2015 Global model runs discussion

[CourierPR]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2015083106&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=180hr

nice pattern for something big to develop in the sw atlantic or west carib if it werent for el nino.

El nino would preclude development in the SW Atlantic? I question that.

[chaser1]

Does anyone think another system could threatened the U.S./Fla this year?

Yes, I believe that there's a good chance that somewhere in the Southeast Conus/E. Gulf before its all said and done.

[ninel conde]

danny and erika would agree with me i think.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF is showing signs of life (wide area of 2+inches Total Precipitaple Water) in the BOC by early next week....12zGFS also tries to hint at something but it buries it way south. Something to keep an eye in future model runs.

Edit:12zCMC develops a TC by Wednesday and moving it NW toward NE Mexico.

[PTrackerLA]

Yep need to keep and eye on this area after this weekend with both EURO and CMC showing a weak TS and GFS previously indicating something during this time frame. I still think we will see a hurricane somewhere in the gulf before this season is over mainly because it is very rare if not unprecedented to have two years in a row without a hurricane in the GOM.

[chaser1]

danny and erika would agree with me i think.

Erika & Danny were fully tropical systems whose Atlantic MDR origin, belies the contradiction (and YOUR broad paint brush statements), regarding what impact "El Nino" conditions will have on regional and seasonal climate conditions. El Nino" did not cause Erika to develop, El Nino was not the cause for death and destruction in Dominica or other islands, and in case you were too busy looking for JB quotes to notice, it was a mid latitude trough in the Gulf that caused Erika to be completely sheared.

El Nino does not guarantee or dictate what the weather is going to be on EVERY single day for each and every town or city, from now until November (or later). Those who might think otherwise are ignorant and blinded from recognizing (or caring) other temporary or short term weather conditions which may easily influence weather forecasts and the conditions that may affect many for that particular region. Weather trends do not kill people or destroy property, no more no less than an increased risk of drowning caused by the rise in sea surface levels. - severe momentary weather conditions however, do. Erika or Danny may well indicate "some" characterists of future storms this year - maybe.

[tolakram]

danny and erika would agree with me i think.

You said the MDR was dead, you were wrong. 3 storms in the MDR now, 2 hurricanes, one major. The Caribbean is a death zone, which is why any storm than can't avoid it dies. In one of the strongest el ninos ever we are experiencing activity many did not expect.

[WPBWeather]

danny and erika would agree with me i think.

You said the MDR was dead, you were wrong. 3 storms in the MDR now, 2 hurricanes, one major. The Caribbean is a death zone, which is why any storm than can't avoid it dies. In one of the strongest el ninos ever we are experiencing activity many did not expect.

Yes, the MDR deniers batted 0 again.

[ninel conde]

danny and erika would agree with me i think.

You said the MDR was dead, you were wrong. 3 storms in the MDR now, 2 hurricanes, one major. The Caribbean is a death zone, which is why any storm than can't avoid it dies. In one of the strongest el ninos ever we are experiencing activity many did not expect.

we will have to disagree, yet remain friends. danny died in the MDR faster than any cat3 ever over deep tropical water. erika struggled in the MDR, and fred will move north die before it has a chance to traverse the MDR.

[tolakram]

we will have to disagree, yet remain friends. danny died in the MDR faster than any cat3 ever over deep tropical water. erika struggled in the MDR, and fred will move north die before it has a chance to traverse the MDR.

I don't know how to verify that Danny was the quickest cat3 to die over deep water.

I think the MDR is way overrated, and I think you misunderstand my point. The MDR is supposed to be dead this year.

Posting maps of all the strong to very strong el nino seasons. If we were having this friendly discussion 10 years from now, how would 2015 rate?

1957



1965



1972



1982


1997



2015 so far



What season was this?



I'm trying to make a serious point so I'll tell you the above image is 2005 trimmed to show just the MDR.

So what years are you using as examples of "normal" deep tropic seasons?

[Hammy]

I will make a comment about Erika and the trough, I think that was just one of those storms that for whatever reason failed to consolidate into a single dominant circulation even when it was in favorable conditions, and we've had storms like that in both quiet and active seasons (Isaac and Ernesto in 2012 being good recent examples). Had Erika consolidated sooner, while it was in favorable conditions, it would likely have been able to strengthen somewhat more than it did, probably enough to pass the islands and make it to more favorable conditions, as both of 2012's low-level messes were further south and had more water to work with.

Back to the models: WRF-ARW develops Erika's remnants into a small Claudette-2009 type storm over the next day or two, possibly in the 45-50kt range, but quickly weakens it as it approaches land likely due to the small size. The NMM variant takes it northwest, under more shear, and doesn't develop much. None of the global models develop anything more from it though I imagine should it follow the ARW solution, it would be too small for them to properly resolve, similar to Danny.

[ninel conde]

we will have to disagree, yet remain friends. danny died in the MDR faster than any cat3 ever over deep tropical water. erika struggled in the MDR, and fred will move north die before it has a chance to traverse the MDR.

I don't know how to verify that Danny was the quickest cat3 to die over deep water.

I think the MDR is way overrated, and I think you misunderstand my point. The MDR is supposed to be dead this year.

Posting maps of all the strong to very strong el nino seasons. If we were having this friendly discussion 10 years from now, how would 2015 rate?

1957

[img ]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/910/H0UlPz.png[/img]

1965

[img ]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/540/BV2eLm.png[/img]

1972

[img ]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/673/gxcPPY.png[/img]

1982
[img ]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/903/jbItZl.png[/img]

1997

[img ]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/673/4RLeC6.png[/img]

2015 so far

[img ]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/540/AyFI5Z.png[/img]

What season was this?

[img ]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/661/pXTyqF.jpg[/img]

I'm trying to make a serious point so I'll tell you the above image is 2005 trimmed to show just the MDR.

So what years are you using as examples of "normal" deep tropic seasons?

I would argue 2005 was hyperactive in the MDR because many waves managed to survive its crossing intact. 96/99 were also active. even 79 was active because fred and david survived it.

[tolakram]

I would argue 2005 was hyperactive in the MDR because many waves managed to survive its crossing intact. 96/99 were also active. even 79 was active because fred and david survived it.

I think you meant 2005 outside the MDR and I would agree. I know other seasons had a very active MDR but I think I made my point that this year, during a raging el nino, the MDR has had above normal activity vs what would normally be expected. It seems we also agree that an inactive MDR with better conditions close to the US can lead to a hyper season.

[psyclone]

danny and erika would agree with me i think.

You said the MDR was dead, you were wrong. 3 storms in the MDR now, 2 hurricanes, one major. The Caribbean is a death zone, which is why any storm than can't avoid it dies. In one of the strongest el ninos ever we are experiencing activity many did not expect.

Points. The most extreme bulls and bears quietly move the goal post when they think no one's looking. Expectations for a dearth of activity are replaced with unanticipated activity's transience. Although I may have never stated it on these threads I really thought there was a good chance there would be no storms below 20 latitude. So I was wrong too. And my preseason poll numbers of 6-2-1 don't look so hot either on 9-1. Just too bearish. And more evidence that a slow season does not=no season.

[JPmia]

we will have to disagree, yet remain friends. danny died in the MDR faster than any cat3 ever over deep tropical water. erika struggled in the MDR, and fred will move north die before it has a chance to traverse the MDR.

I don't know how to verify that Danny was the quickest cat3 to die over deep water.

I think the MDR is way overrated, and I think you misunderstand my point. The MDR is supposed to be dead this year.

Posting maps of all the strong to very strong el nino seasons. If we were having this friendly discussion 10 years from now, how would 2015 rate?

1957

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x7 ... H0UlPz.png

1965

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x7 ... BV2eLm.png

1972

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x7 ... gxcPPY.png

1982
http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x7 ... jbItZl.png

1997

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x7 ... 4RLeC6.png

2015 so far

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x7 ... AyFI5Z.png

What season was this?

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x7 ... pXTyqF.jpg

I'm trying to make a serious point so I'll tell you the above image is 2005 trimmed to show just the MDR.

So what years are you using as examples of "normal" deep tropic seasons?

Well if you use those maps as analogs.. NW Florida seems to be a target during these types of seasons.

[Hammy]

I would argue 2005 was hyperactive in the MDR because many waves managed to survive its crossing intact. 96/99 were also active. even 79 was active because fred and david survived it.

By that logic then last year was also hyperactive in the MDR since we had five hurricanes and a depression that all developed from MDR-originating waves.

And my preseason poll numbers of 6-2-1 don't look so hot either on 9-1.

Should've applied those numbers to the first half only, it would be spot-on

Personally I busted big time (and lost money as well by betting on my certainty) that we would make it through August with no hurricanes (instead we have two), and another bet of no storms at all.

Models: Euro seems to develop a very small storm (or a TD) in about five days or so, likely from the wave NHC has shaded, as well as another (probably weak TS or TD) in about a week or so. There's also a large low in the mid-latitudes but I'm assuming non-tropical for the time being. None of them show the BoC storm any longer.

[Rgv20]

Models: Euro seems to develop a very small storm (or a TD) in about five days or so, likely from the wave NHC has shaded, as well as another (probably weak TS or TD) in about a week or so. There's also a large low in the mid-latitudes but I'm assuming non-tropical for the time being. None of them show the BoC storm any longer.

The always over aggressive CMC picks up the BOC disturbance on today's run but pushed back the time frame to late next week and 1 12z ECMWF Ensemble Member shows a 999mb low to South Texas by mid-week.

[Alyono]

properly extend the MDR to through the western Caribbean and you will see there is no way, shape, or form that the MDR was dead in 2005. Ninel is using a poor definition of the MDR to argue his point

[gatorcane]

Not to mention both the ECMWF and GFS continue to advertise an active MDR over the Central and Eastern Atlantic over the next week or two. I would say the MDR is not dead by any means based on Erika, Danny, and Fred and now the next systems the globals are starting to show in their runs.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GFS is another run that brings the remnants of Erika slowly offshore the SE US, where it then gets stuck below a large upper high til about a week from now. Though SST's are largely in the mid-80's there, shear levels look like they'd be only marginally conducive for tropical development early next week. So, even if the 18Z GFS is correct, I'd consider tropical development only a low probability at this point even though it appears we may be inside the MJO circle then, which has tended to be a pretty favorable phase in Sep during stronger Nino's. It will be interesting to see if this run even has the right general idea as it could easily be way off base.