Development off SE U.S coast?
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Re: Development off SE U.S coast?
showing up on 850 mb vorticity. Time to lemon it IHMO.
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cycloneye
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Re: Development off SE U.S coast?
Maybe a mention at 8 PM?
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TheStormExpert
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18z GFS develops this into a weak Tropical Storm very briefly in about 12-18hrs. Peaks @ 1009mb. in 24hrs.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Wed Jul 29, 2015 5:37 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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TheStormExpert
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Re: Development off SE U.S coast?
MGC wrote:Too much shear right now......MGC
Got to be thankful for the relentless shear surrounding the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast or else this IMO very well could have been a hurricane possibly.
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cycloneye
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Re: Development off SE U.S coast?
They did.
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a low
pressure area, accompanied by disorganized thunderstorm activity,
has formed a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of northern
Florida. Additional development during the next couple of days, if
any, should be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds. The
low is expected to move slowly northeastward during that time and
merge with a frontal system by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a low
pressure area, accompanied by disorganized thunderstorm activity,
has formed a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of northern
Florida. Additional development during the next couple of days, if
any, should be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds. The
low is expected to move slowly northeastward during that time and
merge with a frontal system by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
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TheStormExpert
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Makes sense with the GFS showing development within a day! If it wasn't for the poor shear forecast the Euro could have been near spot on with this.
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TheStormExpert
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Re: Development off SE U.S coast?
I really doubt it will become a TS, not even a TD, there is no way it would sustain convection close to its COC for a period long enough with these type of upper level winds over it all the way to the Carolinas' coast. I am surprised the NHC is giving it a 10%, is more like 1% in my opinion.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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TheStormExpert
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2. An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the coast of northern Florida is accompanied by
disorganized thunderstorm activity. The low is expected to move
northeastward with no significant development, and is forecast to
merge with a frontal system by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
miles east of the coast of northern Florida is accompanied by
disorganized thunderstorm activity. The low is expected to move
northeastward with no significant development, and is forecast to
merge with a frontal system by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
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Re: Development off SE U.S coast?
It looks like it would develop if conditions improved but right now it appears to be weakening as shear and CONUS air wear it down.
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cycloneye
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Re: Development off SE U.S coast?
An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Georgia coast is accompanied by disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. The low is expected to move
northeastward parallel to the southeastern coast of the United
States with no significant development, and is forecast to merge
with a frontal system by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
miles east of the Georgia coast is accompanied by disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. The low is expected to move
northeastward parallel to the southeastern coast of the United
States with no significant development, and is forecast to merge
with a frontal system by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
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Re: Development off SE U.S coast?
Looks like a few thunderstorms away from being a TD or weak TS, I think shear will lessen tonight before it starts to merge with the front in a day or two. But I'm just a weather guessed, please refer to official forecast.
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cycloneye
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Re: Development off SE U.S coast?
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the South Carolina coast. This low is expected to move
northeastward and merge with a frontal system on Friday, and
significant development is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the South Carolina coast. This low is expected to move
northeastward and merge with a frontal system on Friday, and
significant development is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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