Development off SE U.S coast?

#41 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:29 pm

Look at that stretched out vorticity. Something may form anywhere along that...

#42 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:48 pm

12z Euro shows not much development through the next 5 days with a stronger vorticity developing by day 6-7 over the NE GOMand track northeast across the SE Coast, very similar to last night's run.

#43 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:58 pm

If that pans out, we are in for one heck of a rain event across North and Central Florida next week.

#44 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:07 pm

Also, interesting to see EURO come around to the CMC and what that model as showing the past couple of days of Low pressure forming in the NE GOM.

CMC may deserve kudos when it is all said and done. We shall see.

#45 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:14 pm

yeah, one heck of a wet week is in tap for FL if indeed this pans out.
Meanwhile I am in St Augustine today, trough came through this area, nice NE winds in this part of FL, this change in wind direction should help in ending the ongoing upwelling that has present for the past couple weeks, happy beach goers today.

#46 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:24 pm

and NDG you are in my neck of the woods today yes those north east winds feel nice today Definitely can tell the trough axis has shifted to the south of NE Fl.

Hammy · #47 Postby **Hammy** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:31 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Also, interesting to see EURO come around to the CMC and what that model as showing the past couple of days of Low pressure forming in the NE GOM.

CMC may deserve kudos when it is all said and done. We shall see.

I don't think any of the models really have any idea at this point, the Euro/CMC swapped places last night, now the Euro is currently going inbetween where we each thought it would go yesterday, the CMC is dissolving it into a trough, and now the GFS is showing essentially what CMC showed yesterday. It's almost becoming a case of throw a dart and see where it goes. :lol:

#48 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:47 pm

yeah Hammy it is a general mess with the models but I'm going to give the CMC credit if we do get development in the NE Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. That model consistently initialized potential development there the past couple of days.

#49 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:58 pm

There's actually much better consensus between the 12z GFS and 12z Euro. Just a slight time difference between the two.

Edit: meant to add that their consensus show that any development will be slow to occur.

NCSTORMMAN · #50 Postby **NCSTORMMAN** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 3:37 pm

Anyone else see what looks like spin in the northeast Gulf of Mexico near Florida? Or am I just seeing things?

Hammy · #51 Postby **Hammy** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 3:37 pm

I'm beginning to think nothing is going to develop at all out of this, after days of consistency the models are now all pushing development back with each run.

#52 Postby **HurricaneBelle** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:23 pm

NCSTORMMAN wrote:Anyone else see what looks like spin in the northeast Gulf of Mexico near Florida? Or am I just seeing things?

Not just you. NWS Tampa Bay notes in their AFD from about an hour ago:

LOOKING AT THE WIND AND SURFACE PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS...
ONE CAN IMAGINE A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA...NEAR
CROSS CITY OR CHIEFLAND.

That low pressure may be tracking toward Jacksonville as now it appears a squall line has formed that is moving SW through North Florida, whereas all the weather over the state the last couple of days including this morning had been moving SE.

#53 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:37 pm

There is definitely some broad spin in the NE Gulf of Mexico....

and the 12Z UKMET is showing an Eastern Gulf system that develops, moves slowly north then WNW along the Northern Gulf coast. See the other thread we have "Low in Gulf" for the model image.

#54 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:46 pm

Hammy wrote:I'm beginning to think nothing is going to develop at all out of this, after days of consistency the models are now all pushing development back with each run.

Models always tend to forecast development quicker than what it actually happens.

#55 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:48 pm

well one thing is for sure. The models have trended more towards the Eastern Gulf and away from a system forming off the SE US coast. The ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS are showing a Gulf low with the UKMET (usually a conservative model) the most bullish developing 1001MB tropical storm that impacts New Orleans at 144 hours.

floridasun78 · #56 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:50 pm

i see storms increasing in eastern gulf today here in south fl we getting rain this afternoon maybe what Model were picking up

#57 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:58 pm

So basically the models have skidded everybody from Atlantic Canada to Florida and now New Orleans , next will be Tx :lol:

Lots of rain for FL though thats certain. Lowering pressures and splitting/moving of heat ridges giving models fits.

TheStormExpert · #58 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:14 pm

NDG wrote:
Hammy wrote:I'm beginning to think nothing is going to develop at all out of this, after days of consistency the models are now all pushing development back with each run.

Models always tend to forecast development quicker than what it actually happens.

Didn't this kind of happen pre-Bill?

TheStormExpert · #59 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:So basically the models have skidded everybody from Atlantic Canada to Florida and now New Orleans , next will be Tx

Lots of rain for FL though thats certain. Lowering pressures and splitting/moving of heat ridges giving models fits.

Most certainly not disscounting Florida, there is still the Florida Panhandle.

TheStormExpert · #60 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:45 pm

Even though it seems somewhat less likely at the moment there have been a storm form and immediately make landfall and ride up along the East Coast and intensify over land some. Tropical Storm Brenda(1960) did exactly that and Joe Bastardi on Twitter mentions it.

It even caused significant rains in the same places of Florida that are experiencing significant rains now.

Development off SE U.S coast?

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