Disturbed area north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico

[NDG]

Mid level westerly shear seems to be current deterrent to any organization with this tropical wave at this moment, you can see the low level vorticity continuing to move west while the convection is staying put if not being pushed to the SE by mid level winds.
With not even the most aggressive model showing any development I would not worry about this disturbance other than bringing much needed rains to P.R. & Virgin Islands today.

[floridasun78]

If this holds together things could get very interesting when it reaches the southern Bahamas. Storms have been known to form rapidly in that area.


This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

like Katina baby vision before become monster in gulf. it form quick into hurr before hitting south fl as cat 1 in nw Bahamas by grand bahama i remember that very well

[tolakram]

Live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[boca]

How is the shear once the system reaches the Southern Bahamas?

[tolakram]

Some much needed rain for PR.

saved radar loop

[Nimbus]

This area was a well formed wave for several days before encountering the influence of the TUT.
With high pressure building off the southeast CONUS the shear will relax soon.
I was going to post about it earlier but I figured everyone expected the TUT and dry environment to cap any chances for development.
If there was an organizing surface low there would be model support for development.

[northjaxpro]

How is the shear once the system reaches the Southern Bahamas?

I posted the latest shear analysis posted on thr previous page and shear drops off considerably in the area immediayely west and northwest of the system in the vicinity of the Bahamas and just east of there. There is a chance that should this area stay intact the next day or so, it can get into that environment of lower shear. Just something to watch. Models not latching on yet, but I would not be surprised if they start doing so if this wave holds together as it moves westward.

[gatorcane]

Yeah and another thing to point out is that look at 96L. A few days ago basically no model but the GFS even showed the hint of anything (and lesser extent NAVGEM). Now look where we are at. Models are not the holy grail when it comes to the tropics. Even the models sometimes have to play catchup!

Convection looks good (saved loop below) but can it maintain or will it be poofed by this time tomorrow?

[gatorcane]

Look at that, shear happens to be decreasing over the area. Hmm:

[NCSTORMMAN]

The center is actually to the northwest of the convection near Puerto Rico and seems to be firing new convection there. Less shear in that area as well let us see if it can hold on.

[tropicwatch]

This area might get a honorable mention by the NHC in the next TWO.

[NDG]

I still don't see anything close to organizing, wave axis continues to move west while the convection is staying behind, the convection will collapse soon.

[northjaxpro]

I still don't see anything close to organizing, wave axis continues to move west while the convection is staying behind, the convection will collapse soon.

The key thing will be the next day or so. The vorticity at 850 mb or what remains of it as it tracks west will be crucial. If convection can refire next 24-36 hours as it heads into a better environment, then that will be the time to start taking notice imo.

[NDG]

Yet another ULL over the h85 vorticity, not much development in the near future for this disturbance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I still don't see anything close to organizing, wave axis continues to move west while the convection is staying behind, the convection will collapse soon.

Right on cue. Another ull digging in from the north as well. At least Puerto Rico is getting some rain.

[NCSTORMMAN]

The center is entering the Bahamas and looks to be firing off new convection. No shear present as far as I can tell in the Bahamas and it has survived naked so far.