Twave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[hurricaneCW]

Any recurve assumptions are just as silly as forecasting a U.S. landfall. Forecasts beyond a week are sketchy at best.

[tolakram]

Any recurve assumptions are just as silly as forecasting a U.S. landfall. Forecasts beyond a week are sketchy at best.

Who is making this assumption? Commentary was about a model run showing a recurve.

[Siker]

JB keeps talking about this and the uncertainty in long range steering players.

Also, surprised this still isn't invested (I was surprised this morning, haha).

[Blown Away]

Future 98L is going to run up behind Danny pretty fast... If the EURO shows a significant system I think we should take notice... The speed at which future 98L will move gives me more confidence Danny will be toast...

[gatorcane]

The GFS isn't blowing this up yet, I expect it to soon if the ECMWF is. Curious where the GFS sends this. Beyond 168 hours, even the Euro loses accuracy so the recurve runs it is showing now are certainly not set in stone. we can't say for sure if this system has a potential to impact the Caribbean islands or United States as it is too early.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z UKMET really like this wave and is a little faster and stronger than the ECMWF run through 132 hours with the system just north of the northern Leewards / Puerto Rico area (but barely, close call):

[storm4u]

How is this not a invest looks great and has support

[TheStormExpert]

What causes this wave to race across the MDR?

[cycloneye]

Strong ridge. But as others have said,why this is not a invest?

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS shows nothing but a wave which spins up some vorticity in the Bahamas in the long-range which recurves. The model shows a bit more ridging over the SW Atlantic than previous runs, which allows the vorticity from this wave to recurve farther west, so we will want to watch that over the coming model cycles.

[fci]

Has to be tagged pretty soon.

[blp]

Even the conservative CMC cough... (sarcasm) has this ramping up. All models have this as a go. Man this is going to fly across the Atlantic.

I am so grateful we have things to track. We need to enjoy it while it lasts. The MDR only has a few more weeks.

[TheStormExpert]

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is currently
producing only limited shower and thunderstorm activity. However,
slow development of this system is possible during the next several
days while the wave moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 98L