Small but well-defined vortex near 10N 45W

[AJC3]

I'm the last person in the world to hawk areas that have very little chance for development, nil model support, etc. But I did want to point out that there's a very well defined cloud level vortex in visible satellite imagery associated with this wave....

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N44W TO 05N46W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. A 850 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N45W. A POLEWARD SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE TO 12N IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W.

I see these features a lot in the MDR. Being small, much more often that not they're transient due their susceptibility to deformation and any unfavorable conditions such as dry air/shear. While it's been tooting sporadic convection, it, of course, faces a grim future. Just wanted to point it out while it's still out there. Here's a still image, but it shows up much better in a visible time lapse such as the NASA GHCC site's basin wide view.

[gatorcane]

AJC3 yeah I have been looking at this area since a couple of days ago the CMC model was developing it and sending a T.S. into the Caribbean. But the CMC dropped it and no other model is developing. Still nice circulation for sure just way too much dry air at the moment.

[Hammy]

I'm the last person in the world to hawk areas that have very little chance for development, nil model support, etc. But I did want to point out that there's a very well defined cloud level vortex in visible satellite imagery associated with this wave....

Not that I think it will develop, but is this the same sort of thing TD2 briefly formed from last year?

[AJC3]

AJC yeah I have been looking at this area since a couple of days ago the CMC model was developing it and sending a T.S. into the Caribbean. But the CMC dropped it and no other model is developing. Still nice circulation for sure. I wonder if it can maybe develop down the road?

Highly doubtful. It looks to lead the way toward the Caribbean buzz saw. By the time it reaches the Caribbean in a few days, it would have to hug the SOAM coast to avoid the prohibitive high shear to the north, and of course, doing that takes it through the "graveyard" where local acceleration of the low level wind and proximity to land usually do fledgling systems in. Buzz saw or graveyard - not a great choice.