North Central GOM

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tropicwatch
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#41 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 15, 2015 1:43 pm

There are two area's of vorticity but the shear is probably going to be the inhibiter.

Image
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Re:

#42 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Sat Aug 15, 2015 1:44 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:There are two area's of vorticity but the shear is probably going to be the inhibiter.

Image



What shear? Not saying you are wrong but these updated maps here shows a different story.

Image

Image

Image
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#43 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 15, 2015 1:46 pm

Northern gulf 20-30kts.
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#44 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Sat Aug 15, 2015 1:48 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Northern gulf 20-30kts.



I see the spin just to the south of Mississippi. The shear on those maps is above the spin by a little bit and the other spin there is no shear. I am more than probably wrong but I am just looking at maps not a met.
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#45 Postby MGC » Sat Aug 15, 2015 2:00 pm

Low SE of mouth of river should be inland soon. Moderate shear over it too. Low chance of development.....MGC
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#46 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Sat Aug 15, 2015 2:06 pm

MGC wrote:Low SE of mouth of river should be inland soon. Moderate shear over it too. Low chance of development.....MGC


I agree no doubt about chances being extremely low.
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#47 Postby tailgater » Sat Aug 15, 2015 2:22 pm

MGC wrote:Low SE of mouth of river should be inland soon. Moderate shear over it too. Low chance of development.....MGC


I sure hope it brings some rain to my parched brown yard
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Re: North Central GOM

#48 Postby TexWx » Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:15 pm

Anything worth looking at directly South of Houston out in the gulf?

Looking on my phone, so I can't really tell.
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Re: North Central GOM

#49 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:20 pm

TexWx wrote:Anything worth looking at directly South of Houston out in the gulf?

Looking on my phone, so I can't really tell.



I personally think something is trying to get going in the center of the Gulf of Mexico.
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Re: Re:

#50 Postby Nederlander » Sat Aug 15, 2015 10:51 pm

NCSTORMMAN wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:There are two area's of vorticity but the shear is probably going to be the inhibiter.

Image



What shear? Not saying you are wrong but these updated maps here shows a different story.

Image

Image

Image


Are those maps 850mb level or upper level?
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#51 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 16, 2015 12:26 am

Nice little train setting up tonight pointing from south of Mobile Bay toward the Chandeleur Islands and St. Bernard Parish. We have had a couple of showers move through. It's all coming out the east/ese. Air is different and wind is different than it has been in a while. As an aside, up until Thursday, we had 7 days in 1997 which were 95 or above. This year it's in the 20s. That is statistically different at least for SELA.
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#52 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:04 am

Lots of unsettled weather this morning in the Northern GOM region. This morning, a very impressive convective complex has developed just to the south of the Mississippi coast. There is also a second area of convection beginning to increase down across the NW GOM a couple of hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast.

There is no model support for development I can find, but it does show that moisture is rapidly returning into the GOM . We are now seeing subtle changes in the GOM that may signal down the road that may allow tropical cyclone development down there soon, especially as we get into September.
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#53 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:25 am

There is a Low just off the Coast of TX but all the convection is well east along the trough. Don't see anything developing from this mess, but nice rains this week along the upper Gulf Coast.
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Re:

#54 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:07 am

Steve wrote:Nice little train setting up tonight pointing from south of Mobile Bay toward the Chandeleur Islands and St. Bernard Parish. We have had a couple of showers move through. It's all coming out the east/ese. Air is different and wind is different than it has been in a while. As an aside, up until Thursday, we had 7 days in 1997 which were 95 or above. This year it's in the 20s. That is statistically different at least for SELA.


Hello Steve! We've also had some pretty good squalls the past 24 hours.. had a great stiff ESE wind yesterday afternoon keeping the temps in the mid 85s, very tropical yesterday and today.. would love to see a couple more squalls today... Lots of new construction happening on my Biloxi beach block this year.. 3 new homes going up, and for the first time in 10 years I will actually have a neighbor in the lot next to mine... not sure why he build basically on the ground in lieu of going up on pilings, guess he must have lots of money for insurance... but this weather sure in the hell beats all the massive heat issues we've had of late... would love to see a TD (and no more) form and deluge us with copious amounts of needed rain...
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Re: North Central GOM

#55 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:43 am

Might be getting the first storm to roll through here in just a little while. It's been weeks without rain. Of more importance is the cloud cover and rain could keep the temps from breaking 90 since June.
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#56 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 16, 2015 3:38 pm

I've been watching the models closely and I think this system is what will contribute to whatever low pressure forms over the western Atlantic in 3-5 days.
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