My 2015 Hurricane Season (with landfall) Outlook

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Thanks for all the comments, we shall see if I'm right or wrong in November.

[Andrew92]

Recent research suggests that there is little correlation between northern Gulf of Mexico landfalls and El Nino. In fact, even strong El Nino's tend to not affect northern Gulf of Mexico landfall potential. This is possibly the only area of the basin that does not seem to be affected by warm phase ENSO events. Below normal looks likely elsewhere...both landfall risk wise and formation wise.

I would watch the western Gulf in early to mid June if the current pattern of MCS after MCS keeps roling off the TX coast over the next few weeks. Some of this complexes in th elast few weeks have come off the coast with very well defined vort centers.

It's also rare that the Gulf of Mexico goes two straight years without any hurricane, and last year a weak tropical storm named Dolly was the only action there. The most recent time that it might have occurred where the Gulf went two straight years was 1962-63, pending re-analysis of Cindy. Sandy Delgado/HURAKAN's Master's thesis suggests a downgrade, but nothing is official yet.

And almost always, even if the year is El Nino, if there was no hurricane in the Gulf the year before, there is at least one major. I'm not saying it will happen this year, but something to strongly consider this hurricane season.

-Andrew9

[Ntxw]

Pressures are low in the western Gulf. The pattern is conducive to steering them that way whatever forms. I agree some storm complex could exit the Texas/La coast at some point this summer with such high pwats that may form something and be shoved back onshore in the western gulf.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I stand by my forecast, call it a hunch if you will, but I do not foresee any major Western or Central GOM impacts (much like the last few seasons).

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

Well one of my main analog years is 1991 which had a strong El Nino, -AMO and a +PDO also and one of the long range models that Joe Bastardi showed on his weekly summary what looked like an area somewhere around August\September of higher than normal precipitation from the Bahamas to just off OBX towards New England so your forecast could come true if this model is right in any way

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[MiamiensisWx]

You can disagree about the El Nino correlation with East U.S. Coast lack of impacts, but I wasn't simply stating my opinion - it's a fact. There is a significant correlation. Phil Klotzbach & I were talking about that and about the lack of correlation between El Nino and Gulf of Mexico hurricanes a few weeks ago. Of course, there are no guarantees in the tropics.

This is somewhat off topic, but it is related to the basic themes about activity basin-wide and along the U.S. coastline. People have been talking about El Niño having influenced or caused the lack of activity in the Mean Development Region (MDR) since 2011, but one glance at a major index, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), shows that two out of the past three seasons--all of which featured most hurricane activity outside the deep tropics--did not feature El Niño as a factor. By this measure, El Niño was not a factor in the 2012 and 2013 Atlantic seasons. Of course, there are other metrics to designate ENSO, but everything that I've seen indicates that the recent Niño earlier this spring (2015) is the first since 2009-10. While there has been a slight drought in the Sahel since 2010, this alone does not seem sufficient to account for the suppressed activity in the MDR, which seems more related to a decrease in instability during July-August-September.

Some studies use an index to indicate a weaker Atlantic Thermocline Circulation (THC) Index, which in part seems to be indirectly predicated on the strength of the Gulf Stream (p. 53). A stronger Gulf Stream seems to result in a stronger THC, which is more favorable for enhanced Atlantic activity. However, the index itself directly addresses "standard deviations of the surface meridional wind (Vsfc), the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and the negative of the sea level pressure anomaly (SLPA)" (p. 54). The problem is that other factors influence these indicators, which really are not directly related and can't be lumped together under one index. To be honest, this index seems to be a way for the forecasters to leave unaddressed questions that they either cannot explain or, for mysterious reasons, prefer to avoid. The contradictions can be easily seen:

many of the large-scale conditions typically associated with active seasons were present (e.g., anomalously warm tropical Atlantic, absence of El Niño conditions, anomalously low tropical Atlantic sea level pressures) [p. 1] ... [Yet] Relatively strong shear was generally present across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and likely restricted TC formation in these areas. ... Shear [basin-wide] was generally stronger than normal, more in line with a weak to moderate El Niño year than a cool neutral ENSO year like we observed this year. [See Figure 26, p. 45]

Somehow, the study by Gray and Klotzbach places practically all the emphasis on the overall dry conditions (meaning little deep moisture = reduced instability), cooling SSTs during peak season, and large-scale subsidence (upper-level convergence between westerly TUTT [Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough] flow and easterly anticyclonic flow) in the Atlantic. Their abstract only mentions these factors, when their results indicate that the above-average vertical wind shear should have been given at least as much weight (and hence a mention). In fact, in one section of their report, Gray and Klotzbach contradict themselves when they say that "reasonably favorable vertical shear" (p. 46!) was present in the basin yet was offset by overall dryness.

However, over the next several months, a very strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) developed (Figure 20). A strong NAO is associated with anomalously strong trade winds which enhance mixing and upwelling in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, causing cooling. [p. 40]

This statement contradicts Figure 25, p. 44, as well as Fig. 46, p. 45, both of which show an anomalously strong ITCZ (hence 850-mb westerlies over the MDR) in an environment of low surrounding sea level pressures, indicative of weaker-than-average trades during July-September. So the +NAO, to me, doesn't really explain why the favorable indicators, normally quite reliable, were offset by others that, based on past experience, never should have materialized.

A weaker gyre reduces low-level eastern Atlantic northerly winds and ocean currents from the north. In response, the tropical Atlantic becomes warmer, sea level pressures are reduced, more precipitation occurs and TC activity is enhanced. By contrast, when the THC is weak, there is less warm tropical Atlantic water advected to high latitudes and lost to subsidence at deep levels. [p. 54]

Might the relatively reduced expanse of summertime Arctic sea ice, meaning increased freshwater inflow into the Atlantic, have weakened the Gulf Stream, thereby allowing colder, denser North Atlantic deep water to percolate farther south into the MDR? This is a question that, like many others, Gray and Klotzbach have left seemingly unaddressed. I hate to bring this up, but since the planet's climate has changed many times in the past, without much (if any) human interference, brushing aside the existence of current climate change, whether anthropogenic or not, might not help explain a critical factor behind the recent unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic since 2011. For instance, the expansion of the Hadley cells, thanks to the absorption of heat in the Indian and SW Pacific Oceans, might well explain the northward shift of the polar jet, resulting in unfavorable westerly flow/increased TUTT occurrence over the tropical Atlantic during peak season. We have definitely seen that in recent seasons.

There were a number of inhibiting tropical Atlantic parameters which unexpectedly occurred this season such as have been discussed earlier. These negative parameters were responsible for the low hurricane activity which resulted. But the more basic question is why did so many of these negative hurricane genesis parameters occur when most of our large-scale pre-season precursor climate signals appeared similar to those which occur before most of the previous active seasons? [p. 60]

Many of the THC indicators are influenced by many disparate factors in the global ocean-atmospheric circulation, as well as extraterrestrial factors such as solar wind. Composing an index made up of several factors that in several cases may not even be directly related to each other in effect creates a misleading index that brushes over, hides, or obscures other signals. To account for recent changes in the global climate that now make above-average seasons harder to come by--even when traditional indicators suggest an active year--Gray and Klotzbach have turned to yet another, seemingly convenient index, this time more all-encompassing than their previous ones.

Another thing: notice how Gray and Klotzbach's forecast accuracies went down since the mid-2000s, when the pair began changing their proxies by combining or adding indices. P. 10 shows that their forecasting improvements have essentially halted, if not reversed, since about 2005. See this source, p. 10. While I highly respect Gray and Klotzbach's contributions over the years, I feel that, in addressing climate variability and its role in influencing Atlantic activity, they have fallen short. Whether they simply do not understand what is going on or are ideologically disposed to discount climate change, I do not know (well, I have some ideas, but I won't post them here). But by leaving the issue unaddressed, they are not exactly helping us figure out what's happening in the Atlantic.

My point boils down to this: when, if at all, are we going to return to a more active period in the tropical Atlantic? For years people have been warning about an uptick in activity that would culminate in more intense hurricanes hitting the United States. But since the active cycle began in 1995, the overall, average frequency of major hurricane hits per year has been lower than in previous nine-year periods during the last active cycle/+AMO period (1926-1969). Practically all of the 10 major landfalls since 1995, aside from Opal 1995, Fran 1996, and Bret 1999, occurred in just two seasons, 2004 and 2005. This is reflected in the recent record at coastal locations like the Miami metropolitan area. The following statistics--in which each nine-year increment, e.g., 1930-39, is called a "decade"--refer to South Florida, an area defined as being within either the NWS Miami's or Key West office's jurisdiction, thus including Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe, and Collier counties:

*During the last +AMO period (1920s−1960s), the mean frequency of major hurricanes in South Florida was ≈0.27 per decade.
*Since the most recent +AMO began in the 1990s, the mean frequency has been ≈0.1 per decade.
*The mean frequency of Cat. 4/5 hits since the 1990s (≈.06 per decade) is lower than in the 1920s−1960s (≈.2 per decade).
Source: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

Since 2005, no major hurricanes have hit the United States, yet we are still within an +AMO cycle. During 1926-1969, based on nine-year records, the average frequency was ≈.7 per decade. Since 1995, that nine-year frequency has been ≈.6 per decade, which seems close, but is actually much lower if you look at shorter time scales and account for the fact that 70% of the hits occurred in just two consecutive seasons, 2004 and 2005. The average gap between major hits from 1926-1969 was ≈1.79 years. Since 1995, it has been ≈4 years. Clearly, the latest active cycle has, for good (fewer/less frequent major hits) and bad (complacency, extensive damage from non-tropical and weaker systems), underperformed relative to the expectations and fears of many people. The question is whether the trends are temporary or a sign that something is canceling out the effects of the +AMO--so effectively that the Atlantic will never recover before the +AMO runs its course.

[Andrew92]

Miamiensiswx,

I must first give you credit with a well-thought out post over your outlook for this season and what the last couple seasons tell us, especially about the future.

However, to your one question, about returning to a more active Atlantic, I have to say we aren't going to know that this year more than likely. This year should be a quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic, since just about all El Nino years are in that basin, unless the year is a Modoki year (which 2015 is decidedly not).

Instead, what intrigues me in terms of seeing if the Atlantic becomes more active again is what happens in 2016 and especially 2017, assuming El Nino dissipates next spring. The first and second years after a traditional El Nino tend to be quite a bit more dangerous for one thing, as conditions get more favorable. The Atlantic doesn't always respond with greater activity the season immediately following an El Nino, however. One could even argue that the seasons of 1973 and especially 1983, in both the Atlantic and EPAC, behaved like El Nino years, even though they were La Nina. But usually the first year after an El Nino is at least somewhat busier, though can become hyperactive at times too, such as 1995 and 2010. So 2016 might be telling, but if El Nino is gone by the start of the hurricane season next year, it will be telling if next year at least isn't like 1973 or 1983.

If 2016 at least doesn't act like 1973 or 1983, it will probably be a pretty rough season for someone in the Atlantic. But then there is the matter of 2017. Hurricane seasons falling in the second year after an El Nino, thus far since the satellite was invented in 1960, has produced a nasty storm with a pressure of below 965 mb hitting the US every single time, even if just one time that year.. (Sub-965 mb is on par with major hurricanes on the Saffir/Simpson scale.) They also quite often see some of those storms rake the Caribbean or Bahamas on their way to such a strike, though 1996 was an exception, as neither area was hit.

Bottom line: 2015 won't tell us, but stay tuned anyway. 2016 and 2017 are going to tell us a lot more of the state of Atlantic hurricanes, in my opinion.

And remember, it only takes one to make a season. Audrey in 1957, Betsy in 1965....both in El Nino's like this year. It could happen, so be prepared!

-Andrew92

[Hurricaneman]

Miamiensiswx,

I must first give you credit with a well-thought out post over your outlook for this season and what the last couple seasons tell us, especially about the future.

However, to your one question, about returning to a more active Atlantic, I have to say we aren't going to know that this year more than likely. This year should be a quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic, since just about all El Nino years are in that basin, unless the year is a Modoki year (which 2015 is decidedly not).

Instead, what intrigues me in terms of seeing if the Atlantic becomes more active again is what happens in 2016 and especially 2017, assuming El Nino dissipates next spring. The first and second years after a traditional El Nino tend to be quite a bit more dangerous for one thing, as conditions get more favorable. The Atlantic doesn't always respond with greater activity the season immediately following an El Nino, however. One could even argue that the seasons of 1973 and especially 1983, in both the Atlantic and EPAC, behaved like El Nino years, even though they were La Nina. But usually the first year after an El Nino is at least somewhat busier, though can become hyperactive at times too, such as 1995 and 2010. So 2016 might be telling, but if El Nino is gone by the start of the hurricane season next year, it will be telling if next year at least isn't like 1973 or 1983.

If 2016 at least doesn't act like 1973 or 1983, it will probably be a pretty rough season for someone in the Atlantic. But then there is the matter of 2017. Hurricane seasons falling in the second year after an El Nino, thus far since the satellite was invented in 1960, has produced a nasty storm with a pressure of below 965 mb hitting the US every single time, even if just one time that year.. (Sub-965 mb is on par with major hurricanes on the Saffir/Simpson scale.) They also quite often see some of those storms rake the Caribbean or Bahamas on their way to such a strike, though 1996 was an exception, as neither area was hit.

Bottom line: 2015 won't tell us, but stay tuned anyway. 2016 and 2017 are going to tell us a lot more of the state of Atlantic hurricanes, in my opinion.

And remember, it only takes one to make a season. Audrey in 1957, Betsy in 1965....both in El Nino's like this year. It could happen, so be prepared!

-Andrew92

This year I expect to see few named storms but there could be a big one even in moderate to strong El Ninos like a Betsy or Audrey or even a Bob for those on the east coast but next year as you said will be telling

Moderate El Nino years and the next 2 years of landfalling hurricanes{and their landfall strengths} after an Moderate to strong El Nino

1951 El Nino: +1.2 no hurricane landfall
1952 Able 100mph Beaufort, SC
1953 Barbara 90mph OBX
Florence 80mph between Fort Walton Beach and Panama City Beach, Fl
Hazel 85mph Ft Myers, Fl

1957 El Nino: +1.8 Audrey 125mph Sabine River, La
1958 no landfall
1959 Cindy 75mph McClellanville, SC
Debra 75mph Freeport, TX
Gracie 120mph Edisto Island, SC

1963 El Nino: +1.4 Cindy 80mph High Island, TX
1964 Cleo 110mph Miami, FL
Dora 115mph St Augustine, FL
Hilda 110mph Franklin, LA
Isbell 125mph Everglades, FL


1965 El Nino: +1.9 Betsy 120mph Key Largo, FL 155mph Grand Isle, LA
1966 Alma 90mph Apalachee Bay, FL
Inez 85mph Florida Keys
1967 Beulah 160mph Texas\Mexico border


1968 El Nino: +1.1 Gladys 85mph Homosassa, FL
1969 Camille 175mph Bay St Louis, MS
Gerda 105mph Eastport, ME
1970 Celia 125mph Corpus Christi, TX

1972 El Nino: +2.1 Agnes 85mph Panama City, FL
1973 No hurricane landfall
1974 Carmen 125mph Lake Charles, LA


1982 El Nino: +2.2 no hurricane landfall
1983

[Hurricaneman]

Miamiensiswx,

I must first give you credit with a well-thought out post over your outlook for this season and what the last couple seasons tell us, especially about the future.

However, to your one question, about returning to a more active Atlantic, I have to say we aren't going to know that this year more than likely. This year should be a quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic, since just about all El Nino years are in that basin, unless the year is a Modoki year (which 2015 is decidedly not).

Instead, what intrigues me in terms of seeing if the Atlantic becomes more active again is what happens in 2016 and especially 2017, assuming El Nino dissipates next spring. The first and second years after a traditional El Nino tend to be quite a bit more dangerous for one thing, as conditions get more favorable. The Atlantic doesn't always respond with greater activity the season immediately following an El Nino, however. One could even argue that the seasons of 1973 and especially 1983, in both the Atlantic and EPAC, behaved like El Nino years, even though they were La Nina. But usually the first year after an El Nino is at least somewhat busier, though can become hyperactive at times too, such as 1995 and 2010. So 2016 might be telling, but if El Nino is gone by the start of the hurricane season next year, it will be telling if next year at least isn't like 1973 or 1983.

If 2016 at least doesn't act like 1973 or 1983, it will probably be a pretty rough season for someone in the Atlantic. But then there is the matter of 2017. Hurricane seasons falling in the second year after an El Nino, thus far since the satellite was invented in 1960, has produced a nasty storm with a pressure of below 965 mb hitting the US every single time, even if just one time that year.. (Sub-965 mb is on par with major hurricanes on the Saffir/Simpson scale.) They also quite often see some of those storms rake the Caribbean or Bahamas on their way to such a strike, though 1996 was an exception, as neither area was hit.

Bottom line: 2015 won't tell us, but stay tuned anyway. 2016 and 2017 are going to tell us a lot more of the state of Atlantic hurricanes, in my opinion.

And remember, it only takes one to make a season. Audrey in 1957, Betsy in 1965....both in El Nino's like this year. It could happen, so be prepared!

-Andrew92

This year I expect to see few named storms but there could be a big one even in moderate to strong El Ninos like a Betsy or Audrey or even a Bob for those on the east coast but next year as you said will be telling

Moderate El Nino years and the next 2 years of landfalling hurricanes{and their landfall strengths} after an Moderate to strong El Nino

1951 El Nino: +1.2 no hurricane landfall
1952 Able 100mph Beaufort, SC
1953 Barbara 90mph OBX
Florence 80mph between Fort Walton Beach and Panama City Beach, Fl
Hazel 85mph Ft Myers, Fl

1957 El Nino: +1.8 Audrey 125mph Sabine River, La
1958 no landfall
1959 Cindy 75mph McClellanville, SC
Debra 75mph Freeport, TX
Gracie 120mph Edisto Island, SC

1963 El Nino: +1.4 Cindy 80mph High Island, TX
1964 Cleo 110mph Miami, FL
Dora 115mph St Augustine, FL
Hilda 110mph Franklin, LA
Isbell 125mph Everglades, FL


1965 El Nino: +1.9 Betsy 120mph Key Largo, FL 155mph Grand Isle, LA
1966 Alma 90mph Apalachee Bay, FL
Inez 85mph Florida Keys
1967 Beulah 160mph Texas\Mexico border


1968 El Nino: +1.1 Gladys 85mph Homosassa, FL
1969 Camille 175mph Bay St Louis, MS
Gerda 105mph Eastport, ME
1970 Celia 125mph Corpus Christi, TX

1972 El Nino: +2.1 Agnes 85mph Panama City, FL
1973 No hurricane landfall
1974 Carmen 125mph Lake Charles, LA


1982 El Nino: +2.2 no hurricane landfall
1983 Alicia 115mph Galveston, TX
Barry 80mph Brownsville, TX
1984 Diana 100mph Cape Fear, NC


1986\1987 El Nino: +1.6 Bonnie 85mph Sea Rim State Park, LA
Charley 80mph OBX
Floyd 75mph Florida Keys
1988 Florence 80mph Mouth of the Mississippi River
1989 Chantal 80mph High Island, TX
Hugo 140mph Chaleston, SC
Jerry 85mph Jamaica Beach, TX


1991 El Nino: +1.6 Bob 105mph Newport, RI
1992 Andrew 165mph Homestead, FL
1993 no landfall


1994 El Nino: +1.2 no landfall
1995 Erin 85mph Vero Beach, FL 100mph Pensacola, FL
Opal 115mph Pensacola, FL
1996 Bertha 90mph Wrightsville Beach, NC
Fran 120mph Cape Fear, NC


1997 El Nino: +2.4 Danny 80mph Buras, LA
1998 Bonnie 110mph Wilmington, NC
Earl 80mph Panama City, FL
Georges 105mph Key West, FL 105mph Biloxi, MS
1999 Bret 115mph Padre Island, TX
Floyd 105mph Cape Fear, NC
Irene 80mph Key West, FL 80mph Sable Island, FL


2002 El Nino: +1.3 Lili 90mph Intracoastal City, LA
2003 Claudette 90mph Matagorda Island, TX
Isabel 105mph Cape Lookout, NC
2004 Charley 150mph Punta Gorda, FL 80mph Myrtle Beach, SC
Frances 105mph New Port Richey, FL
Gaston 75mph Charleston, SC
Ivan 120mph Pensacola, FL
Jeanne 120mph Stuart, FL


2009 El Nino: +1.6 no hurricane landfall
2010 no hurricane landfall
2011 Irene 85mph Cape Lookout, NC

20 hurricane landfall a year after a moderate to strong el nino
24 Hurricane landfalls 2 years after a moderate to strong el nino

6 MH landfalls a year after a moderate or strong el nino
10 MH landfalls 2 years after a moderate or strong El Nino

11 hurricane landfalls during a moderate to strong el nino
2 MH landfalls during a moderate to strong el nino

so based on this next year we should watch out but 2017 may really be a humdinger

ignore my previous post as I accidently pressed the wrong button


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Andrew92]

Good post Hurricaneman, though let me add a few things.

I think 1958 was also El Nino, someone correct me though if I'm wrong. That would put 1960 as the second year after, with category 4 monster Donna hitting Florida, and then steaming up the East Coast. Ethel came a short time after with winds of about 80-85 mph.

2004, on top of being in that second-year-after spot, was also a Modoki El Nino. In (I think) four tries since 1960, the year after one of those events has produced a major hurricane each time. The others (I think) are 1963, 1969, and 1991. Interestingly, all of the majors in 1964, 1970, 1992, and 2005 to hit the United States did so somewhere along the Gulf Coast at some point (though of course Andrew is most remembered not for that area but South Florida instead). Of course, it's possible Cleo might have been a major at landfall if it hadn't hit Haiti and Cuba and then had such little time to strengthen over the Florida Straits. Also, Dora weakened with nary a moment to spare from being a major hurricane before striking the St. Augustine-Jacksonville area.

In addition, 2006 was a weak El Nino, so 2007 and 2008 should be added. 2007 had short-lived 90 mph Humberto, while Dolly had three hurricanes hit the United States: Dolly, Gustav, and Ike. Dolly was 80 mph, Gustav 105, and Ike 110. It should be noted though that Gustav and Ike had pressures in the 950s for millibars at landfall, which as I said above, is akin to being a major hurricane, just not by wind. Check the Saffir/Simpson Scale for recommended pressure readings by category of hurricane in the Atlantic, and you'll see what I mean.

Irene is another such example. No major hurricane by wind, but that low pressure in the 950s meant it was so large that there was damage or a very large area, particularly with flooding.

1972-73 and 1982-83 were weird. The first year was El Nino and acted as such, but the next year in both instances was La Nina, yet acted locally like El Nino. Ava in 1973 was a Category 5, and one poster here has suggested Kiko in 1983 may have been one. Irah was a classical Baja hurricane that might have been a major before landfall and needs to be upgraded in 1973, while Tico was a nearly-undisputed major in 1983. And the Atlantic saw very little to no activity in the tropical latitudes, and even the subtropical latitudes and Gulf of Mexico didn't deliver much either. Only one major hurricane formed in each year, and each one was a major for only a few hours: Ellen in 1973 (higher latitudes, cooler waters) and Alicia in 1983 (landfall upon reaching strength).

In that sense, is it fair to call to mind 1975 and 1985 as coming two years after seasons that behaved like El Nino years, though weren't? 1975 saw Eloise hit the Florida Panhandle with 125 mph winds, while Elena smashed into Mississippi with 115 mph winds. Also, Gloria hit the East Coast as a Category 2 at its strongest, with a pressure at 942 mb on Cape Hatteras and 961 mb in Long Island and New England as a Category 1 (both below that 965 threshold).

Could 2016 pull off being like 1973 and 1983? Given 2013 and 2014, that it would be the fourth such quiet year, I tend to doubt it. I would also look for this year to be a quite busy EPAC year, along with next year on top of that, which seems like a stretch. But anything is possible, and if it does, then it would be worth keeping an eye on things through 2018 as well (maybe it is anyway, if that year doesn't go into El Nino, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there).

Again, 2015 likely isn't going to be the most telling year for Atlantic activity moving forward. 2016 and 2017 should be much stronger indicators of what kind of stage the Atlantic is in, if El Nino dissipates by about a year from now. I won't be enjoying a quiet season too much though, since I live in Arizona and know what we can get from these storms after last year with Norbert and nearly Odile.

-Andrew92

[Ptarmigan]

Good post Hurricaneman, though let me add a few things.

I think 1958 was also El Nino, someone correct me though if I'm wrong. That would put 1960 as the second year after, with category 4 monster Donna hitting Florida, and then steaming up the East Coast. Ethel came a short time after with winds of about 80-85 mph.

2004, on top of being in that second-year-after spot, was also a Modoki El Nino. In (I think) four tries since 1960, the year after one of those events has produced a major hurricane each time. The others (I think) are 1963, 1969, and 1991. Interestingly, all of the majors in 1964, 1970, 1992, and 2005 to hit the United States did so somewhere along the Gulf Coast at some point (though of course Andrew is most remembered not for that area but South Florida instead). Of course, it's possible Cleo might have been a major at landfall if it hadn't hit Haiti and Cuba and then had such little time to strengthen over the Florida Straits. Also, Dora weakened with nary a moment to spare from being a major hurricane before striking the St. Augustine-Jacksonville area.

In addition, 2006 was a weak El Nino, so 2007 and 2008 should be added. 2007 had short-lived 90 mph Humberto, while Dolly had three hurricanes hit the United States: Dolly, Gustav, and Ike. Dolly was 80 mph, Gustav 105, and Ike 110. It should be noted though that Gustav and Ike had pressures in the 950s for millibars at landfall, which as I said above, is akin to being a major hurricane, just not by wind. Check the Saffir/Simpson Scale for recommended pressure readings by category of hurricane in the Atlantic, and you'll see what I mean.

Irene is another such example. No major hurricane by wind, but that low pressure in the 950s meant it was so large that there was damage or a very large area, particularly with flooding.

1972-73 and 1982-83 were weird. The first year was El Nino and acted as such, but the next year in both instances was La Nina, yet acted locally like El Nino. Ava in 1973 was a Category 5, and one poster here has suggested Kiko in 1983 may have been one. Irah was a classical Baja hurricane that might have been a major before landfall and needs to be upgraded in 1973, while Tico was a nearly-undisputed major in 1983. And the Atlantic saw very little to no activity in the tropical latitudes, and even the subtropical latitudes and Gulf of Mexico didn't deliver much either. Only one major hurricane formed in each year, and each one was a major for only a few hours: Ellen in 1973 (higher latitudes, cooler waters) and Alicia in 1983 (landfall upon reaching strength).

In that sense, is it fair to call to mind 1975 and 1985 as coming two years after seasons that behaved like El Nino years, though weren't? 1975 saw Eloise hit the Florida Panhandle with 125 mph winds, while Elena smashed into Mississippi with 115 mph winds. Also, Gloria hit the East Coast as a Category 2 at its strongest, with a pressure at 942 mb on Cape Hatteras and 961 mb in Long Island and New England as a Category 1 (both below that 965 threshold).

Could 2016 pull off being like 1973 and 1983? Given 2013 and 2014, that it would be the fourth such quiet year, I tend to doubt it. I would also look for this year to be a quite busy EPAC year, along with next year on top of that, which seems like a stretch. But anything is possible, and if it does, then it would be worth keeping an eye on things through 2018 as well (maybe it is anyway, if that year doesn't go into El Nino, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there).

Again, 2015 likely isn't going to be the most telling year for Atlantic activity moving forward. 2016 and 2017 should be much stronger indicators of what kind of stage the Atlantic is in, if El Nino dissipates by about a year from now. I won't be enjoying a quiet season too much though, since I live in Arizona and know what we can get from these storms after last year with Norbert and nearly Odile.

-Andrew92

1958 was El Nino, which started in 1957. 1973 and 1983 occurred in less active or warm phase of the Atlantic. 1983 for the East pacific was quite active, while for West Pacific it was less active.

1975 and 1985 were La Nina. In fact the 1970s was dominated by La Nina; 1970-1972 and 1973-1976. They were multi-year La Ninas.

[CaliforniaResident]

There will be just one landfall in the U.S. in early to mid October and it will happen where you least expect it!
It's name is Waldo and it will hit right around the time this El Nino peaks.
Where's Waldo?
He'll land in a place that's least prepared for any type of storm whatsoever, let alone a hurricane!

[Hurricaneman]

It could also end up like the 1991 el nino which lasted into July 1992 and other than Andrew the season was cancelled out due to lingering effects
the 1982 El Nino had a similar issue with it not ending until July 1983 which almost killed the 1983 season except for Alicia

so if the El Nino ends like in between March and May the 2016 season will probably be a very dangerous hurricane season but if it ends during the 2016 summer it may be a very low number of storms but may have to watch for 1 as those ones that ended in the summer while a late start had some really bad and in 1 case in Andrew an historical hurricane so it only takes 1 in the case of those season to make them memorable

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There will be just one landfall in the U.S. in early to mid October and it will happen where you least expect it!
It's name is Waldo and it will hit right around the time this El Nino peaks.
Where's Waldo?
He'll land in a place that's least prepared for any type of storm whatsoever, let alone a hurricane!

No no no that does not make any sense. Waters are cool and shear is deadly over Cali

And we're referring to ATLANTIC and Waldo is only in the EPac and Philippine lists