2015 TCRs

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 40
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

2015 TCRs

#1 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Aug 12, 2015 12:04 am

The first report is out: Andres.

ATLANTIC
Ana: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL012015_Ana.pdf
Bill: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022015_Bill.pdf
Claudette: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL032015_Claudette.pdf
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072015_Grace.pdf
Henri: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082015_Henri.pdf
TD #9: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092015_Nine.pdf
Ida: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL102015_Ida.pdf
Joaquin: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112015_Joaquin.pdf
Kate: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/dat/tcr/AL122015_Kate.pdf

EAST PACIFIC
Andres: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP012015_Andres.pdf
Blanca: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP022015_Blanca.pdf
Carlos: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP032015_Carlos.pdf
TD #4/Ela
Dolores: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP052015_Dolores.pdf
Enrique: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP062015_Enrique.pdf
Felicia: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP072015_Felicia.pdf
TD #8: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP082015_Eight-E.pdf
Guillermo: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP092015_Guillermo.pdf
Hilda: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP102015_Hilda.pdf
TD #11
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142015_Kevin.pdf
Linda: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP152015_Linda.pdf
TD #16: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP162015_Sixteen-E.pdf
Marty: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP172015_Marty.pdf
Nora: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP182015_Nora.pdf
Olaf
Patricia: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202015_Patricia.pdf
Rick
Sandra

Mods, as any new reports come out, please feel free to update accordingly.

-Andrew92
Last edited by Andrew92 on Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:47 pm, edited 9 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 12, 2015 12:36 am

NHC did a terrible job with the Andres TCR.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re:

#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 13, 2015 2:33 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:NHC did a terrible job with the Andres TCR.


What do you mean by that?
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: Re:

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 13, 2015 3:10 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:NHC did a terrible job with the Andres TCR.


What do you mean by that?



I don't agree with their estimates in certain places.
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#5 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:23 pm

First one in the Atlantic is now out: Claudette.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 17, 2015 8:41 pm

No real changes with Claudette - the genesis time moved up as expected though.

Also from 2014, CPHC finally released Wali and Ana TCR's.
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#7 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:26 am

Felicia report is now out.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 40
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#8 Postby Andrew92 » Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:47 pm

Bill report is now out.
0 likes   

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 40
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#9 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 1:11 am

TD #8 report now up.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:54 am

I would have upgraded TD 8E to TS. TAFB came in at T2.5 and ADT was T2.6 and AMSU was at TS status for a while. SAB was T2.0. Why does the data have to be unanimous to upgrade a 30 knt storm to 35 knots and not a 35 knot system to 40 knots?
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#11 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 10:23 am

Enrique is also out. No change with that storm.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re:

#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 5:40 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:I would have upgraded TD 8E to TS. TAFB came in at T2.5 and ADT was T2.6 and AMSU was at TS status for a while. SAB was T2.0. Why does the data have to be unanimous to upgrade a 30 knt storm to 35 knots and not a 35 knot system to 40 knots?


I would suspect since it involves a change of status, they want to be absolutely sure before calling a depression a storm.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: Re:

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 18, 2015 10:17 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:I would have upgraded TD 8E to TS. TAFB came in at T2.5 and ADT was T2.6 and AMSU was at TS status for a while. SAB was T2.0. Why does the data have to be unanimous to upgrade a 30 knt storm to 35 knots and not a 35 knot system to 40 knots?


I would suspect since it involves a change of status, they want to be absolutely sure before calling a depression a storm.


Why is status relevant when a storm is no threat to land? It's IMO the NHC's job to provide the best intensity estimates regardless of status.
0 likes   

talkon
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 204
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:28 am

#14 Postby talkon » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:15 pm

Guillermo report is out. Changed from 90kt/970mb to 95/967.
0 likes   
DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist. Any posts I made, unless copied from some official agency, are only my opinion and is unofficial and often exaggerated. Please refer to your official RSMC for official products and warnings.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:44 pm

I hate the partial reports the NHC puts out for EPAC storms before the CPHC can get to them for CPAC portions. After all, they still have not been updated for three storms over a year later from 2014...

As for Guillermo, an argument could be made for 100 kt as well given the Dvorak was consensus T5.5 at peak intensity.
0 likes   

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

#16 Postby NotoSans » Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:08 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL012015_Ana.pdf
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082015_Henri.pdf

Ana and Henri reports are out. Henri's peak intensity is adjusted to 45 kt based on ASCAT.
0 likes   

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 40
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#17 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:21 pm

Carlos report is now out.

-Andrew92
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#18 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:25 pm

Dolores is out too.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

#19 Postby NotoSans » Sat Nov 07, 2015 5:32 am

Hilda is out. Note that it only includes the EPAC portion.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP102015_Hilda.pdf
0 likes   

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

#20 Postby NotoSans » Tue Nov 10, 2015 4:11 pm

0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: KirbyDude25, Lizzytiz1, ljmac75, MarioProtVI, ScottNAtlanta and 61 guests