ECMWF warm bias.

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Kingarabian
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ECMWF warm bias.

#1 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Feb 18, 2015 9:39 pm

The ECMWF/Euro model in forecasting ENSO has been consistently warm biased since 2012. Why is that? We've yet to see an El-Nino, although we've seen warm-neutral dominate...

Shoudn't the developers and maintainers update it?


Sorry if this does not warrant a thread but I felt we need to discuss what's happening.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: ECMWF warm bias.

#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:The ECMWF/Euro model in forecasting ENSO has been consistently warm biased since 2012. Why is that? We've yet to see an El-Nino, although we've seen warm-neutral dominate...

Shoudn't the developers and maintainers update it?


Sorry if this does not warrant a thread but I felt we need to discuss what's happening.


It appears the Euro and other models don't have a good grip on the trade wind pattern, and seem to ignore the easterly wind bursts. what happens is every few months, a new downwelling sub-surface pool develops, and the ECMWF goes nuts, thinking a big El Ninio would form. And if it wasn't for the lack of WWB's, IMO, we'd have dealt with a major El Nino by now.
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Re: ECMWF warm bias.

#3 Postby SFLcane » Fri Feb 20, 2015 11:58 pm

Regardless sst profile screams crapola storms N of 30n middle of nowhere.
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