2015 CPAC Season

[cycloneye]

With El Nino around,this basin will be more active than average and already models are hinting on mischief.

Names:

Ana
Ela
Halola
Iune
Kilo
Loke
Malia
Niala
Oho
Pali
Ulika
Walaka

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 20m20 minutes ago
GFS 12z showing potential for weak tropical storm dev SE of Hawaii +8 days. Rare but it's El Nino. @EricBlake12

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 14m14 minutes ago
@RyanMaue It would be the first that I know of in that basin during April or May.

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC and CPAC are lumped into HURDAT, though when September comes around, this part of the world should become busy, so I guess it's worthy of a thread.

When a CCKW approaches the EPAC, the GFS likes to go nuts near the dateline.

[Kingarabian]

Wonder how the setup will be north of Hawaii during the heart of the season.

Hawaii was really fortunate last season.

[Yellow Evan]

Wonder how the setup will be north of Hawaii during the heart of the season.

Hawaii was really fortunate last season.

That will be key. Because I think the waters will be more than enough to support a hurricane hitting the Aloha state.

[galaxy401]

A disturbance is expected to form in the EPAC that could move into the CPAC.

[Kingarabian]

GFS show it getting kicked back out to the NE, into the EPAC.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ana formed last year, brought heavy rains to Hawaii and peaked as a category 1 hurricane. So which means our next name is Ela

[cycloneye]

90E is about to cross into the CPAC but is falling apart.

EP, 90, 2015052412, , BEST, 0, 55N, 1398W, 20, 1010, DB

[euro6208]

I suspect maybe a few storms crossing into the WPAC with CPAC names and becoming monster typhoons just like 1997's Oliwa and Paka with Guam getting a hit from Paka in December. With el nino being forecast to be stronger, a few more is likely...

[cycloneye]

NOAA will have the release on Wednesday but the CPAC office made comments about the forecast and they are going between 5-8 named systems.

Tom Evans, acting Central Pacific Hurricane Center Director, announces our prediction of 5 to 8 tropical cyclones in our basin (140W to 180) for this upcoming hurricane season

[cycloneye]

Link to NOAA CPAC forecast.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/examp ... elease.pdf

[Kingarabian]

They're saying August and September the months to watch

[cycloneye]

This basin may have some tropical activity in the next couple of weeks so we will watch that.

[Ntxw]

Yeah looks like the EPAC-CPAC crossover season is about to start with the next big MJO. These are notorious for their massive ACE numbers when they crank and some of the most impressive ACE collection anywhere in the world, common theme in El Nino. Some examples are John 1994 and Ioke 2006.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah looks like the EPAC-CPAC crossover season is about to start with the next big MJO. These are notorious for their massive ACE numbers when they crank and some of the most impressive ACE collection anywhere in the world, common theme in El Nino. Some examples are John 1994 and Ioke 2006.

It's time for the long trackers to begin.

GFS and CMC also have some CPAC-WPAC crossovers, which are a distinct possibility, but the GFS is known to overdue the CPAC during an approaching a CCKW, so I'd advise us to be careful. Still, looks like we have a KW followed by an MJO pulse, which favors several tropical cyclones forming throughout the world's largest basin. Could see 3 in the WPAC and up to 4 in the E/CPAC.

And it's only June 23.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT JUN 27 2015



For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An area of thunderstorms located about 1200 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii has shown some organization and has increased in coverage over the past several hours. Additional development will remain possible during the next couple of days as it drifts toward the west-northwest.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through late Sunday night.

[cycloneye]

Invest 90C is up

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015



For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system located about 1700 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii has become a little better organized. Thunderstorm activity has increased in the past 6 hours, and the environmental conditions are steadily becoming more conducive for development. A tropical depression could form by Tuesday. The system is moving to the west-northwest at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent.

2. A weak surface low is producing an area of disturbed weather centered about 680 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system remains disorganized, but environmental conditions may become a little more favorable for some gradual development over the next couple of days while it remains nearly stationary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.

3. Thunderstorm activity around a weak, nearly stationary, low pressure area about 1000 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii remains minimal. Conditions are not expected to become favorable for development through late Tuesday night.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through late Tuesday night.

[cycloneye]

Invest 91C is up

[Kingarabian]

Hawaii has seen an unusual amount of hurricane activity over the past three years. Tropical Storm Flossie passed with 100 miles of the islands in 2013, and an unprecedented three hurricanes in one year passed within 200 miles of Hawaii in 2014. This included Hurricane Iselle, which made landfall on the Big Island on August 8, 2014 as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds--only the second recorded landfall of a tropical storm on the Big Island. Warmer than average ocean temperatures have made this action possible--ocean temperatures along the track of Invest 96E are about 2°F above average, similar to what was seen in 2014.

-Dr. Masters