My 2015 Hurricane Season (with landfall) Outlook

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Enjoy, and tell me what you think -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/2015_05_08_archive.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[LarryWx]

Are your color coded risks based on comparison to climo for each region or do they directly compare to each other? For example, you have most of the GOM at low to moderate risk. However, climo has that area at the highest for the US. So, is the western Gulf low compared to climo only or is it literally low, period?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Are your color coded risks based on comparison to climo for each region or do they directly compare to each other? For example, you have most of the GOM at low to moderate risk. However, climo has that area at the highest for the US. So, is the western Gulf low compared to climo only or is it literally low, period?

Literally low, as I see no reason the overall pattern from last three years will change significantly. If anything it will be very similar for TC formation/penetration chances in the GOM & Caribbean Region as it was last year, perhaps even lower (please see the EURO seasonal pressure tendency prediction for further illustration of the negative factors).

[ninel conde]

Well done!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks pretty reasonable to me. Only thing is I would tend to lower the threats for Cuba and Florida, east and west coasts. With the patterns you show most systems that form will head north just like Ana did. Looks like pattern is setting up to be a SC/NC border on northward threat by anything that manages to develop.

[Hurricaneman]

Seems to follow what I'm thinking but the Eastern GOM and Florida may have something to contend with also

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Seems to follow what I'm thinking but the Eastern GOM and Florida may have something to contend with also

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Agreed, considering the similar pattern the past three seasons, one can't rule out a possible NW Caribbean development, or even two. However any such systems would most likely either move N-NE or be sheared apart, thus the moderate to high Florida and NE GOM risk in my forecast.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[emeraldislenc]

Great job. Looks reasonable to me.

[wxman57]

There's a good correlation between El Nino seasons and a below-normal hurricane risk to the East U.S. Coast. I'd go below-normal for a hurricane risk from the Carolinas through Maine. Below normal almost all areas, in fact, particularly in the Caribbean. The only area that might be remotely close to normal may be the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

I'd shift that trof eastward to along and off the East U.S. Coast and have the Bermuda High farther east, allowing for most, if not all, storms to recurve east of the U.S.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

There's a good correlation between El Nino seasons and a below-normal hurricane risk to the East U.S. Coast. I'd go below-normal for a hurricane risk from the Carolinas through Maine. Below normal almost all areas, in fact, particularly in the Caribbean. The only area that might be remotely close to normal may be the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

I'd shift that trof eastward to along and off the East U.S. Coast and have the Bermuda High farther east, allowing for most, if not all, storms to recurve east of the U.S.

Based upon the last three seasons, as already stated I see a very similar pattern taking hold this season, I respectfully disagree. Like the past three years the, if any, areas that suffer hits or close calls I think will be along the East Coast especially those places that naturally stick out; Cape Hatteras, Nova Scotia, Avalon of Newfoundland and Bermuda. I do however agree with you that many storms will likely recurve just off shore.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

There's a good correlation between El Nino seasons and a below-normal hurricane risk to the East U.S. Coast. I'd go below-normal for a hurricane risk from the Carolinas through Maine. Below normal almost all areas, in fact, particularly in the Caribbean. The only area that might be remotely close to normal may be the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

I'd shift that trof eastward to along and off the East U.S. Coast and have the Bermuda High farther east, allowing for most, if not all, storms to recurve east of the U.S.

Based upon the last three seasons, as already stated I see a very similar pattern taking hold this season, I respectfully disagree. Like the past three years the, if any, areas that suffer hits or close calls I think will be along the East Coast especially those places that naturally stick out; Cape Hatteras, Nova Scotia, Avalon of Newfoundland and Bermuda. I do however agree with you that many storms will likely recurve just off shore.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I disagree as well. Since the beginning of April the pattern has basically featured Ridging along the Eastern half of the U.S. and Troughiness along the Western half of the U.S.

As of lately plenty of locations in the Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast have been above normal and a few have nearly or already had a 90 degree day this year!

Of course the BIG question remains will this pattern stick and be still present in the heart of the season?

I would not be surprised to see it revert back to East Coast troughiness like it has every Summer for the past six years. But down here in Florida this East Coast ridging is very evident with afternoon thunderstorm activity being confined to the West Coast of FL as opposed to the East Coast like it was during the month of May during the years of 2012, 2013, and 2014.

[ninel conde]

There's a good correlation between El Nino seasons and a below-normal hurricane risk to the East U.S. Coast. I'd go below-normal for a hurricane risk from the Carolinas through Maine. Below normal almost all areas, in fact, particularly in the Caribbean. The only area that might be remotely close to normal may be the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

I'd shift that trof eastward to along and off the East U.S. Coast and have the Bermuda High farther east, allowing for most, if not all, storms to recurve east of the U.S.

Based upon the last three seasons, as already stated I see a very similar pattern taking hold this season, I respectfully disagree. Like the past three years the, if any, areas that suffer hits or close calls I think will be along the East Coast especially those places that naturally stick out; Cape Hatteras, Nova Scotia, Avalon of Newfoundland and Bermuda. I do however agree with you that many storms will likely recurve just off shore.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

while this pertains to summer, DT may be agreeing with you as he admits he may have been wrong.

Wxrisk.com
18 hrs ·

beginning to re think the Summer 2015 forecast... east of the Mississippi river may end up being hotter / drier than previously thought

hotter and drier would mean less of a trof and more of a ridge.

[wxman57]

There's a good correlation between El Nino seasons and a below-normal hurricane risk to the East U.S. Coast. I'd go below-normal for a hurricane risk from the Carolinas through Maine. Below normal almost all areas, in fact, particularly in the Caribbean. The only area that might be remotely close to normal may be the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

I'd shift that trof eastward to along and off the East U.S. Coast and have the Bermuda High farther east, allowing for most, if not all, storms to recurve east of the U.S.

Based upon the last three seasons, as already stated I see a very similar pattern taking hold this season, I respectfully disagree. Like the past three years the, if any, areas that suffer hits or close calls I think will be along the East Coast especially those places that naturally stick out; Cape Hatteras, Nova Scotia, Avalon of Newfoundland and Bermuda. I do however agree with you that many storms will likely recurve just off shore.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

You can disagree about the El Nino correlation with East U.S. Coast lack of impacts, but I wasn't simply stating my opinion - it's a fact. There is a significant correlation. Phil Klotzbach & I were talking about that and about the lack of correlation between El Nino and Gulf of Mexico hurricanes a few weeks ago. Of course, there are no guarantees in the tropics.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

There's a good correlation between El Nino seasons and a below-normal hurricane risk to the East U.S. Coast. I'd go below-normal for a hurricane risk from the Carolinas through Maine. Below normal almost all areas, in fact, particularly in the Caribbean. The only area that might be remotely close to normal may be the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

I'd shift that trof eastward to along and off the East U.S. Coast and have the Bermuda High farther east, allowing for most, if not all, storms to recurve east of the U.S.

Based upon the last three seasons, as already stated I see a very similar pattern taking hold this season, I respectfully disagree. Like the past three years the, if any, areas that suffer hits or close calls I think will be along the East Coast especially those places that naturally stick out; Cape Hatteras, Nova Scotia, Avalon of Newfoundland and Bermuda. I do however agree with you that many storms will likely recurve just off shore.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

You can disagree about the El Nino correlation with East U.S. Coast lack of impacts, but I wasn't simply stating my opinion - it's a fact. There is a significant correlation. Phil Klotzbach & I were talking about that and about the lack of correlation between El Nino and Gulf of Mexico hurricanes a few weeks ago. Of course, there are no guarantees in the tropics.

This is not always the case. The seasons I am using as, best, analogs are 1963, 1991 and 2014. During which hurricanes impacted the areas highlighted in purple (1963 Hurricane Ginny the second Snowicane, 1991 Hurricane Bob & Halloween storm, 2014 Hurricane/Tropical Storm Arthur). To a lesser degree I might add 1976 (Hurricane Belle) in there, though the analog isn't nearly as good.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

[Nimbus]

I was relieved to see the El Nino forecast in the ENSO updates thread.
Guess I can wait another year to resheath my Florida roof.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I was relieved to see the El Nino forecast in the ENSO updates thread.
Guess I can wait another year to resheath my Florida roof.

I wouldn't count on it. Considering the pattern forecast to be in place (see Euro seasonal forecast) anything that does form, say around the Bahamas, might get blocked long enough to impact Florida before recurving up the coast or out to sea.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ninel conde]

The pattern is different form the last few years. big rains in texas and the central plains tell me the semi-permanent west atlantic trof will likely be further west this summer. IF anything forms the east coast or texas could get hit.

[stormlover2013]

I agree Ninel, So far this season, the ridge of high pressure (which usually blocks hurricanes and steers them west) has been centered over Florida and the southeast United States. If this continues throughout the summer, this would steer any storm across the central and western Gulf of Mexico. I think this will be the predominant feature for the next 2-3 months so I would say the central and western Gulf coast will be at a higher than average risk of seeing activity impact those areas. After that, it is really a crap shoot.

[ninel conde]

I agree Ninel, So far this season, the ridge of high pressure (which usually blocks hurricanes and steers them west) has been centered over Florida and the southeast United States. If this continues throughout the summer, this would steer any storm across the central and western Gulf of Mexico. I think this will be the predominant feature for the next 2-3 months so I would say the central and western Gulf coast will be at a higher than average risk of seeing activity impact those areas. After that, it is really a crap shoot.

very possible IF anything is able to form.

[jeff]

Recent research suggests that there is little correlation between northern Gulf of Mexico landfalls and El Nino. In fact, even strong El Nino's tend to not affect northern Gulf of Mexico landfall potential. This is possibly the only area of the basin that does not seem to be affected by warm phase ENSO events. Below normal looks likely elsewhere...both landfall risk wise and formation wise.

I would watch the western Gulf in early to mid June if the current pattern of MCS after MCS keeps roling off the TX coast over the next few weeks. Some of this complexes in th elast few weeks have come off the coast with very well defined vort centers.