2015 Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

All is set for the January 14 GFS upgrade. NHC has a wish list.

[gatorcane]

Looking forward to seeing how this new GFS performs this hurricane season. My fingers are definitely crossed too

[euro6208]

Since we are in typhoon season already, it's very exciting and can't wait to see how this performs once the upgrade is completed!

First test will be on our new TC 01W which develop yesterday...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=117052

[dexterlabio]

Is the GFS upgrade already applied today? The Parallel GFS run isn't available anymore except for the operational one.

[cycloneye]

Waiting for the official confirmation that the upgrade has been completed to post it. This was the last statement issued in December23.

Effective on January 14, 2015, beginning with the 1200

Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for

Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the GFS Analysis and

Forecast System

[cycloneye]

What is the opinion of the peeps of the results so far of the recently upgraded GFS?

What I have seen so far has good marks for me. I want to see when Hurricane season comes how it does.Please,no more May phantoms.

[Yellow Evan]

Well, the GFS already spit out a phantom EPAC storm.

[NDG]

Not that impressed with the upgraded GFS so far.

[euro6208]

What is the opinion of the peeps of the results so far of the recently upgraded GFS?

What I have seen so far has good marks for me. I want to see when Hurricane season comes how it does.Please,no more May phantoms.

Ok so far, it forecasted a typhoon out of Mekkhala which it did but still the same inconsistent different tracks and intensity...

[RL3AO]

From my understanding some pretty big data assimilation changes are coming next year. That will be the big step forward.

[cycloneye]

From my understanding some pretty big data assimilation changes are coming next year. That will be the big step forward.

More tweaking coming on March 10.

Effective on or about March 10, 2015, beginning with the 1200

Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for

Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will add five new GFS model

output grids to NOAAPORT.



NCEP is working towards removing older legacy grids from

NOAAPORT. In 2013, NCEP solicited public feedback for removing

some Global Forecast System (GFS) model output.



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... legacy.txt



The 381 km Northern Hemisphere (grid #201) is specifically on the

docket to be removed as soon as the new grids are in the AWIPS

baseline but we are also interested in removing numerous others.

Another PNS will be issued to determine the feasibility of the

plan. Any product elimination is contingent on providing higher

resolution GFS model output on comparable or better grids to

those being removed. So in response NCEP will add five new GFS

model output grids to NOAAPORT.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... aaport.htm

[cycloneye]

It seems that GFS was the winner of the big nor'easter for NYC as the snow totals there were more low that what NAM and ECMWF had.

[gatorcane]

Well this low the 18Z GFS shows over Florida certainly looks like something that shouldn't be there for this time of year!



A quick check against the 12Z ECMWF shows a low also, but it looks more winter-like than what the GFS is showing (though still a bit unusual to have something that deep that far south this time of year):

[TheStormExpert]

Not necessarily true, back in early February of 2012 there was a short lived Invest from a low that moved North and East out of the W. Caribbean/GoM then across Florida. The NHC even highlighted it yellow for a little while.

Also notice how the GFS and Euro each have a completely different 500mb pattern @ 240hrs. Some proof as to how the Euro has been doing poorly in the long range in the past week or so.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: Not necessarily true, back in early February of 2012 there was a short lived Invest from a low that moved North and East out of the W. Caribbean/GoM then across Florida. The NHC even highlighted it yellow for a little while.

Yeah but in this case it looks like the low's origins is frontal according to both models. In the ECMWF case, it keeps it attached to the front but in the GFS case it seems to split off into it's own entity looking even subtropical. The ECMWF solution looks too deep. At any rate, I will go with the ECMWF on a more frontal depiction than what the GFS is showing. I posted new maps above that depict this.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Not necessarily true, back in early February of 2012 there was a short lived Invest from a low that moved North and East out of the W. Caribbean/GoM then across Florida. The NHC even highlighted it yellow for a little while.

Yeah but in this case it looks like the low's origins is frontal according to both models. In the ECMWF case, it keeps it attached to the front but in the GFS case it seems to split off into it's own entity looking even subtropical. The ECMWF solution looks too deep. At any rate, I will go with the ECMWF on a more frontal depiction than what the GFS is showing. I posted new maps above that depict this.

Yeah definitely something that you would expect to see in June.

[OuterBanker]

Well this low the 18Z GFS shows over Florida certainly looks like something that shouldn't be there for this time of year!



A quick check against the 12Z ECMWF shows a low also, but it looks more winter-like than what the GFS is showing (though still a bit unusual to have something that deep that far south this time of year):

Very interesting Gatorcane. Just a note, always thought that the Accuweather long range to be based on GFS. But, I'm thinking that it may be a balance after your post. Their Feb 10 to Feb 12 long range forecasts very windy conditions here (27959 Nags Head) with sustained 33 to 62 winds for close to 48hrs. Needless to say it is a fantasy in either case which is good because those conditions would cause real damage here. The point is that their scenario is closer to the Euro than the GFS with their forecast.

[euro6208]

Well since the upgrade and before the upgrade, GFS has been the most confusing and inconsistent model to follow...I kinda follow GFS more over my favorite EURO because it's runs get released more often (6 hour vs 12 hour).

New GFS...

*Pressure not align with system
*Each run is different, sometimes showing a strong system and the other a weak system back and forth...
*Track is mostly inconsistent...

The other models are consistent with their track and intensity especially EURO...

[OuterBanker]

Quick follow up. Today high wind warning, coastal flood warnings, high surf advisories. Winds 30 to 55, 8 to 10 ft surf, 2 to 3 above tide. Actual low closer to euro than gfs. If not a blind squirell thing than kudos to the models. Maybe the one week models are getting better. Surprised.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro has a storm heading north toward Louisiana