2015 CPAC Season

#41 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:24 pm

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii remain disorganized. Environmental conditions support development over the next couple of days as the low remains nearly stationary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent.

Normally when you see CPHC go 40%, it's usually a TC by then...

#42 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 3:18 pm

12z GFS has it east by the big Island again.

ECMWF continues to paint the same story.

#43 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:56 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii remain disorganized. Environmental conditions support development over the next couple of days as the low remains nearly stationary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent.

Normally when you see CPHC go 40%, it's usually a TC by then...

Well models develop this by Thursday.

However, if the GFS solution is to hold true, it's in Hawaii's interest for this to get going now.

#44 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 5:48 pm

GFS is windshield wiping. 18z Back west and a Oahu Maui landfall.

#45 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 7:28 pm

Invest 93C is up

404UserNotFound · #46 Postby **404UserNotFound** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 2:42 pm

And now we have a record fifth CPAC-named storm.

#47 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:03 pm

Lot's of activity from the EPAC into the CPAC soon.

Euro and GFS are hinting at more Guillermo/Hilda type storms, and maybe another Kilo storm.

18z GFS:

12Z Euro:

#48 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:31 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Lot's of activity from the EPAC into the CPAC soon.

Euro and GFS are hinting at more Guillermo/Hilda type storms, and maybe another Kilo storm.

18z GFS:

12Z Euro:

These systems have already been invests. The one on the left of the ECMWF is Kilo and ones on the right are 95E and 9E.

The GFS model storm is also 9E.

1900hurricane · #49 Postby **1900hurricane** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 2:17 pm

Today's 12Z GFS has a real parade of storms across the CPac in the extended range. Storms enter from the EPac and exit into the WPac. Having them all at or just north of 20*N for so long does make me somewhat skeptical of the depictions, but regardless, what a wild solution if it verified!

#50 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 29, 2015 5:49 pm

Very impreessive.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 5m5 minutes ago
Two major hurricanes (Kilo and Ignacio) in the Central Pacific (140-180W) for the first time on record.

euro6208 · #51 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Sep 01, 2015 7:31 am

First time I've seen this chart go off the list outside the WPAC...

CPAC off the list!

#52 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:20 pm

404UserNotFound wrote:And now we have a record fifth CPAC-named storm.

Record may continue to grow with the GFS now showing a storm forming in the CPAC in 10 days and briefly becoming a hurricane.

#53 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Sep 12, 2015 2:25 am

00z GFS super long range but:

#54 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:57 pm

18z GFS has some Hawaii action in the medium range.

#55 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS has some Hawaii action in the medium range.

12z GFs had a Big Island landfall in the long range.

#56 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Sep 18, 2015 8:35 pm

spiral wrote:http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=61&p=2477791&sid=f5f11e50c6129429f68665ab528b831e#p2477791
Code: Select all
for laughs, see what the MU is doing in the CPAC. Has a slow moving Iniki and then breaks a piece off and rockets it toward the NW or Canada. This is after it has another hurricane that starts forming in 4 days threatening the islands

Alyono don't think it's a likely solution.

That exact run? Hec no. But it does illustrate that the CPAC will be conducive for development.

#57 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Sep 19, 2015 1:57 pm

Long range GFS lol:

#58 Postby **Extratropical94** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 8:58 am

With storms named Ela, Halola, Iune, Kilo, Loke and Malia, the CPAC has already used half of the Hawaiian alphabet this year (the other letters being A, N, O, P, U and W) and we might be lucky and get a seventh storm later this week out of 96C. I wouldn't have thought that the CPAC would be the basin to set records this year.

#59 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 9:35 am

Extratropical94 wrote:With storms named Ela, Halola, Iune, Kilo, Loke and Malia, the CPAC has already used half of the Hawaiian alphabet this year (the other letters being A, N, O, P, U and W) and we might be lucky and get a seventh storm later this week out of 96C. I wouldn't have thought that the CPAC would be the basin to set records this year.

What a strong El Nino does to the basin.

#60 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:03 am

06z GFS has a sub 900mb cat.5 in the CPAC in the medium range before going on to intensify it into a monster in the long range.

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