the Azores and Bermuda highs will be key on the steering.Let's continue to watch how the NAO behaves in the next 7-8 months.

[blp]

If the NAO remains positive as it is now it would not allow the sst's to warm a lot.But the position and strength of the Azores and Bermuda highs will be key on the steering.Let's continue to watch how the NAO behaves in the next 7-8 months.

Good point. I am interested in how the steering will evolve this year. After 5 years of dominant troughs helping to steer storms away from many land areas I would think that it will flip back soon. I would think that Bermuda would be happy to see that pattern change since they have been affected quite frequently lately.

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,dont say it loud but the Tropical Atlantic Vertical Instability is above normal for January 23rd. But is a very long road ahead.

[cycloneye]

As the first month of 2015 comes to an end we are looking at negative things gong on in terms of the next North Atlantic Hurricane Season.Vertical Instability is way down as of January 28 everywhere,the forecast for MSLP is not good and the sst's are not warming.Let's see what Febuary and the next few months have to see if things turn a little bit better.

[CrazyC83]

The closest recent analog I can come up with might be 2007, although 2002, 1998, 1988, 1985 and 1979 might also be reasonable analogs. For the most part Cape Verde was dead in those years, but they did produce stronger storms west of 60W (and especially west of 75W).

Why you think 2007?

Moderate activity in those years, heavy focus on the western part of the basin (i.e. Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico) and Cape Verde incredibly hostile. 2007 fit that pattern quite well.

[cycloneye]

I included to the title of thread and added the graphic of the Saharan air Layer factor as that is another indicator that we have to look at.As January ends there is a fair amount of sal in the Tropical Atlantic.