How strong the 2015 El Nino will be at peak?

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How strong the present El Nino of 2015 will be at peak?

Poll ended at Thu Apr 30, 2015 10:54 am

Don't rise above +0.5C.
1
3%
Between +0.6C and +0.9C.
3
10%
Between +1.0C and +1.3C.
6
20%
Between +1.4C and +1.6C.
6
20%
Between +1.7C and +1.9C.
5
17%
Between +2.0C and +2.2C.
6
20%
Between +2.3C and +2.5C.
1
3%
Between +2.6C and +2.8C.
0
No votes
Between +2.9C and +3.0c.
0
No votes
Greater than +3.1C.
2
7%
 
Total votes: 30

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Dean_175
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#21 Postby Dean_175 » Tue Apr 28, 2015 5:50 pm

For now, I am going to say that 1.4-1.7C will be the warmest monthly ONI at peak. If we get strong WWB in May and the nino regions start rapidly warming again, then I think a very strong event may be possible.

I think we will at least get a high end moderate because

1)the weekly nino 3.4 is already at 1.0C, and provided not much cooling occurs in the short term , we are already looking at a possible moderate ONI in the next few months.

2) Subsurface temperatures are very warm and assuming we continue to see weakened easterlies, we should see some continued gradual surface warming.



Some models are showing a WWB in May, which would help reinforce the warm subsurface temps and allow for more substantial surface warming depending on how strong it is.
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#22 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 28, 2015 10:10 pm

I voted 1.7/1.9C. All the points above I echo :uarrow: . Higher starting point helps for sure.
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CaliforniaResident
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#23 Postby CaliforniaResident » Sat May 02, 2015 10:53 am

Look at this latest forecast!
Literally off the charts!

http://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaemb ... iginal.gif
Last edited by CaliforniaResident on Sat May 02, 2015 10:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 02, 2015 10:56 am

CaliforniaResident wrote:http://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/2005/1061/original.gif


I don't think that is bias corrected.
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Re: How strong the 2015 El Nino will be at peak?

#25 Postby OURAGAN » Sat May 02, 2015 3:04 pm

Wind shear are becoming week between 40 and 80 west, North of 10N for the first Time of the year, it's unusual.
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Re:

#26 Postby Dean_175 » Sat May 02, 2015 3:32 pm

CaliforniaResident wrote:Look at this latest forecast!
Literally off the charts!

http://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaemb ... iginal.gif


CFS and ECMWF seem to be over-predicting the strength of the el nino. Other models are not showing this. In fact, they are showing moderate.

Image
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Re: Re:

#27 Postby CaliforniaResident » Sun May 03, 2015 1:08 pm

Dean_175 wrote:
CaliforniaResident wrote:Look at this latest forecast!
Literally off the charts!

http://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaemb ... iginal.gif


CFS and ECMWF seem to be over-predicting the strength of the el nino. Other models are not showing this. In fact, they are showing moderate.

Image


We are overdue for a super Nino and given that it failed last year, I'd say it increases the chances of coming into force this year. Since the ocean is already in a weak to moderate El Nino state, very high PDO, and produced stronger Kelvin waves than last spring, I'd say we could have a repeat of 1997 except maybe a tad stronger.
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Re: Re:

#28 Postby Dean_175 » Sun May 03, 2015 2:28 pm

CaliforniaResident wrote:
We are overdue for a super Nino and given that it failed last year, I'd say it increases the chances of coming into force this year. Since the ocean is already in a weak to moderate El Nino state, very high PDO, and produced stronger Kelvin waves than last spring, I'd say we could have a repeat of 1997 except maybe a tad stronger.



Well I'm not saying it isn't among the possibilities. But being overdue for a very strong el nino does not increase the chances of one occurring. Its kinda like if you were to flip a coin and got heads 5 times in a row- that doesn't increase the chances of getting tails the next time you flip it. ONI >2.0 has only been observed during three el nino events of the 20th century: 1972, 1982, and 1997. May will be an important month in seeing how intense this el nino will get.
If a good WWB occurs in May and nino3.4 reaches 1.5C before the middle of June , then an ONI of over 2.0 may be possible at peak.
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Re: Re:

#29 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 03, 2015 4:05 pm

Dean_175 wrote:Well I'm not saying it isn't among the possibilities. But being overdue for a very strong el nino does not increase the chances of one occurring. Its kinda like if you were to flip a coin and got heads 5 times in a row- that doesn't increase the chances of getting tails the next time you flip it. ONI >2.0 has only been observed during three el nino events of the 20th century: 1972, 1982, and 1997. May will be an important month in seeing how intense this el nino will get.
If a good WWB occurs in May and nino3.4 reaches 1.5C before the middle of June , then an ONI of over 2.0 may be possible at peak.


Unfortunately reliable ENSO data doesn't go back that far. We can use ONI but 1972 El Nino really kick started the research and only after 1982 did buoys and satellite become a readily resource. Maybe 1965 and 1957 may be outlier possibilities since 1950. Given the record in the reasonably short amount of time it seems we should be expecting a strong/and or >2C Nino once per decade. 2000s have buckled this trend, however.
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Ntxw
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Re: How strong the 2015 El Nino will be at peak?

#30 Postby Ntxw » Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:01 am

The 2 Folks who voted greater than 3.1 are still in running, everyone else is no bueno.

Though Luis did say ONI so trimonthly, for this 14 votes remains but next month will eliminate a few more. But in terms of absolute weekly peaks only those two remains.
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