North Central GOM

[tropicwatch]

Vorticity and convection increasing and shear decreasing in the area. Maybe worth watching.

[NCSTORMMAN]

No model support at all correct?

[rockyman]

The 18z GFS has weak low pressure hanging around the north central Gulf Coast for the next few days.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

[xcool22]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_12Z.gif

[northjaxpro]

One thing to monitor is that the Heat ridge that has been parked over Texas recently is forecast to retreat westward later this week. Should that happen, the eastern edge of the ridge will erode, which may allow for a southerly return flow across the Gulf Coast region in a couple of days. It is something to watch, but nothing alarming in the coming days expected of course.

[Sanibel]

The season is so bad nobody is even bothering to mention the GOM convection.

[tropicwatch]

There is a week surface low in the gulf but no model support.

[Stormcenter]

The area is actually located in the NE GOM but expected to drift westward. It's August and an area that should be watched model support or not. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[tropicwatch]

The area is actually located in the NE GOM but expected to drift westward. It's August and an area that should be watched model support or not. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

So true!

[CrazyC83]

I'd say it has a better chance than anything in the MDR. At least conditions in the Gulf aren't inhospitable...

[Stormcenter]

Something definitely spinning there.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=10

[La Breeze]

I'd say it has a better chance than anything in the MDR. At least conditions in the Gulf aren't inhospitable...

What are the SST's out in the northern GOM at this time? I'm sure that the water has had time to heat up quite nicely too.

[TheStormExpert]

I'd say it has a better chance than anything in the MDR. At least conditions in the Gulf aren't inhospitable...

What are the SST's out in the northern GOM at this time? I'm sure that the water has had time to heat up quite nicely too.

Gulf of Mexico SST's are plenty warm, as usual. It's the shear that is the real problem for anything trying to get going.

[tropicwatch]

Visible satellite showing signs of circulation south of Louisiana this morning.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28.5&lon=-86.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

[Ntxw]

Shear is 20-30+ knots along the northern gulf coast. Pockets of weaker shear to the south but net overall is higher and expected to increase in the coming days. The atmosphere is the ultimate dictator if something forms, not so much SST's as they are always warm this time of year for many more weeks, as increased shear will rip from the gulf to the Caribbean and out into the open Atlantic at least for the next 5-7 days.

[KatDaddy]

Something to watch over the next week. Lots of heat content in the GOM and bursts of convection from day to day. If the shear decreases there could be some oppurtunity for some development. For now I will set back and watch.

[TheStormExpert]

Shear is 20-30+ knots along the northern gulf coast. Pockets of weaker shear to the south but net overall is higher and expected to increase in the coming days. The atmosphere is the ultimate dictator if something forms, not so much SST's as they are always warm this time of year for many more weeks.

What has been causing all this relentless shear in the GoM, and off the U.S. East Coast?

[Ntxw]

Shear is 20-30+ knots along the northern gulf coast. Pockets of weaker shear to the south but net overall is higher and expected to increase in the coming days. The atmosphere is the ultimate dictator if something forms, not so much SST's as they are always warm this time of year for many more weeks.

What has been causing all this relentless shear in the GoM, and off the U.S. East Coast?

I'm not certain, ridge over the southern conus definitely plays a role. Higher pressures doesn't help waves. I'm not all that sure the gulf has even been that inhospitable with a lot of convection over the past couple of weeks. But remember it takes very good conditions to spin up tropical cyclones, so average (10-20knots) of shear etc isn't going to cut it.

[TheStormExpert]

Shear is 20-30+ knots along the northern gulf coast. Pockets of weaker shear to the south but net overall is higher and expected to increase in the coming days. The atmosphere is the ultimate dictator if something forms, not so much SST's as they are always warm this time of year for many more weeks.

What has been causing all this relentless shear in the GoM, and off the U.S. East Coast?

I'm not certain, ridge over the southern conus definitely plays a role. Higher pressures doesn't help waves. I'm not all that sure the gulf has even been that inhospitable with a lot of convection over the past couple of weeks. But remember it takes very good conditions to spin up tropical cyclones, so average (10-20knots) of shear etc isn't going to cut it.

There have been a few good opportunities for Tropical Development over the past several weeks, but the shear just wouldn't allow development.

Any break in shear for a few days at least could allow for something to possibly form, IF there is even a disturbance present at the time.

[Ntxw]

There have been a few good opportunities for Tropical Development over the past several weeks, but the shear just wouldn't allow development.

Any break in shear for a few days at least could allow for something to possibly form, IF there is even a disturbance present at the time.

I'd like to see a consolidated MCS, something organized roll off the land to trust potential better chance or if a wave can survive the Caribbean and get to the gulf (if that is even possible). Too much has it been strung out, spin a weak low here, weak low there, frontal boundary, none of it is bundled enough to organize too much of a mess.