2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Andrew92]

One thing that must be pointed out though on the 1959 and 1983 comparisons for next year that are coming up, is that both years had a major hurricane hit Mexico very close to this date from the Eastern Pacific. In fact, the 1959 hurricane followed a path that is eerily similar to what Patricia has taken so far. Tico made it a fair amount further west before it sharply re-curved into Mexico though in 1983. Both also made landfall very close to where Patricia is likely to strike.

Officially, the 1959 was a Category 5, but with a pressure of 958 mb it would have had to be quite small if that is true. I suspect a Category 3 instead, like Tico. We'll see how strong Patricia is at landfall, but it probably won't weaken enough to be on the same level as these two (which were still plenty bad, I should say).

But if those years end up being possible analogs for 2016, could we have to watch for this kind of scenario again next year for Mexico, on a hopefully weaker but still dangerous scale?

-Andrew92

[Ntxw]

Not the Atlantic, but if you haven't you should take a look at Patricia in the EPAC. From TS to cat 5 in 24 hours with exceptional pinhole eye with raw modern ADT T#'s off the roof. History over there.

[Hurricaneman]

It looks as if the CFSv2 might be on to something looking at whats happening in the Atlantic SSTA wise but 1 difference I'm seeing that really worries me is that it seems the ENSO 1\2 area is cooling quite a bit and could extend some into the 3 region which the CFSv2 is showing the 1\2 region being warm but the Baja cooling off so this could end up being epic for 2016 based on my observations

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[Alyono]

Keep in mind folks 2004 and 2005 had a +PDO pattern. I don't think that'll mean much, rather the SST's temps of 1+2 could have more meaning as more equatorial warmth (relative to other Nino regions) means more EPAC convergence at the surface, which means more shear in the deep tropics.

Would this be why there was so (relatively) little activity in 2005 between Africa and the Caribbean?

No. 2005 AHS MDR was shut down to SAL. Nino 1+2 was quite cool during 2004-2005 (2004 was a classic Modoki El Nino)

What SAL in 2005? There was none. Yes, there was dry air. However, the waves were moving quite slowly. In a SAL case, there is also strong low level easterly winds, which forces the waves to move very quickly.

The lack of SAL was one reason we had so much development. The waves were able to move slow enough that they eventually found favorable conditions

[NDG]

Yeap, there was barely if any SAL that year, especially over the Caribbean.

[Ntxw]

Florida hasn't been hit by a hurricane in 10 years. That is just crazy (and fortunate). Make that prediction in 2005 and you would've been creamed and lectured to the ground about why that won't happen.

[Yellow Evan]

What SAL in 2005? There was none. Yes, there was dry air. However, the waves were moving quite slowly. In a SAL case, there is also strong low level easterly winds, which forces the waves to move very quickly.

The lack of SAL was one reason we had so much development. The waves were able to move slow enough that they eventually found favorable conditions

But how come the MDR wasn't exactly hyperactive in 2005 then?

[tolakram]

I think the easy answer is SAL is just not that important, especially if other conditions are favorable. Put up a nice orange graphic of SAL and it's easy to point and blame.

What is important is low level moisture, SSTs, low level winds, and shear. It is apparently rare to have poor conditions in the eastern MDR and near perfect conditions everywhere else. 2005, and this is just my conjecture, combined a very active wave train with those poor eastern MDR conditions while the rest of the basin was generally very favorable. Odds are that won't happen again for a very long time.

[Alyono]

What SAL in 2005? There was none. Yes, there was dry air. However, the waves were moving quite slowly. In a SAL case, there is also strong low level easterly winds, which forces the waves to move very quickly.

The lack of SAL was one reason we had so much development. The waves were able to move slow enough that they eventually found favorable conditions

But how come the MDR wasn't exactly hyperactive in 2005 then?

there was dry air, but it came from the north Atlantic. Also, the MDR WAS hyperactive. It's just that it was the western portion of the MDR. MDR does not stop at the Lesser Antilles. It extends through the western Caribbean according to some definitions. Even the eastern Caribbean produced several storms that year

[SapphireSea]

I believe there were two main factors that hindered the eastern MDR in 2005, one of which if I remember correctly was well documented. During the mean development months for the storms, there was a powerful Azores High causing a displacement of the ITCZ further unfavorably south for that period. This was also followed by the fact that persistent monsoon troughs hovered over Africa at the time which caused a bit of shear off the coast; and lower instability for that area due to offset subsidence. This led to much more favorable conditions down-wind where pressures were a bit lower and more moisture was abundant from a near record warm winter for some areas; especially the east coast and south; which enhanced mid and low level moisture out there. My take.