2015 TCRs

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Andrew92
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2015 TCRs

#1 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Aug 12, 2015 12:04 am

The first report is out: Andres.

ATLANTIC
Ana: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL012015_Ana.pdf
Bill: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022015_Bill.pdf
Claudette: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL032015_Claudette.pdf
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072015_Grace.pdf
Henri: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082015_Henri.pdf
TD #9: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092015_Nine.pdf
Ida: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL102015_Ida.pdf
Joaquin: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112015_Joaquin.pdf
Kate: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/dat/tcr/AL122015_Kate.pdf

EAST PACIFIC
Andres: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP012015_Andres.pdf
Blanca: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP022015_Blanca.pdf
Carlos: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP032015_Carlos.pdf
TD #4/Ela
Dolores: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP052015_Dolores.pdf
Enrique: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP062015_Enrique.pdf
Felicia: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP072015_Felicia.pdf
TD #8: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP082015_Eight-E.pdf
Guillermo: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP092015_Guillermo.pdf
Hilda: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP102015_Hilda.pdf
TD #11
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142015_Kevin.pdf
Linda: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP152015_Linda.pdf
TD #16: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP162015_Sixteen-E.pdf
Marty: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP172015_Marty.pdf
Nora: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP182015_Nora.pdf
Olaf
Patricia: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202015_Patricia.pdf
Rick
Sandra

Mods, as any new reports come out, please feel free to update accordingly.

-Andrew92
Last edited by Andrew92 on Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:47 pm, edited 9 times in total.
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#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 12, 2015 12:36 am

NHC did a terrible job with the Andres TCR.
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Re:

#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 13, 2015 2:33 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:NHC did a terrible job with the Andres TCR.


What do you mean by that?
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Re: Re:

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 13, 2015 3:10 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:NHC did a terrible job with the Andres TCR.


What do you mean by that?



I don't agree with their estimates in certain places.
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#5 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:23 pm

First one in the Atlantic is now out: Claudette.
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#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 17, 2015 8:41 pm

No real changes with Claudette - the genesis time moved up as expected though.

Also from 2014, CPHC finally released Wali and Ana TCR's.
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#7 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:26 am

Felicia report is now out.
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#8 Postby Andrew92 » Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:47 pm

Bill report is now out.
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#9 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 1:11 am

TD #8 report now up.
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#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:54 am

I would have upgraded TD 8E to TS. TAFB came in at T2.5 and ADT was T2.6 and AMSU was at TS status for a while. SAB was T2.0. Why does the data have to be unanimous to upgrade a 30 knt storm to 35 knots and not a 35 knot system to 40 knots?
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#11 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 10:23 am

Enrique is also out. No change with that storm.
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Re:

#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 5:40 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:I would have upgraded TD 8E to TS. TAFB came in at T2.5 and ADT was T2.6 and AMSU was at TS status for a while. SAB was T2.0. Why does the data have to be unanimous to upgrade a 30 knt storm to 35 knots and not a 35 knot system to 40 knots?


I would suspect since it involves a change of status, they want to be absolutely sure before calling a depression a storm.
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Re: Re:

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 18, 2015 10:17 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:I would have upgraded TD 8E to TS. TAFB came in at T2.5 and ADT was T2.6 and AMSU was at TS status for a while. SAB was T2.0. Why does the data have to be unanimous to upgrade a 30 knt storm to 35 knots and not a 35 knot system to 40 knots?


I would suspect since it involves a change of status, they want to be absolutely sure before calling a depression a storm.


Why is status relevant when a storm is no threat to land? It's IMO the NHC's job to provide the best intensity estimates regardless of status.
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#14 Postby talkon » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:15 pm

Guillermo report is out. Changed from 90kt/970mb to 95/967.
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#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:44 pm

I hate the partial reports the NHC puts out for EPAC storms before the CPHC can get to them for CPAC portions. After all, they still have not been updated for three storms over a year later from 2014...

As for Guillermo, an argument could be made for 100 kt as well given the Dvorak was consensus T5.5 at peak intensity.
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#16 Postby NotoSans » Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:08 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL012015_Ana.pdf
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082015_Henri.pdf

Ana and Henri reports are out. Henri's peak intensity is adjusted to 45 kt based on ASCAT.
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#17 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:21 pm

Carlos report is now out.

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#18 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:25 pm

Dolores is out too.
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#19 Postby NotoSans » Sat Nov 07, 2015 5:32 am

Hilda is out. Note that it only includes the EPAC portion.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP102015_Hilda.pdf
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#20 Postby NotoSans » Tue Nov 10, 2015 4:11 pm

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