Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[northjaxpro]

On tally RAD the low pressure looks to be slowly organizing. I've got two feet above normal tides now with gusty SW winds in Hernando Beach. Neighborhood streets flooded with half a foot of standing water.

Well, based on the appearance of the spiral bands and the structure of the Low center, then Apalachee Bay Low looks the best it has all day as far as I am concerned right now.

There is a lot of energy spiraling away from this system too. I had a squall come through my locale about 90 minutes ago, dropped a quick 2/3 of an inch of rain in less than 10 minutes and recorded a wind gust of 36 mph.

[NDG]

C-MAN Station at Keaton Beach now reporting a pressure of 1008mb, which have switched to the ESE.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 10 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.5 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.3 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.5 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 10 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 10 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc_pressureconvert

[psyclone]

There's no doubt this has escalated more than expected. I think a headline for at least minor coastal flooding in warranted north of tarpon springs to the big bend...this area is very prone to water rises with an onshore flow.

[NCSTORMMAN]

If you look at the radar it is slowly drifting south almost south west the last few loops. Why is it not moving north yet like predicted?

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, with the surface Low center still over water, I can definitely see surface pressures slightly falling with the system.

[northjaxpro]

Since the surface circulation has stayed over water all day today, it has allowed for this system to organize a bit better this afternoon imo. Just look at the things I have just mentioned with the structure and the banding.

I would not be surprised to see NHC give this system a longer look this evening. They may even bump up the percentage a bit more in the TWO if the latest trends I am observing continues into the evening. No indications yet also of the expected turn to the northeast of this Low pressure area either at this time.

[caneman]

Well. It would seem to me this should be called a t.d..you have a closed low, pressure no down to 1008, wind speeds all along tampa bay at 40 mph, even though they may be gradient induced, waves really kicking up,.major flooding. whY not play it safe?

[caneman]

Here in indian rocks, the water was up to the top of.people's boats ramps and walkways. I agree, if we ever get something more that a high end t.d., moving in that direction, we're screwed.

[floridasun78]

i saw pic of flood on facebook real bad i see

[NCSTORMMAN]

What is causing this to move almost directly south? NHC said it was moving northeast earlier.

[ronjon]

Well. It would seem to me this should be called a t.d..you have a closed low, pressure no down to 1008, wind speeds all along tampa bay at 40 mph, even though they may be gradient induced, waves really kicking up,.major flooding. whY not play it safe?

Levi Cowan predicted a TD from this yesterday.

[ronjon]

What is causing this to move almost directly south? NHC said it was moving northeast earlier.

Steering currents are weak. GFS showed the low pressure drifting around the next 12 hours before getting picked up.

[tolakram]

Looks like center is moving east to me, very close to land.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=gray

Speed up the loop for full effect. Certainly there is banding, even over land.

[northjaxpro]

IF it drifts around over water the next 12 hours, this will be classified a TD, or possibly a minimal TS. I have watched this system all day and there definitely has been improvement with the Low. It is taking advantage of its unexpected trek back over water. The weird thing about the motion is that it is moving parallel to the coast of the Big Bend being only no more than 10-15 miles off shore at best. It has been fascinating watching this feature today.

[NCSTORMMAN]

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx

If you speed up the radar the CoC is clearly moving south the last hour or so. I think the convection blow up in the satellite you shared Tolakram is making it seem east in movement. I could be wrong but radar sure does look to be going directly south.

[hurricanedude]

hey jax....would it also take advantage of the waters off the southeast coast if it manages to stay just offshore the Carolinas?

[northjaxpro]

Tolakram, still just offshore drifting very slowly S/SE. I still do not see no definitive due east motion just yet.

[ronjon]

Yes it's clearly drifting south on RAD. And convection is increasing and wrapping around the center. It's due west of Cross City now and sinking southward.

[northjaxpro]

hey jax....would it also take advantage of the waters off the southeast coast if it manages to stay just offshore the Carolinas?

Yes it can, depending on how far off shore the SE US coast the system can get. If the system can get out to near the Gulf Stream, yes absolutely it can really spin up. Also, shear is a factor of course as well, goes without saying of course.

[caneman]

Can someone.help me out? We have lots of reporting stations with up to 40 mph pressure now down to 29.78 at one bouy. Well defined low. Why is this not being called a t.d. sometimes it seems.if a.model or nhc doesn't forecast it, they are hesitant to call it quickly. Not trying to flame them, it just seems they're slower to pull the trigger. Just my opinion of course and I could be totally wrong.