2015 TCRs

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Re: 2015 TCRs

#41 Postby NotoSans » Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:16 am

Four reports are out today: Danny and Fred from ATL, as well as Ignacio and Rick from EPAC.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL042015_Danny.pdf
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL062015_Fred.pdf
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP122015_Ignacio.pdf
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP212015_Rick.pdf

Danny's peak intensity has been revised upward to 110 kt. No significant changes for the others.
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#42 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:29 am

I knew Danny was probably a slight underestimate given the altitude and the 104 kt SFMR (supports 105 kt) but I wasn't really thinking it had already peaked at the time. I know operationally NHC had it at 90 kt at that time, probably admitting it was conservative.

Except for the parts west of 140W (which will likely take a long time), the storms remaining: Erika, Jimena, Olaf, Patricia, Sandra

I think Patricia is definitely the most awaited of them.
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#43 Postby Hammy » Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:38 pm

Erika is the last report to be finished? I honestly expected Joaquin to take the longest (and yet there were 4-5 unfinished when it came out.)
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#44 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 26, 2016 10:30 am

Hammy wrote:Erika is the last report to be finished? I honestly expected Joaquin to take the longest (and yet there were 4-5 unfinished when it came out.)


I think Patricia will be last. Although Olaf might be last as well due to its double-handover since the NHC will need to let the CPHC do more as it re-entered the NHC jurisdiction.
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#45 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jan 26, 2016 10:56 pm

Patricia should be out soon. I think landfall intensity is the big question.
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#46 Postby terstorm1012 » Wed Jan 27, 2016 8:13 am

RL3AO wrote:Patricia should be out soon. I think landfall intensity is the big question.


agreed--that one station was very interesting. Did anyone ever find out the story about that? The data it sent seemed to indicate it was broken and being dragged along the ground but after the storm passed and was gone, it seemed to be reporting normally.
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#47 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:09 am

Patricia's is out and the jawdrops continue. Up to185knots and pressures down to 872mb

Landfall down to 150mph cat 4
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#48 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:16 am

Ntxw wrote:Patricia's is out and the jawdrops continue. Up to185knots and pressures down to 872mb

Landfall down to 150mph cat 4


Incredible record at peak.Full report is at first post of thread.
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Re: 2015 TCRs: PATRICIA report is up

#49 Postby Alyono » Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:38 am

this may give credence to my theory that Haiyan winds did reach the 185kt range
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Re: 2015 TCRs: PATRICIA report is up

#50 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:54 am

Incredible. I knew it was likely stronger than 175 kt. It mentions that Patricia may have passed Tip, but they couldn't give it the record as there was no Recon at 1200Z. As for comparisons to Haiyan, those are apples and oranges. Maybe Haiyan was 190 kt or more at peak? Unfortunately we will never know.

As for landfall, I knew it was borderline between Cat 4 and Cat 5. It notes that it was highly uncertain. The Chamela wind observation was discarded as it was deemed unreliable, and 932mb was probably not a Cat 5. They could have probably gone anywhere between 115 kt and 145 kt for the landfall intensity.
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Re: 2015 TCRs: PATRICIA report is up

#51 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:54 am

Wow crazy how this storm was very close to surpassing Tip. In the report it showed a graph of the water anomalies in the region Patricia past and it was an all time high.
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Re: 2015 TCRs: PATRICIA report is up

#52 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:22 am

Didn't expect this, although both the reduction in landfall winds and increase to 185 are justifiable.
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Re: 2015 TCRs: PATRICIA report is up

#53 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:50 am

185kt 872mb

WTF......
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Re: 2015 TCRs: PATRICIA report is up

#54 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:05 pm

185 kt ties Nancy '61 for the highest winds in any best track winds, and 872 mb is two man off from tying Tip, putting Patricia comfortably in second place in best track pressure. Pretty remarkable storm.
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Re: 2015 TCRs: PATRICIA report is up

#55 Postby RL3AO » Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:23 pm

I was able to visit NHC last week and the guy writing it told me there were a couple of surprises. He was not kidding. 872 mb is amazing.
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Re: 2015 TCRs: PATRICIA report is up

#56 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:39 pm

For all we know, Tip may have indeed fallen and Patricia may have gone into the 860s.

At 0510Z, the pressure was 892. By 0555Z it had fallen to 886 and by about 0645Z it fell to 880 - a drop of 12 mb in just over 90 minutes. If that trend is maintained to 1200Z, the minimum pressure would be an absolutely insane 853mb. That is probably unrealistic, but somewhere in the high 860s is not unreasonable. Unfortunately, the data is not conclusive enough to support such.
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Re: 2015 TCRs: PATRICIA report is up

#57 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:47 pm

did not expect the landfall downgrade but if the station was unreliable, I can accept that!
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Re: 2015 TCRs

#58 Postby znel52 » Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:33 pm

Ntxw wrote:Patricia's is out and the jawdrops continue. Up to185knots and pressures down to 872mb

Landfall down to 150mph cat 4


I don't even know what to say that is just insane...
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Re: 2015 TCRs: PATRICIA report is up

#59 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:45 pm

Wow.
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Re: 2015 TCRs: PATRICIA report is up

#60 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:33 pm

Patricia is almost on par with Super Typhoon Tip in terms of central pressure. Tip had 190 mph winds, while Patricia had 215 mph winds. Tip was much larger than Patricia. :eek:
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