Development off SE U.S coast?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Development off SE U.S coast?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:42 pm

The time has arrived for a thread for the SE U.S coast development to be up.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form early next week
between the southeast United States coast and Bermuda. This low
could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
while it moves east-northeastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Cangialosi

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

#2 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:48 pm

This can't be the area the Euro blows up cause that basically rides up the U.S. East Coast offshore just paralleling it up to Nova Scotia?
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#3 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:53 pm

They are going with the GFS solution and not the ECMWF. Very interesting...

The ECMWF shows development off of GA/SC starting in 72 hours.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#4 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:54 pm

Yeah, you beat me to that explanation gatorcane.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#5 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:58 pm

The 18Z NAVGEM run shows a similar solution to the GFS with some development of low further north. I guess the NHC thinks the ECMWF is an outlier. I can't remember when the ECMWF was wrong in it's medium-range forecast on genesis. If it is showing something in this range, you got to pay attention!
0 likes   

NCSTORMMAN

#6 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:00 pm

Well I guess we shall see which model wins I guess.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#7 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:01 pm

Apparently, their thinking is that the current non-tropical Low will remain the dominant feature and meander out there while potentially acquiring tropical characteristics. Quite interesting indeed.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#8 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:06 pm

Well the low-level vorticity is greatest with the area further northeast where NHC has the shading, at least for now:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#9 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:15 pm

The 12Z FIM model spits out two systems. One is the NHC system which eventually accelerates ENE and it develops another system in the Gulf that moves west. The GEM also develops a Gulf system. Needless to say the models are all over the place as it is a complex genesis potential scenario. Can we get two named systems out of this?!? Will be interesting to watch what happens here!

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#10 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:22 pm

Well, I just had a discussion with Hammy about this a short time ago on the Global models thread. I felt that as that decaying front settles into the NE GOM by late this weekend, that Low pressure may try to spin up in the NE Gulf. It is a plausible scenario, not the likely one, but a plausible one. Also, shear values are already beginning to slacken along the Northern Gulf region currently.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#11 Postby Hammy » Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:27 pm

The models (Euro/GFS) have been showing off and on two low pressures developing, one possibly moving into the SE coast or up the coast, and the other forming earlier moving out to sea, presumably the NHC mention is for the latter of these?

Image
what the Euro (and possibly NAM given development location) is showing could be similar to this, and with any luck anything that forms will pass offshore instead of over the Outer Banks as Gerda did.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

#12 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:42 pm

:uarrow: Looks like Gerda made landfall in Maine according to that map?
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re:

#13 Postby Hammy » Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:50 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Looks like Gerda made landfall in Maine according to that map?


I think it made landfall a bit inside Maine near the border but the strongest winds were likely in New Brunswick given the forward speed.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re:

#14 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:59 pm

gatorcane wrote:They are going with the GFS solution and not the ECMWF. Very interesting...

The ECMWF shows development off of GA/SC starting in 72 hours.


The 18Z GFS develops 3 lows. The first forms tomorrow and heads out to sea. The second one forms Sunday and heads out to seas. The third forms early next week and moves inland into the Carolinas. The euro is focusing on a single low. I think 20% is way too low. I predict "Danny within 5 days.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Re:

#15 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 24, 2015 8:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:They are going with the GFS solution and not the ECMWF. Very interesting...

The ECMWF shows development off of GA/SC starting in 72 hours.


The 18Z GFS develops 3 lows. The first forms tomorrow and heads out to sea. The second one forms Sunday and heads out to seas. The third forms early next week and moves inland into the Carolinas. The euro is focusing on a single low. I think 20% is way too low. I predict "Danny within 5 days.

Which low do you think will spawn Danny and where might it go?
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Posible development off SE U.S coast

#16 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:16 pm

I think the area to watch over the next couple days is off the coast of NE FL & S of the S Carolina, is about the only area with better UL conditions will be.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: Posible development off SE U.S coast

#17 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 24, 2015 10:20 pm

I can see these possibilities happening in no particular order

1. Multiple lows but none develop into a tropical system 30%

2. Something similar to 2006 with an unnamed and Beryl 60%

3. something similar to a Gerda, Bob, Belle, Diana or Carol 10%

so this may be a very interesting time in the SEUS and possibly New England and Atlantic Canada and until the Euro doesnt show a New England threat then option 3 is still on the table but most models are showing option 2 so I'll go with that one right now

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#18 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 24, 2015 11:16 pm

Looks like the GFS forms this and sends it into North Carolina on the 18z run but the 12z Euro sends this NNE and passes Cape Cod as a cat 2 hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re:

#19 Postby Hammy » Fri Jul 24, 2015 11:24 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Looks like the GFS forms this and sends it into North Carolina on the 18z run but the 12z Euro sends this NNE and passes Cape Cod as a cat 2 hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


I'd go with the Euro, until either it stops showing it, or the other models resolve it better. GFS usually has trouble resolving frontal-based developments especially.
Interesting to note that it does develop a wave currently near Africa into a short-lived depression within a few days.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: Posible development off SE U.S coast

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 24, 2015 11:26 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:I can see these possibilities happening in no particular order

1. Multiple lows but none develop into a tropical system 30%

2. Something similar to 2006 with an unnamed and Beryl 60%

3. something similar to a Gerda, Bob, Belle, Diana or Carol 10%

so this may be a very interesting time in the SEUS and possibly New England and Atlantic Canada and until the Euro doesnt show a New England threat then option 3 is still on the table but most models are showing option 2 so I'll go with that one right now

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


For me, I'd give Option 1 a 5% chance, a 90% chance of option 2, and a 5% chance at option 3.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: zzzh and 62 guests