GOM looks messy (Is Invest 94L)

[Stormcenter]

Even though the models are not picking up on any development right now..
I think SW/NW GOM is an area that should be watched for some home grown activity. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[Sanibel]

Several lingering fronts have failed to take root this year.

[NDG]

Wind shear is going to be taking over the GOM starting over this weekend into next week.

I am starting to sound like a burn record

[PTrackerLA]

We hear every season "watch the stalled fronts in the gulf" but really this seems exceedingly rare. I can't recall the last time we had a true home grown significant storm or hurricane occur in the GOM.

[Hurricanehink]

We hear every season "watch the stalled fronts in the gulf" but really this seems exceedingly rare. I can't recall the last time we had a true home grown significant storm or hurricane occur in the GOM.

At a quick glance, the last major hurricane that formed in the Gulf of Mexico was Hurricane Bret in 1999, which formed in the Bay of Campeche and became a Category 4. The most recent hurricane in general to form in the GoM was Ingrid in September 2013. The most recent major hurricane in the gulf, regardless where it formed, was Karl in September 2010, which entered the Bay of Campeche as a tropical storm and rapidly intensified to a C3 before hitting Veracruz.

None of these storms were from a front though.

[Nimbus]

Afternoon thunderstorms mid gulf, I actually bothered to check the 42003 buoy.
Probably will do the usual diurnal drop.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

[tropicwatch]

Actually was just looking at that and there is some 850mb vorticity in the area.

[northjaxpro]

There is a weak 1017 mb Low in the Northeast GOM which is moving west. Pressures are still high and conditions still unfavorable for development right nw in the GOM, as they have been all year, with the exception of T.S. Bill in the Western GOm back in June.

[KatDaddy]

I am watching this as well. This is how home brew develops but thankfully for now conditions are unfavorable.

[Nimbus]

Surface pressure dipped to 1013, but there is an outflow boundary and light shear from the north.
The 500 mb shear forecast calls for shear < 15 knots through 72 hours in the area of lowest surface pressure.
Could be invest worthy in a day or three.

[northjaxpro]

As Nimbus stated in his post above, the 21Z WPC/NHC surface analysis does confirm the 1013 mb Low in the NE GOM, a modest drop of pressure since late this morning. If the shear drops off a bit, it may have a chance, but that's been a tall order for shear to let up in the GOM this season. Keep an eye on it.

[HurricaneBelle]

Just saw this little tidbit in the Tampa Bay AFD issued about a half-hour ago:

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
ON MONDAY. SOME MODELS...SPECIFICALLY HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/HRRR
MEMBERS...DEVELOP A PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
MONDAY.

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTBW/1509070035.fxus62.html

[northjaxpro]

Well, this may have a slight chance to develop IF, and only IF the shear can relax just a bit. Moisture is aplenty obviously right now in the GOM. I have to say that convection really blossomed today in the Eastern GOM and pressures have slowly dropped from late this morning, when at 15Z the surface Low was analyzed at 1017mb.

I will be checking the shear analysis and it will be interesting to see if shear levels can somehow drop off in the GOM. This has been almost impossible this season in the GOM, but we shall see how this may fare the next couple of days.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the latest shear analysis, if you look closely at the area where the weak Low is anayzed, it is tucked in an area of 10-20 kts of shear currently. That is not too bad, rather marginable for that matter. The higher shear levels are across the NW GOM at the moment as the trough axis is digging in toward that region. Have to see how this will be in the morning. If the shear stays at or below 20 kts over the surface Low, we may have something to watch close to home.

[northjaxpro]

Just saw this little tidbit in the Tampa Bay AFD issued about a half-hour ago:

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
ON MONDAY. SOME MODELS...SPECIFICALLY HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/HRRR
MEMBERS...DEVELOP A PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
MONDAY.

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTBW/1509070035.fxus62.html

Here is a look at what the Tampa mets are referring to the HRRR model below. It is a 15 hour loop up through 18Z tomorrow which shows a compacted Low in the NE GOM.

[Steve]

Yeah it seems like radar derived products tend to draw cyclonic masses sometimes. I wouldn't be surprised to see random spinups and consolidations in the gulf, but I don't think anything will be of consequence for a while. My observational caveats for the remainder of the gulf season would be:

1. 2002 potential analog. There are both hit and miss track similarities so far this year. A major difference was that nothing was aimed at the eastern big islands that year. However, 2002 tied the then record 8 storms in September before shutting down after Lili's 10/2 landfall down in Vermillion/Iberia/St Mary Parishes. Lili came up from a major hitting the Yucatan and getting stuck there for several advisories. Isidore came by way of Jamaica and Cuba. So if, and that's a sketchy if, anything can find its way to the Western Caribbean, there is liable to be ridging in the east for much of September.

2. Some models at end of run (GFS and CMC in particular) have shown some tendencies to bring up energy from the BoC. Is that how we maybe get out end of season??? Maybe something of either Pacific origin or possibly consolidated wave energy down there?

3. A piece of low or mid level trough energy breaking off from the 5-8 day front. We have seen that pattern a couple of times so far, and that's something to look out for. So far, no go but there are hints that the next major front that gets through will leave a piece back as the pattern returns to predominant ridging in the SE toward the 20th.

I'm just throwing out some stuff to follow in September for the gulf watchers. Likely and hopefully things stay quiet and messy down there for the rest of the season. But Hannah, Isidore and Lili all hit within 2 weeks and within 100-125 miles of a stretch of Gulf Coast.

This is nothing official and simply represents some recent model trends and possible analog seasons. Not saying any of the above will happen or even is likely to happen.

[NDG]

There's no comparison between September 2002 and conditions so far September in the Caribbean & GOM.
Regarding this area of convection in the eastern GOM is being enhanced by an UL trough over it, no tropical development here, IMO.

[Steve]

Agreed on east gulf. As for 2002, many posters and mets have drawn parallels. I questioned it. 2015 is 2015 Imho but shares things in common with other years. If 2002 is an analog, and again I'm telling you straight up that I'm skeptical that it is, there were 8 storms in September including 3 Gulf of Mexico landfalls within roughly 2 weeks and all between mid September and the 2nd of October. My point in the messy Gulf thread, if there is one, is that there could be a transitionary pattern set up leading into fall adjusted for 2015 atmospheric conditions that leads to a concentrated range of tracks to close out the season in a flurry if we go out similarly to what happened in 2002. Ultimately, lots of sources have lots of different analogs. We will see what happens in the next 30 days and if any of the recent > 2.0 El Ninos end up having telegraphed or partially telegraphed how the atmosphere transitions into fall vis a vis (sp?) the tropics.

[ronjon]

These mesoscale models preformed well with Erika's remnants. I have no doubt It'll crank out a vortex with spin and heavy convection for Florida west coast today. Something organized as a cyclone...probably not. Although it is Labor Day....

[KatDaddy]

From this morning's Houston-Galveston AFD:

SUNDAY THINGS BEGIN TO GET CONCERNING... MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGHING ALOFT
OVER TX/MEXICO THE LAST FEW RUNS...DOING SO THEN BACKING OFF. NOW
BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEGUN TO COALESCE TOWARDS A VERY WET
SOLUTION STARTING LATE NEXT SUNDAY FOR THE GFS EXPANDING NORTHWARD
INTO SETX EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS 6
HOURS OR SO SLOWER BUT MORE INTENSE...PW SURGING TO 2.5-2.6"!
BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A VERY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (PERHAPS
INITIALLY A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE TAIL END OF THE REMNANT FRONT)
THAT QUICKLY WRAPS UP AND MOVES INTO SETX. THIS SCENARIO MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. STAY TUNED.