Surface Trough East of Florida (Is Invest 90L)

[floridasun78]

Zoomed satellite loop appears to show that the low has formed or is in the process of forming in the general vicinity of Grand Bahama/Abaco. There is a very faint turn in the low clouds directly south of Abaco with clouds coming out of the W-WNW to the west.

miami weather man say yes we starting look forming by Grand Bahama

[SeGaBob]

The chances of a landfall around here seem to be decreasing unless there's models I haven't seen.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[M_0331]

[quote="SeGaBob"]The chances of a landfall around here seem to be decreasing unless there's models I haven't seen.


I wish I had the advanced applied math skills to make such a statement.

[TheStormExpert]

The chances of a landfall around here seem to be decreasing unless there's models I haven't seen.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

How are decreasing? Nothing has developed yet, if anything does come out of this of course that it still yet to be seen. It's too soon to know anything just yet.

[tropicwatch]

Shouldn't this get an invest number pretty soon?

[SeGaBob]

I said "seem to be." I didn't say they definitely were... I'm not wishing for it to landfall really except maybe clouds to lower temps a bit. I put the disclaimer in because it was my opinion and not "advanced applied math skills".

[tolakram]

If you find yourself posting a comment about someone instead of about the weather think twice please. In other words, stop the sniping. Thanks.

[Hammy]

Shouldn't this get an invest number pretty soon?

I'm honestly quite surprised it wasn't tagged already earlier in the day. It looks like it's starting to spin up now pretty decently.

[Dean_175]

I know its a bit late for me to post this about the 12Z run but:

I can't post any pics- but the upper level trough is currently over the gulf of Mexico(12Z). The 12Z GFS and the 12Z NAM run show it becoming more negatively tilted as it moves over Florida and into the Atlantic tomorrow and Thursday- which will provide favorable upper level divergence above where the low near the surface is forming. The forecast conditions at the upper level (height contour,etc) seem to be consistent with the predicted pattern of precipitation and the movement of convection towards the center in a manner typical of subtropical cyclogenesis.

The GFS and NAM (12Z) are both showing precipitation and isobar patterns on Thursday and Friday that may be consistent with the formation of a subtropical system. however they are also showing some possible weak frontal characteristics. NAM is showing some front-like surface temp advection pattern next few days,though no frontal characteristics at 850mb by Thursday.

[hurricanekid416]

Reminds me a little bit of beryl from 2012

[Dean_175]

Reminds me a little bit of beryl from 2012

Yeah, it does- but I don't expect this system to ever become fully tropical. Still pretty early to tell for sure though.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Huh? Is it June already?

Thought I had a few more weeks to say "howdy" to everyone for the upcoming season, but let 'er roll.

Here in Cape Canaveral, we welcome the rain bands and all breezes from this baby storm. We had record breaking heat in April, and are not quite ready to close up for July and Aug temps.

For the upcoming months, I can contribute very little (except obs) so I will stay on the bleachers as usual. To the experts here, thanks in advance for all the great future updates.

Carry on ...

[wxman57]

Typical pre-season semi-tropical weak storm. I think chances It'll become "Ana" are in the 90% range, maybe higher. No question that a low center will develop. The only question is whether or not the NHC will name it. It will be close to the coast, so they probably will.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'd expect this to be tagged as an invest overnight, I think with this system's model support it's worthy of a tag. However, I don't think the system is well organized enough at the moment to keep tomorrow's recon flights. Maybe one of them, but I can't see both flights being active at the moment. Right now there's just no low to fix.

[TheStormExpert]

One thing is for sure, there is definitely a broad easy to see spin off the East Central/Southeast Coast of Florida and just west of Grand Bahama Island.

[tolakram]

I missed the fact the operational Euro shows it a little stronger on the 12Z run.



GFS similar at 72 hours as well.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 0z GFS is coming in and looks to be suffering from convective feedback. It develops two areas of low pressure, one situated east of Florida like originally expected, but also a second area of low pressure farther northeast in conjunction with the ongoing convection in that area. I probably wouldn't take this run as serious as previous ones.

[cycloneye]

Go to the Invest 90L main thread to continue the discussions about this area.