2015 TCRs

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CrazyC83
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#21 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:19 pm

NotoSans wrote:Hilda is out. Note that it only includes the EPAC portion.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP102015_Hilda.pdf


I wish they would hold back reports and not release partial reports. It seems it doesn't motivate CPHC (which has fewer staff) to do the work - the 2014 reports are not completed yet.
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#22 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 15, 2015 8:36 pm

I'm thinking about the Joaquin TCR (probably won't be out until early 2016) - didn't the remnant low actually show (sub)tropical characteristics off the coast of Portugal? So maybe Joaquin will show up as reborn around October 11-14?
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#23 Postby NotoSans » Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:32 am

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Re: 2015 TCRs

#24 Postby Hammy » Mon Nov 30, 2015 4:50 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072015_Grace.pdf
Grace report out. Bumped up to 50kt to coincide with mid-level eye on microwave.
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#25 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:31 pm

Hammy wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072015_Grace.pdf
Grace report out. Bumped up to 50kt to coincide with mid-level eye on microwave.


Given the split in Dvorak and the AMSU data, I'd have gone higher - 55 or 60 kt.

It's going to take a while to get them all done, I would think Patricia will be the last one - probably not until February at least (except for the CPAC ones which are likely dependent on workload).
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#26 Postby NotoSans » Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:34 pm

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Re: 2015 TCRs

#27 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Nov 30, 2015 7:48 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Hammy wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072015_Grace.pdf
Grace report out. Bumped up to 50kt to coincide with mid-level eye on microwave.


Given the split in Dvorak and the AMSU data, I'd have gone higher - 55 or 60 kt.

It's going to take a while to get them all done, I would think Patricia will be the last one - probably not until February at least (except for the CPAC ones which are likely dependent on workload).


With the spurt that is going on I won't be surprised if it's already done in January. I would also raise the intensity for Kevin to 55 knts due to the eye feature it was forming and the fact it was a small storm.
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#28 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Dec 03, 2015 12:57 pm

In my mind, Joaquin will be interesting...and not so much for what happened in the Bahamas. I'm thinking it might get a second life as a (sub)tropical storm right off Portugal around October 13.
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#29 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Dec 09, 2015 11:00 am

The small report that is in Nora is out.
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#30 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Dec 09, 2015 9:24 pm

galaxy401 wrote:The small report that is in Nora is out.


I'm thinking once the CPHC gets to doing it, there might be an upgrade to Hurricane Nora.
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#31 Postby NotoSans » Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:28 pm

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Re: 2015 TCRs

#32 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:53 pm

NotoSans wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP162015_Sixteen-E.pdf
TD 16E is out.

So they didn't upgrade to TS status :/ I see their reasoning though.
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#33 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 4:36 pm

Marty in the EPAC and Kate in the ATL are out too.
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#34 Postby Hammy » Wed Jan 13, 2016 4:57 pm

Erika's report is taking an awfully long time.
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#35 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jan 13, 2016 7:31 pm

I think Alex might put a slight delay on the release of the rest of the Tropical Cyclone Reports. :P
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#36 Postby HurricaneBill » Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:20 pm

Is it me or do the reports take longer to come out every year?
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#37 Postby Alyono » Thu Jan 14, 2016 2:13 pm

Joaquin available
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#38 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jan 14, 2016 7:24 pm

Some thoughts about Joaquin:

* Although the SFMR supports Cat 5, no other data does (i.e. pressure, satellite signature, flight level winds, dropsondes) and it might have been transient in nature. 135 kt seems reasonable, although 130 kt could also be justified.

* I like how the NHC mentioned the communications difficulties and how they used the "key messages" to speak out. It should be standard practice when there are such challenges in the forecast, or when a severe hurricane is threatening (i.e. starting 48 to 72 hours out but before any watches are necessary). With some storms like Sandy, they should start as far out as 4 or 5 days away.

* I think the portion from October 11 to dissipation should be reviewed. I think that it may have been a (sub)tropical storm, and not extratropical, off the coast of Portugal, looking at the structure and phase analysis. Hence, I would consider that it became a TC once again at 1200Z October 11, until dissipation.
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#39 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Jan 14, 2016 7:35 pm

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Re: 2015 TCRs

#40 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Jan 15, 2016 8:00 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Some thoughts about Joaquin:

* Although the SFMR supports Cat 5, no other data does (i.e. pressure, satellite signature, flight level winds, dropsondes) and it might have been transient in nature. 135 kt seems reasonable, although 130 kt could also be justified.

* I like how the NHC mentioned the communications difficulties and how they used the "key messages" to speak out. It should be standard practice when there are such challenges in the forecast, or when a severe hurricane is threatening (i.e. starting 48 to 72 hours out but before any watches are necessary). With some storms like Sandy, they should start as far out as 4 or 5 days away.

* I think the portion from October 11 to dissipation should be reviewed. I think that it may have been a (sub)tropical storm, and not extratropical, off the coast of Portugal, looking at the structure and phase analysis. Hence, I would consider that it became a TC once again at 1200Z October 11, until dissipation.


I believe you can submit this to the Reanalysis Project: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/sub ... lysis.html
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