Potential Trop/Sub-Trop Development near Bermuda (Now 97L)

[northjaxpro]

NHC has already given the area a 20% development chance early on for the next 5 days. Looks as if a non-tropical Low is trying to transition to acquire tropical characteristics and may do that as time progresses. I am at the airport currently and not by my computer to post graphics, so I am posting this via my smartphone. I will leave it to cycloneye and other mods and others to post the graphics regarding this potential system to start this thread.

Discuss...

[tolakram]

There is no active invest for this yet. Moved to Talking Tropics forum.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form within a
couple of hundred miles of Bermuda over the western Atlantic Ocean
in a few days. Environmental conditions could support some
tropical or subtropical development of the system by the weekend
while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[TheStormExpert]

8pm TWO.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form within a
couple of hundred miles of Bermuda over the western Atlantic Ocean
in a few days. Environmental conditions could support some
tropical or subtropical development of this system by the weekend
while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[tropicwatch]

Too close to some serious wind shear currently.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[northjaxpro]

Well, this system is forecast to drift north in the short term, which would move it into an area of much lighter wind shear as evidenced in the shear analysis graphic above. NHC is bullish a bit on this system, now at 30% for development in the five day forecast period.

[northjaxpro]

NHC still keeping this feature at 30% development chances the next five days on their 8 a.m. TWO this morning

[tropicwatch]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Danny, located over the central tropical Atlantic more than
1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

A broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is
producing an elongated area of cloudiness and showers to the
southeast through southwest of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure
system could form in the vicinity of Bermuda and over the western
Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally favorable for some
tropical or subtropical development of this system over the weekend
while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[northjaxpro]

Still at 40% for development chances in 5 days.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015




A broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is
producing an elongated area of cloudiness and showers to the
southeast through southwest of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure
system is expected to form over the western Atlantic in the vicinity
of Bermuda during the next few days. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be only somewhat favorable for
subsequent tropical or subtropical development of this system over
the weekend while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[CrazyC83]

This could have major implications on Danny, correct? Would a storm between Bermuda and the NE coast act as an alleyway for Danny out to sea, or would the ridge and it work in tandem to act a a block, forcing Danny westward?

[northjaxpro]

This could have major implications on Danny, correct? Would a storm between Bermuda and the NE coast act as an alleyway for Danny out to sea, or would the ridge and it work in tandem to act a a block, forcing Danny westward?

What is interesting about this feature is that the 72 hour surface NHC TAFB forecast analysis has the entity currently near Bermuda drifting to the southeast and have it as a rather weak 1012mb subtropical/tropical system just south/southeast of the island. Note, the TAFB 72 hour analysis has Danny depicted as a hurricane at 80 kts moving west-northwest in this 72 hour forecast.

The system near Bermuda has been meandering for the past several days, but is forecast to drift back to the north by this weekend. Should that happen, that may allow the mid level ridge to build in behind the Bermuda Low this weekend. In turn, that may most definitely influence Danny's movement as a building ridge would force Danny on a more westward motion.

[TheStormExpert]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is producing an
area of showers and thunderstorms to the southeast through southwest
of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to
form within this trough over the western Atlantic during the next
day or two, and environmental conditions should support some
subsequent tropical or subtropical development over the weekend
while this disturbance moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, now up to 60% now. NHC confident now that a subtropical/tropical entity will come of this in the next few days. As I mentioned in my post last night, whatever comes of this potential system could have an influence on Danny down the road.