Hurricaneman's Tropical Atlantic forecast for 8\16\2015

[Hurricaneman]

There are a few areas that have my interest and I'll give my probabilities for development after the forecast

96L has a good circulation and keeps firing convection and some of the intensity models are actually pretty bullish on it and shear seems to be low for the moment and the chances of development are
TD 80%
TS 50%
HU 15%

Another wave has just come off of Africa and seems to have some model support and a good convective moist envelope so here are its chances
TD 30%
TS 10%
HU 1>%

Area near Hispaniola
Seems to have good convection but the cons are it has shear and little model support but one thing I noticed is it seems to be heading towards an area of lower shear so based on that here are its chances
TD 10%
TS 3%
HU 1>%

Disturbed weather in GOM
While it looks quite disjointed it seems to be persisting and seems to be trying but the models are not latching on so here are my chances
TD 15%
TS 5%
HU 1>%

Something of interest is showing up in the models as at 48hrs they seem to break off a MLC from the jet stream SE of New England and all models except for the GFS seem to develop a surface low around 5 days SW of Bermuda but the models that develop it are developing weak lows as of now and not anything really threatening but that could change in the following days so its something to keep an eye on and the chances of development are
TD 20%
TS 5%
HU 1%

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[ninel conde]

good work!