Posible GOM development?

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure could form early next week over the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Development, if any, should be slow to
occur as the system drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 20 percent

[NDG]

NHC must be bored, declared 97L yesterday to a highly sheared system with not much global model support for much development and now highlighting the southern GOM this early on.

[northjaxpro]

I can not recall NHC discussing a potential area of interest this early on NDG.

[stormlover2013]

Well every model is showing something, and I mean every model

[NDG]

And I am sure the media will be going crazy later today and the oil Cos will start evacuating the oil field workers to what will most likely turned out to be a highly sheared broad 25 knot low pressure system that will look more extra tropical than tropical

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormlover2013]

I think there is a 50 percent chance we could get a low end tropical system, I won't see believe it until I see it but the models are on to something

[Stormcenter]

It is unusual for the NHC to sound the alarm on possible development so I'm sure they are pretty confident something is going to try to develop in the southern Gulf. As to the strength, who knows but I wouldn't laugh it off just yet as a sheared weak system if it were to pan out. IMO

[tropicwatch]

Still kind of weird, a highlighted area with nothing there.

[stormlover2013]

its not supposed to be there till maybe Saturday or Sunday

[tropicwatch]

Yea I know but one of our local mets described it as an area of disturbed weather. He will probably edit that post I would think.

[gatorcane]

The NHC should follow storm2K rules: no threads (or mentions in Outlooks) allowed on model storms!

I am a bit surprised they pulled the trigger so soon seeing how there is nothing even there and we are many days away from even the broad low trying form.

[stormlover2013]

yeah no doubt I hear yall on that, but I guess when every model is showing a little bit of something they decided to jump the gun little bit, I mean I could see if it was friday and models still showing this but wed does seem to be early

[Alyono]

also surprised they mentioned this. Models are indicating a lower chance of development with the latest runs than they previously were

[srainhoutx]

also surprised they mentioned this. Models are indicating a lower chance of development with the latest runs than they previously were

Perhaps the Ensembles were just a bit too hard to ignore.

[stormlover2013]

yeah because the ensembles from like 2 weeks ago there were barley any forecasting something to form, not the ensembles for this there are a lot of them showing formation but who knows

[N2FSU]

Definite spin with increasing convection on the Pacific side this morning. There was talk of a crossover system and maybe this is an early sign?

[cycloneye]

The NHC should follow storm2K rules: no threads (or mentions in Outlooks) allowed on model storms!

I am a bit surprised they pulled the trigger so soon seeing how there is nothing even there and we are many days away from even the broad low trying form.

In this case I made the thread because they mentioned the area.If there was no mention,we would continue posting model runs at the models discussion thread.

[ROCK]

even the great FIM model sees it....

takes it into western LA on its latest run

http://fim.noaa.gov/

[ronjon]

I'm fine with NHC giving a 80% chance of no development over the next five days! LOL. Seriously, with all this model support for at least a weak low pressure system - why not?

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is a big blow up of convection east of Nicaragua. Could that be the seed that gets this going?