Development off SE U.S coast?

#101 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 1:50 pm

12Z Euro still develops the weak low that's just NW of Bermuda today into a TS by Wednesday as it heads out to sea.

Hammy · #102 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 4:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro still develops the weak low that's just NW of Bermuda today into a TS by Wednesday as it heads out to sea.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015072718/nam4km_ir_eus_18.png

NAM is showing this in 54 hours, is it the same one the Euro is developing?

mitchell · #103 Postby **mitchell** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 4:43 pm

Today's 12 z run Euro SL pressure map for 18z Wednesday shows the low scooting NE while winding up a bit?

#104 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:08 pm

The storm that the Euro develops near Bermuda does not look fully tropical, an UL trough axis will be right by it, it might have more extra tropical characteristics with 50 knot SW winds at H20 on top of it.

#105 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jul 28, 2015 7:24 am

The disturbance that the Euro was forecasting a few days ago to become a tropical storm NE of Bermuda today does not even look subtropical this morning, it looks more extra-tropical, IMO.

#106 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:16 am

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 10m10 minutes ago
Still some room for some mischief off the S.E. coast regarding possible tropical development. Convection will be key.

Nimbus · #107 Postby **Nimbus** » Tue Jul 28, 2015 5:47 pm

I see at least three vortices, one about 40N one about 33N, and maybe even one just off Florida.
kind of naked at the moment.

#108 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue Jul 28, 2015 6:51 pm

There is a 1012 mb Low analyzed about 100 miles east of Jacksonville by NHC at 21Z, but of course it is badly sheared.

TheStormExpert · #109 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:23 pm

18z GFS closes off a 1012mb low in 18hrs.

Hammy · #110 Postby **Hammy** » Tue Jul 28, 2015 9:55 pm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015072900/nam4km_ir_seus_20.png

NAM has been trending stronger and now seems to show a tropical storm by Friday.

TheStormExpert · #111 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:11 pm

Hammy wrote:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015072900/nam4km_ir_seus_20.png

NAM has been trending stronger and now seems to show a tropical storm by Friday.

Is the NAM even good with this stuff? I've always heard it IS NOT good in terms of Tropical Cyclones and forecasting them.

Hammy · #112 Postby **Hammy** » Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:13 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Hammy wrote:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015072900/nam4km_ir_seus_20.png

NAM has been trending stronger and now seems to show a tropical storm by Friday.

Is the NAM even good with this stuff? I've always heard it IS NOT good in terms of Tropical Cyclones and forecasting them.

NAM was the most consistent in developing Bill, and while I didn't watch it pre-formation with Ana, it was the closest and most consistent with both track and intensity. It was also the only one prior to Claudette's low moving offshore that developed it, and hasn't had any phantom storms this year, so it's done exceptionally well so far this year.

What is interesting is that the timeline is starting to fall into place of what the Euro was showing 4-5 days ago (albeit a bit slower in speed) and similar to what the UK model has shown the last 3-4 runs. I'm not 100% convinced of anything resembling the Euro's earlier runs playing out, but it's not off the table if this verifies at least.

I didn't think to start saving these until July,but here are Claudette's runs about two days out:
http://i.imgur.com/UTm19xV.png NAM at 57 hours
http://i.imgur.com/1hFGDVY.png GEM at 42 hours (which was surprising given how liberal it is with low pressures)
http://i.imgur.com/IJxPdN2.png Euro at 48 hours
http://i.imgur.com/Lltoqma.png GFS at 48 hours

#113 Postby **tailgater** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:28 am

Well if these 2 weak lows can combine we might get a shear TS out of it.
One east of Jax and the other NE of it.

TheAustinMan · #114 Postby **TheAustinMan** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 11:05 am

SPC mesoanalysis is quite impressive this morning concerning the low several hundred miles east of Jacksonville.

#115 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 11:29 am

shear is strong but finally it seems we have something trying to get going off the SE US coast. If that shear lets up some, you got to think something will develop.

Sanibel · #116 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 11:58 am

If a front lingers long enough in this area at this time it will form.

This one has obviously gotten going.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SouthFLTropics · #117 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 12:29 pm

Being an avid Tropics Watcher and long time S2Ker I am normally enthusiastic to have something to watch in the tropics. This time I am not.

There remains a massive search and rescue operation off the Southeast Fl,Ga,Sc coastlines to find Austin Stephanos and Perry Cohan, the two 14 year old boys who went missing last Friday off Jupiter. Any decline in weather conditions will only further complicate an already complicated search and lead to even more mental anguish to the family and everyone who has followed this search from day one. I pray this possible development goes poof. #findaustinandperry

SFT

LarryWx · #118 Postby **LarryWx** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 12:47 pm

Based on shear/sfc forecasts of the 12Z GFS as well as this still being a relatively quiet time of year climowise, I give this system off of the SE coast about a 10% chance of becoming a depression & a 5% chance of becoming a named storm.

tropicwatch · #119 Postby **tropicwatch** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 1:28 pm

Currently it appears to be drifting southwest. It would be not so funny if it drifted across Florida and back into the gulf.

#120 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 3:30 pm

Shear has once again stripped it.

Development off SE U.S coast?

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