2015 CPAC Season

euro6208 · #61 Postby **euro6208** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:07 am

What will the name of this phantom Cat 5 be called?

euro6208 · #62 Postby **euro6208** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:28 am

Kingarabian wrote:06z GFS has a sub 900mb cat.5 in the CPAC in the medium range before going on to intensify it into a monster in the long range.

GFS brings this Cat 5 into the WPAC...

#63 Postby **Extratropical94** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:38 am

euro6208 wrote:What will the name of this phantom Cat 5 be called?

The next names are Oho and Pali.

#64 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:29 am

should see the 12Z MU. 3 CPAC storms in the monsoon trough

Darvince · #65 Postby **Darvince** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:10 pm

Now what would be REAL interesting, is if anything like that actually happened.

#66 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:39 pm

18z GFS continues to show a really active monsoon trough.

1900hurricane · #67 Postby **1900hurricane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:54 pm

I wonder how far east along the monsoon trough storms are going to develop. These equatorial westerlies are no joke. Seems like a good chance at least one CPac will come out of it with the possibility of more.

#68 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:09 am

00z GFS showing a lot of action for Hawaii in the medium range.

#69 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:17 am

00z Euro back to a Hawaii hit.

#70 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:42 pm

12z GFS has a Hawaii hit similar to the Euros.

#71 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:02 pm

12z Euro continues to have a Hawaii hit in 5 days.

#72 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:50 pm

18z GFS still a hit although weird looking.

#73 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:19 pm

00z GFS

Twin cyclone threats to Hawaii.

#74 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 2:41 am

00z Euro has a hurricane landfall on the big island. Then it intensifies the system as it rides the islands to the NW and then kicking out to sea. Of course the BS flag is raised here since no system will ever intensity over the big island.

#75 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:35 am

The global models continue to show a trough aloft far north of the area digging south rapidly. A surface low will cut off to the northeast of the islands by Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, one or more tropical disturbances may develop in an area of disturbed weather associated with the monsoon trough southwest of the main Hawaiian islands along 15°N.

The models suggest that the wintry trough to the northeast may pull moisture up over the islands from the deep tropics. One or more tropical cyclones could even move toward the islands from the southwest. So, the weather over the islands may become very unsettled starting as early as Saturday and continuing into at least the first half of next week. At this time the details of this complex pattern are still unclear.

#76 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 2:42 pm

12z GFS spares Hawaii, missing to the east.

12z Euro has a completely different scenario for some reason and builds back a high to force the system west. It then proceeds into blowing it up then being picked up by a trough and having a close call with Kauai, Iniki-esque.

All in all I think it's set in stone that we'll see Oho very soon.

#77 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:40 am

00z Euro back to a cat.2 Hawaii landfall.

#78 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:50 am

2. An area of disturbed weather about 1000 miles west southwest of Honolulu is nearly stationary. Thunderstorms in this area are disorganized, and tropical cyclone development is not expected within the next 48 hours.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent.

#79 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:43 am

06z GFS shows development but much later to the east of Hawaii. Deepens the system and swings it back NW close to Hawaii.

Euro is showing development coming sooner. GFS continues to delay development. Both show a strong hurricane near Hawaii.

#80 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 8:02 am

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An area of disturbed weather about 550 miles south southeast of Honolulu is nearly stationary. Thunderstorms in this area remain disorganized.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 10 percent.

2. An area of disturbed weather about 1000 miles west southwest of Honolulu is nearly stationary. Thunderstorms in this area are disorganized.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 10 percent.

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