2015 West Pacific typhoon season Storm2k numbers poll

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xtyphooncyclonex
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2015 West Pacific typhoon season Storm2k numbers poll

#1 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 26, 2015 9:53 pm

Alright, so if both ATL and EPAC polls are active, let's make one for the WPAC, the most active basin in the world. This will be done in the same manner with the ATL season poll, predict both preliminary and final, numbers, and ACE (optional)

Difference:

Ex. 26/16/5

The last number would refer to super typhoon, not major typhoon unlike the ATL and EPAC

NOTE: To avoid confusion, and to comply with the other polls, we will use JTWC 1-min data

1-You can post your numbers whenever you want between April 27th at 11:00 PM EDT (11:00 PM PHT) and June 15th at Midnight EDT when the poll closes.Also members can add a brief commentary if you want to do so about why you have the numbers you posted in the poll.

2-You can post a set of numbers and not change them anymore.In that case I will consider your numbers as final.

3-If you have preliminary numbers and later you are going to post final ones, those will be posted with the word Final. If by June 15th at Midnight EDT when the poll closes,there are still members that have preliminary numbers,I will consider them as final ones.

4-Unnamed Storms that may form will count as part of the numbers.

6-If a system is upgraded or downgraded from a Tropical Storm/Severe tropical storm to a Typhoon in Post-Season Report,it will count for the final tally to see which members came close or nailed the numbers.

7-(Optional) The ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) numbers for the 2015 Pacific Typhoon Season will not count for the poll but if any member wants to post what they think about how the ACE will be you can do so.

8-Anyone can participate,from the pro mets,those who like Tropical Weather and like to track tropical systems,those who dont know a lot about tropical weather,and the newbies too are welcomed.I know that the numbers are not the most important thing in a season.The most important thing are where the storms will go,so it doesn't matter how many named storms form,as it only takes one system to do all the damage to an area.However,it's always very interesting to make a poll like this to see what the members think about the numbers game and how active or not the season will turn out.Let's see at the end of the season,how many members get close or tie what the 2015 season will offer.

9-This is the first year of this poll, and let's get this active!

10-The list of participants in the poll will only appear on the first post of the thread so you dont have to go thru the pages.Good luck to all.


2015 participants:

1-xtyphooncyclonex=31/21/10 (Prelim) ACE: 530
2-euro6208=29/16/9 (Prelim) ACE: 500
3-cycloneye=30/17/12 ACE: 470
4-CrazyC83=42/25/8
5-Hybridstorm_November2001=33/22/14
6-galaxy401=34/20/13
7-HurricaneEdouard=29/16/11
8-404UserNotFound=38/23/10
9-Ntxw=29/19/10 ACE: 475
10-TheStormExpert=30/18/13 (Final) ACE: 480
11-Cyclenall=36/19/11 ACE: 498
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Tue Jun 02, 2015 11:20 pm, edited 9 times in total.
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#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Apr 26, 2015 9:55 pm

Big problem. Is this from RMSC or JTWC data?
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#3 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 26, 2015 9:58 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Big problem. Is this from RMSC or JTWC data?

To comply with others, we will use JTWC data to avoid confusion
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Re: 2015 West Pacific typhoon season Storm2k numbers poll

#4 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:48 am

Preliminary

WPAC is currently at 5/3/2 as we enter May...

My season total is

29 TS

16 Typhoons

12 Major Typhoons

or about

9 Super typhoons (130 knots)

ACE so far is 48.58, i expect around 500 total...

The WPAC will be extraordinary this year maybe rivalring 1997's record 10 category 5, 3 of them peaking at 160 knots...
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Re: 2015 West Pacific typhoon season Storm2k numbers poll

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 29, 2015 4:46 pm

30/17/12 (Final) ACE: 470
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#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Apr 30, 2015 4:13 pm

42/25/8 (including storms that have already happened)
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#7 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Apr 30, 2015 6:49 pm

Thanks for the numbers!
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Re: 2015 West Pacific typhoon season Storm2k numbers poll

#8 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri May 01, 2015 6:59 pm

33/22/14
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#9 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat May 02, 2015 12:24 am

Thanks!
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Re: 2015 West Pacific typhoon season Storm2k numbers poll

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sun May 24, 2015 5:01 am

Only 5? :lol:

We can do better than that...
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#11 Postby galaxy401 » Sun May 24, 2015 2:04 pm

Might as well give it a shot.

34/20/13
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Re: 2015 West Pacific typhoon season Storm2k numbers poll

#12 Postby HurricaneEdouard » Sun May 24, 2015 6:03 pm

1997 is an eerily good analogue year, I think.

So I'll go for 29/16/11
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Re: 2015 West Pacific typhoon season Storm2k numbers poll

#13 Postby 404UserNotFound » Sun May 24, 2015 7:08 pm

38/23/10

(But there isn't a 38th month, or even a 23rd!)
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#14 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 24, 2015 7:22 pm

29/19/10 ACE 475
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#15 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun May 24, 2015 9:38 pm

Thanks guys!
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#16 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun May 31, 2015 10:57 pm

Never realized how active the West Pacific usually is, does it always produce these high numbers or is it due to the El Niño? Don't really follow this basin so sorry about my lack of knowledge on it.

Anyways, here are my numbers.

30/18/13 (Final)
ACE: 480
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Re:

#17 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Jun 01, 2015 2:57 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Never realized how active the West Pacific usually is, does it always produce these high numbers or is it due to the El Niño? Don't really follow this basin so sorry about my lack of knowledge on it.

Anyways, here are my numbers.

30/18/13 (Final)
ACE: 480

THANK YOU! Yes it looks like we will see a crazy season ahead, given that we had 3 category 5 STY's and highest YTD ACE
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#18 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:00 am

Hurry before the poll closes by June 15th! We need 20 members at least!
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Official Prediction

#19 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Jun 02, 2015 4:35 pm

My 2015 North Western Pacific Typhoon Season Prediction is as follows:

36/19/11 (Final)

ACE: 498

These are some point form notes on my thoughts for this season:

- Wowsers
- Insane

Note: None of this is based on scientific data or factual evidence. These are general thoughts that I have on what I think will happen.
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Re: Official Prediction

#20 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jun 02, 2015 11:19 pm

Cyclenall wrote:My 2015 North Western Pacific Typhoon Season Prediction is as follows:

36/19/11 (Final)

ACE: 498

These are some point form notes on my thoughts for this season:

- Wowsers
- Insane

Note: None of this is based on scientific data or factual evidence. These are general thoughts that I have on what I think will happen.

Thanks!
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