2015 Global model runs discussion

[Alyono]

12Z EC was forecasting development of a TD or a weak TS

[floridasun78]

12Z EC was forecasting development of a TD or a weak TS

moving it to west into east pac

[gatorcane]

new thread started on the SW Caribbean system as we see an area of convection that has developed.

[NDG]

Last night's Euro, shows a frontal low becoming tropical and strengthening into a hurricane between the Bahamas and Bermuda in its long range forecast.

[gatorcane]

and that is moving SW too. The ECMWF ensembles are showing lowering pressures around there too, though I am rather skeptical considering the long-range and the ECMWF's track record.

[TheStormExpert]

Another saved image since I highly doubt next run it will still show this what I believe to be "Model-Cane". The GFS shows no such thing(not even close) and the Euro has been notorious this season for spinning up strong storms it seems.

[Blown Away]

00z ECMWF has a hurricane develop near Bermuda and moves SW... Looks like HP Ridge breaking down at 240 hours...





Has happened before...

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z Gfs has a low pressure moving WSW into south florida at 252hrs...very similar to the Euro. While the low isnt as strong as on the Euro it does show a similar setup. Lets see the 12z Euro later today


Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

[northjaxpro]

That is a large blocking High EURO is showing in those runs above.

[gatorcane]

It's interesting the GFS is now pickup up on this but do remember that last week the models were also in pretty good agreement on a similar setup unfolding for early next week and despite the model consensus, it ended up being just a model storm Below shows a good ridge and the low approaching the Bahamas moving west underneath it.

[chaser1]

Not too sure if there's any corrolation but that 1935 storm that struck Florida from in November from the Northeast, occured during a (Pacific) positive PDO phase, albiet that year was not an El Nino year.

[Hammy]

Significantly weaker on this run, more than likely (if this happens at all) it'll be a 3-4 day coastal storm that ends up being pushed SW as a low cloud swirl.

[Alyono]

18Z MU significantly more intense

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z MU significantly more intense

It also keeps the system offshore the entire time between the SE coast and Bermuda vs the SFla landfall as a weak system in the 12z run.


Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

[HURRICANELONNY]

Really doesn't matter the strength. Just that the globals are showing something is interesting. Not that it will be there in couple days.

[WPBWeather]

The most interesting thing is that this season continues to confound and amaze.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Pretty sure the Season is over.

[wxman57]

I didn't want to start a new thread on this, as it does relate to global models. Saw a tweet today about the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) that is scheduled to replace the GFS in 2018. See the link below. I hadn't heard of this model before. Their implementation timeline seems pretty ambitious.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nggps/index.html

[gatorcane]

Wxman interesting, never heard of that before. Your link doesn't work above (just remove the img tags and it will work )

[blp]

I found this link:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nggps/