2015 ACE - ATL: 59.94 - EPAC: 287.667 - WPAC: 478.335

[Ntxw]

Numbers from Dr. Ryan Maue's site as of 7/20/2016. Activity is a little slow globally right now though some potential development in the EPAC and something off the US east coast of the frontal variety. Overall the Pacific is keeping global ACE near record pace. Atlantic is a little below normal now as the ACE climo starts to pick up.
______________________________

N. Hemisphere: 272.5875 [Normal: 105]

Western Pacific: 186.23 [Normal: 61]

North Atlantic: 4.5175 [Normal: 6]

Eastern Pacific: 78.0250 [Normal:30]

North Indian: 3.815 [Normal: 7]



http://policlimate.com/tropical/

For fun I dug up last year's update around this week

N. Hemisphere: 118.9050 [Normal: 108 - 110% of normal]

Western Pacific: 70.3875 [Normal: 63 - 111% of normal]

North Atlantic: 7.215 [Normal: 6 - 120% of normal]

Eastern Pacific: 36.895 [Normal: 31 - 119% of normal]

North Indian: 4.4075 [Normal: 7 - 62% of normal]

[Yellow Evan]

You sure the EPAC ACE is 78?

[Ntxw]

You sure the EPAC ACE is 78?

He included Halola. Minus would be 66-67 but for all intents and purpose is counted by him in CPAC+EPAC

[Yellow Evan]

You sure the EPAC ACE is 78?

He included Halola. Minus would be 66-67 but for all intents and purpose is counted by him in CPAC+EPAC

That explains it. Thanks.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

FIXED, WPAC reached 200 10 weeks ahead of climo, and last year early mid-October

N. Hemisphere: 281.7425 [Normal: 114 - 247% of normal]

Western Pacific: 203.29 [Normal: 66 - 308% of normal]

North Atlantic: 4.5175 [Normal: 6 - 75% of normal]

Eastern Pacific: 70.1200 [Normal: 34 - 206% of normal]

North Indian: 3.815 [Normal: 7 - 54% of normal]

[euro6208]

Maue now counting Halola's ACE for the WPAC so big decrease for the EPAC there...

WPAC continues to be well above average and is already near the yearly climo and it's only July!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WPAC so crazy rn, with only 13 storms ACE is nearing the yearly average climo of 294. Now at 210 expected to gain more this month with many typhoons and also Soudelor expected to ramp up the ACE and is wayyyy above average. Last time this happened was in 2004, not seen this in a decade. In contrast, in the 2013 season we reached this level about midday October 24th PHT.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

With Super Typhoon Soudelor undergoing RI, it's also racking up many ACE units. For Soudelor alone, it's now 10.89. For the WPAC, it's much higher now at 218.195 units.

For sure, the WPAC would be above 230 units at this point. In comparison the last major El Niño (2009) only had an ACE index of 29 at this date.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Soudelor now has 16.105 units total of 223.41 units for the entire WPAC basin

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Soudelor now pumping up WPAC ACE by 26.65 to 233.955** and this is crazy! Actually I think Soudelor will countribute up to 30-35 units and will push the WPAC to around 240-245 units, and is close to last year's yearly total (273). 233 units was achieved last year after Nuri dissipated and before Hagupit formed. If Hagupit hadn't formed, then we would be tying with yearly total ACE right now and to think it's only August 7th! Higher than even 2004 recently...

**Update: ERROR IN WeatherBell data, actually I recalculated Soudelor's ACE on excel and all advisory intensities (Maue may have missed some warnings) and the result was 27.795, and will eventually rise. WPAC ACE is already at 235.1 units.

[Ntxw]

Numbers from Dr. Ryan Maue's site as of 8/07/2016. Pacific Ocean leads all others to maintain well above normal ACE globally. El Nino's background state is having profound effects on this basin. The Atlantic so far in August remains quiet, shear is abundant in the Caribbean and will be breaking out across the tropical Atlantic in the coming days, so it may be some time before activity there picks up unless in the NW Atlantic.
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N. Hemisphere: 330.935 [Normal: 156]

Western Pacific: 237.37 [Normal: 87]

North Atlantic: 4.64 [Normal: 10]

Eastern Pacific: 84.30 [Normal:50]

North Indian: 4.625 [Normal: 7]



http://policlimate.com/tropical/

For comparison purposes ~around~ this period last year

ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY TOTALS, AS OF AUGUST 10, 2014 1:30 PM UTC

Northern Hemisphere: 225.8995 - 138% of normal, YTD
Normal Year to Date: 163

Western Pacific: 123.362 - 135% of normal, YTD
Normal Year to Date: 91

Eastern Pacific: 83.8675 - 161% of normal, YTD
Normal Year to Date: 52

North Atlantic: 14.4625 - 129% of normal, YTD
Normal Year to Date: 11

North Indian: 4.4075 - 62% of normal, YTD
Normal Year to Date: 7

Southern Hemisphere: 197.643 - 94% of normal, YTD
Normal Year to Date: 209

GLOBAL: 357.8575 - 106% of normal, YTD
Normal Year to Date: 335

And here is the nearest date I can pull up from 2013 thread

Updated numbers from Dr. Ryan Maue's site for this week 8/5:
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N. Hemisphere: 73.5250 [Normal: 146]

Western Pacific: 33.0825 [Normal: 82]

North Atlantic: 6.55 (was revised from last reading) [Normal: 9]

Eastern Pacific: 28.515 [Normal: 47]

North Indian: 5.3775 [Normal: 7]

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[xtyphooncyclonex]

ACE for Soudelor exceeding the 30-mark

[euro6208]

I won't be surprised if the WPAC ACE gets near 300 when all said is done with the development of 16W and 17W, long lived intense Cat 5's in the making...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I won't be surprised if the WPAC ACE gets near 300 when all said is done with the development of 16W and 17W, long lived intense Cat 5's in the making...

Current ACE is around 240, possibly each of the STY twins will produce 45-60 units, maybe summing up 100 for both storms. We'd be above average of the entire yearly climo, highest YTD ever for August. Also, this would possibly surpass 1997 and we'd get our fifth and sixth category 5's by next week. Crazy and overwhelmingly productive ACE and quality year for our basin.

[Ntxw]

Yeah the two big upcoming 'phoons will likely produce 70+ ACE at the minimum, the eastern one I think will rack up the most of the two.

In perspective if they do get 70-100 ACE thats about near normal of what an entire Atlantic season racks up an average year, crazy.

[Ntxw]

Numbers from Dr. Ryan Maue's site as of 8/15/2016. Goni and Atsani have formed as advertised and will likely become super typhoons racking up a huge chunk of global ACE, also pushing the WPAC closer to it's annual average a little over 300 units. EPAC is in a bit of a lull and Atlantic is not expecting any activity within the next 5 days to add ACE.
______________________________

N. Hemisphere: 352.3825 [Normal: 179]

Western Pacific: 244.125 [Normal: 99]

North Atlantic: 4.5175 [Normal: 14]

Eastern Pacific: 99.115 [Normal:57]

North Indian: 4.625 [Normal: 7]



http://policlimate.com/tropical/

[euro6208]

Nearing our yearly climo of 302 now at 261.47 with Goni and Atsani ravaging the area and it's only August...Normal YTD at this time is 104

Still a long way to go in this season...

[galaxy401]

Nearing our yearly climo of 302 now at 261.47 with Goni and Atsani ravaging the area and it's only August...Normal YTD at this time is 104

Still a long way to go in this season...

What is the record high for the WPAC ACE and do you think it will surpass it?

[Ntxw]

What is the record high for the WPAC ACE and do you think it will surpass it?

It's somewhere in the high 400s near 500 units held by 1992 and 1997. Very difficult to find WPAC ACE prior to recent years because few keep track of it.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2015 WPAC ACE to date is now 274.9 units, higher than any other year with the same date, surpassing 2002 by about 30-50 units. This is more than the ACE of almost every year's total ACE till December 31 for the past 7-8 years. This will be the first time since 2006 wherein ACE is at least slightly above average, and 2004 when it was above average/hyperactive

ATSANI = 16.8625
GONI = 15.3775


Compared to the past 2 years at close dates
2013 = 53.1375
2014 = 127.942