Twave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

A tropical wave near the coast of west Africa is producing some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become marginally favorable for some development of
this system by the weekend while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20
mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Blake

[TheStormExpert]

[gatorcane]

This one looks to move rapidly west across the Atlantic and might even catch Danny (or whatever is left of it) at some point. UKMET likes development

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave that has emerged off of the west coast of Africa
several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to become marginally favorable for some
development of this system over the weekend and into early next week
while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located just off of the west coast of Africa is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some
development of this system over the weekend and into early next week
while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Hammy]

If all three systems mentioned in the TWO develop, could this signal a general trend of improving conditions (relatively speaking, considering we're in an El Nino) over the last several seasons?

[TheStormExpert]

[cycloneye]

This is the wave that EURO develops near the Bahamas.

[TheStormExpert]

A tropical wave located just off of the west coast of Africa is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[gatorcane]

2. A tropical wave located just off of the west coast of Africa is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while the wave moves westward at about 20 mph over the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro send this far to the west under a massive North Atlantic ridge, strong T.S. at 168 hours, just north of PR.

Check out this setup:

[tolakram]

Recurves east of Florida. (222 hours, Weatherbell)

Looks identical to the early Danny runs.

[perk]

Recurves east of Florida. (222 hours, Weatherbell)

Looks identical to the early Danny runs.

Let me guess the GFS.

[LarryWx]

Recurves east of Florida. (222 hours, Weatherbell)

Looks identical to the early Danny runs.

Let me guess the GFS.

I assume he's talking about the Euro, which does have it recurving then. Of course, if it were to become a TC in the eastern MDR like is shown, the odds of it making it all of the way to the CONUS in a strong El Nino are probably no better than 10% mainly due to recurvature or dissipation (just like was the case for Danny when/where it formed). So, showing a recurve east of the CONUS would be the norm. OTOH, it does still show it getting pretty close and there would be a small chance to hit the CONUS.
Anyway, let's first see if this will actually become a TC in the E MDR.

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 5h5 hours ago Texas, USA

Still think Danny likely to die but system behind it bigger concern for US in 7-10 day... PR and Islands too. Danny: much needed rain PR

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next several days while the wave moves quickly westward
at about 25 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[gatorcane]

Wow 25mph!

Latest GFS run shows this system making it to the Northern Leewards in 117 hours. Pretty amazing.

[TheStormExpert]

Up to 20/50 @ 2am.

2. A tropical wave located near the Cape Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next several days while the wave
moves quickly westward at about 25 mph over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Gustywind]

Very interresting discussion from PR.


000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220935
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2015

INTERESTINGLY...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF DANNY...A VERY ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION THURSDAY THE 28TH. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING ALSO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW
WHICH EFFECTS...IF ANY...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON DANNY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE BEHIND IT.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%/60%

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave near and south of
the Cape Verde Islands has become a little better organized since
yesterday. Additional slow development of this system is possible
during the next several days while the wave moves quickly westward
at about 25 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent