How strong the 2015 El Nino will be at peak?

[cycloneye]

For a second year in a row I am making this poll question to sample the members about the most important topic weatherwise that will make the most headlines and discussion in the weather community. Let's see what the members think the present El Nino will be at it's peak in 2015. Poll will close on April 30 at 11:54 AM EDT.

Voted for what I see now is for El Nino to peak this year between +1.0C and +1.3C.

[LarryWx]

Luis,
Thanks for running this poll. What measure are you using to determine El Nino's max? Are you using NOAA weeklies, the official ONI (trimonthlies), or something else? The ONI peaked at +0.7 this past El Niño though that ran somewhat into 2015 (Nov-Jan). This raises another question. When you say 2015, do you really mean you're looking for the peak that goes through the winter of 2015-6 (keeping in mind that some El Nino's don't peak til Jan/Feb.)?

ONI showing +0.7 C peak:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

[cycloneye]

Luis,
Thanks for running this poll. What measure are you using to determine El Nino's max? Are you using NOAA weeklies, the official ONI (trimonthlies), or something else? The ONI peaked at +0.7 this past El Niño though that ran somewhat into 2015 (Nov-Jan). This raises another question. When you say 2015, do you really mean you're looking for the peak that goes through the winter of 2015-6 (keeping in mind that some El Nino's don't peak til Jan/Feb.)?

ONI showing +0.7 C peak:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

Yes.The El Nino that is right now that I expect to peak this year.

[LarryWx]

Luis,
Thanks for running this poll. What measure are you using to determine El Nino's max? Are you using NOAA weeklies, the official ONI (trimonthlies), or something else? The ONI peaked at +0.7 this past El Niño though that ran somewhat into 2015 (Nov-Jan). This raises another question. When you say 2015, do you really mean you're looking for the peak that goes through the winter of 2015-6 (keeping in mind that some El Nino's don't peak til Jan/Feb.)?

ONI showing +0.7 C peak:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

Yes.The El Nino that is right now that I expect to peak this year.

Luis,
Thanks. Are you using the ONI to determine the peak, which peaked at +0.7 in NDJ in this last El Nino?

ONI: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

Or are you using weeklies, which peaked at +1.0 in this last Nov? The weeklies have peaked higher than the three month based ONI for all El Nino's since the weeklies started, which makes sense since the weeklies are more volatile:

Weeklies: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[cycloneye]

Luis,
Thanks for running this poll. What measure are you using to determine El Nino's max? Are you using NOAA weeklies, the official ONI (trimonthlies), or something else? The ONI peaked at +0.7 this past El Niño though that ran somewhat into 2015 (Nov-Jan). This raises another question. When you say 2015, do you really mean you're looking for the peak that goes through the winter of 2015-6 (keeping in mind that some El Nino's don't peak til Jan/Feb.)?

ONI showing +0.7 C peak:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

Yes.The El Nino that is right now that I expect to peak this year.

Luis,
Thanks. Are you using the ONI to determine the peak, which peaked at +0.7 in NDJ in this last El Nino?

ONI: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

Or are you using weeklies, which peaked at +1.0 in this last Nov? The weeklies have peaked higher than the three month based ONI for all El Nino's since the weeklies started, which makes sense since the weeklies are more volatile:

Weeklies: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

Using the ONI.

[CaliforniaResident]

I think it will approach 4.5 by late September/early October!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I think it will approach 4.5 by late September/early October!

That is impossible. We are talking about ONI. It is almost zero percent possible that it would be like that. There would be no Kelvin Waves that could cause that kind of warming. And if it is a joke, it ain't funny.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Whoever said '"don't rise above +0.5C" and "between +0.6C and +0.9C" now lose as the current anomalies indicate +0.93C (rounded to +0.9C) over the Niño 3.4 region, and may even rise to Moderate Niño next Monday.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

BTW, cycloneye, how do I change my vote from "Between +1.4C and +1.6C" to "Between +2.0C and +2.2C"?

[cycloneye]

BTW, cycloneye, how do I change my vote from "Between +1.4C and +1.6C" to "Between +2.0C and +2.2C"?

You can change your vote as I changed the settings.

[LarryWx]

Whoever said '"don't rise above +0.5C" and "between +0.6C and +0.9C" now lose as the current anomalies indicate +0.93C (rounded to +0.9C) over the Niño 3.4 region, and may even rise to Moderate Niño next Monday.

Xtyphoon,
Technically, that is not yet true (although the chances are going down a good bit). The reason it isn't technically true is that Luis said he's going by the ONI, which is the three month average rather than weekly or daily.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

But it is highly unlikely. As the higher weekly anomalies prevail we also lose the lower anomalies earlier this year. Maybe a moderate by AMJ

[LarryWx]

But it is highly unlikely. As the higher weekly anomalies prevail we also lose the lower anomalies earlier this year. Maybe a moderate by AMJ

I agree that it is highly unlikely and with the idea of moderate being possible as early as AMJ. We'll see.

[tolakram]

I'm sticking with 1.0 to 1.3, but it may be close.

[wxman57]

The poll leaves out a critical piece of info - what period of time are we predicting? A one-day temperature anomaly? A 3-month average? Those two can be quite different. For a short term (few days to a week) I would say +1.3 to +1.6.

[LarryWx]

The poll leaves out a critical piece of info - what period of time are we predicting? A one-day temperature anomaly? A 3-month average? Those two can be quite different. For a short term (few days to a week) I would say +1.3 to +1.6.

57,
Luis said that it would go by the warmest trimonthly (ONI) as opposed to daily or weekly and which could conceivably involve part of 2016 if the trimonthly peaks later than OND.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

99% sure that ONI for FMA will be +0.7C

[Dean_175]

I think it will approach 4.5 by late September/early October!

That's impossible. Even if the zonal temperature gradient across the Pacific completely collapsed- the ONI would not reach 4.5C.

[cycloneye]

The poll has the option (Greater than +3.1C) so anyone is free to vote on that option if they choose to. I also think +4.5C is real high but you never know what mother nature has instored.

[Yellow Evan]

The poll has the option (Greater than +3.1C) so anyone is free to vote on that option if they choose to. I also think +4.5C is real high but you never know what mother nature has instored.

IIRC the 1997-98 had +4.6C anomalies for a week, but in a different region (1+2), which is much smaller.