Model Wars

[WeatherGuesser]

Previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117530&hilit=

Seriously, all the model posts are becoming a distraction. In many of these storm threads in active discussion in different basins, every other post mentions one or more.

People ask why discussion drops off. This is one reason. People are simply tired of the model bickering. They are very rarely accurate, even just a few hours out. There are a significant number of posts complaining about or laughing at just how wrong they were when referencing posts of just a few days or hours before.

You can have Ph.D. in meteorology and look at the math that goes into a global model and have their head spin.

Which is partially why I don't think they should be mentioned in the storm threads at all. The vast majority of posters don't seem to understand them and often quote them as near fact.

It's really Magic 8 Ball stuff.

[Kingarabian]

Previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117530&hilit=

Seriously, all the model posts are becoming a distraction. In many of these storm threads in active discussion in different basins, every other post mentions one or more.

People ask why discussion drops off. This is one reason. People are simply tired of the model bickering. They are very rarely accurate, even just a few hours out. There are a significant number of posts complaining about or laughing at just how wrong they were when referencing posts of just a few days or hours before.

You can have Ph.D. in meteorology and look at the math that goes into a global model and have their head spin.

Which is partially why I don't think they should be mentioned in the storm threads at all. The vast majority of posters don't seem to understand them and often quote them as near fact.

It's really Magic 8 Ball stuff.

Storm2k has been here for more than a decade and people posting about models is nothing new and nor will it ever be destructive. The main reason why conversations fall off is simply due to a storm weakening or not being a threat anymore. People care more about something that is going to affect them.

But you bring up valid points. We didn't have Levi Cowans website before as well as weather bell, and Instantweathermaps.com. These models websites have acted to make model access a lot easier and interactive. They are wonderful and powerful resources when used correctly. The problem however, is when new users start using them and are not properly educated on how they work and how to understand them. I'm starting to see an increase in people being frustrated over computer models despite the known warnings and track error they have. A smart and responsible weather hobbiest other pro knows the strength and weaknesses of a model. The vast majority of those on here understand this and it's usually not a problem. The rest could use a little bit of a tutorial. I wasn't perfect when I first started on here.

As to models being posted on associated storms, I think it's not a problem especially when there's a threat. It allows people to prepare earlier if necessary and it's very helpful in understanding and finding out about new trends concerning a storm.

That's my 0.2 cents.

[northjaxpro]

My take:

I think it is fine to discuss models and how particular trends are happening with regards to tropical cyclones and winter storms. The models are our guides. It is amongst our best technological advance tools that we have to help in the tracking and development of storms. I know upgrades to the GFS occured within the past year and it is my hope that and all the other models continue to get updates as it will only benefit us all in the improvement of overall forecasting in general.

However, my downside here and other forums I have visited is turning meaningful discussion into almost like blood sport almost, the silly EURO vs. GFS saga. Look, it has long been accepted years back that the EURO generally is the most accurate model in terms of long range forecasting, at least medium to long range. The GFS has performed much better , especially in the last five years, of forecasting tropical cyclones in particular. I feel in my opinion most weather observers and pro mets alike generally accept the advanced EURO as the model of choice.

I am all for giving models the proper acknowledgement for doing well. The problem I have is when we are hammered over the head about the superiorty of the EURO and "King EURO" references. Now, no model is superior folks. They all have flaws. This season alone EURO has had colossal busts on systems, as has the GFS. Also, I have seen so many great threads get taken over by silly infighting and even name calling insults by some about the EURO and GFS. This is what irritates me the most. This is not a sport in this regard. Remember people this is a science. Nothing will never be perfect and superior in forecasting weather. Do not get me wrong, the goal is to AIM for excellence in forecasting because weather affects everyone. The EURO and GFS are the two best models used in forecasting. The goal is to get all the models to improve forecasting to the level of the big 2.

Bottom line: Let us continue to have meaningful dialogue in relations to the models. We do no need to be hammered over the head about the EURO being the best of the models, which turn into at times nasty bickering. It gets so tiresome for me when threads get taken over by that nonsense. Yes, the EURO is very good, but it damn is not perfect. The GFS still has improvements needed, but it is getting better. Give acknowledgement to ANY model performing well.

But, most importantly, let's be respectful on this forum. Storm2K, as I have stated on numerous occassions, is the best weather forum on the web. We have a great learning and discussion board here with so many great pro mets and knowledgeable weather observers who I respect very much. My.point is let us not get into degenerate, at times insulting remarks by some on here about the models. It is unattractive and just plain unnecessary. I am rambling on, but I have pretty much made my points here for now.

[caneman]

+1

[Andy_L]

+1000

you hit the intent of this thread bang on....its not the discussion of models I dislike, on the contrary, I love that, its part of the learning, its the bickering, gloating, whining...

THANK YOU

[Ntxw]

The mathematics involved is more comprehensive than any one of us can comprehend, before ridiculing them we should think about this. Just the fact that we can have machines to help us do this is a privilege not a right. Fact of the matter is, they have helped saved many lives than in the past as systems and weather events of today killed many innocent lives decades and centuries ago without much warning. That said, guidance is just that...guidance and should be used as such not gospel. It's not about is this model right or that model right in the end the only losers and winners are the people in harms way. So we should continue to improve them and share knowledge of model guidance.

[Tireman4]

Ehh....lol..personnally I love BAMS

[CrazyC83]

With no computer models, most likely there would have been less than 24 hours notice for Sandy since meteorologists would have surely stuck to climatology and an out to sea solution - result would be death toll in the thousands most likely. Also this time they would have evacuated large areas for no reason, creating complacency later since the upper atmosphere looked set up for a landfall.

[Kalrany]

+1000

you hit the intent of this thread bang on....its not the discussion of models I dislike, on the contrary, I love that, its part of the learning, its the bickering, gloating, whining...

THANK YOU

Ditto.

Yes, I am in the Camp of wanting to understand the strengths and weakness of the various models. It's one of the reasons that the nicknames make me cringe.

[stormlover2013]

EURO man did a heck of a job the last 3 weeks, just hope GFS keeps getting better

[Alyono]

The real issue with the GFS is the data, not the actual model itself. I believe that there was some research done that showed when the GFS was provided the ECMWF-data, it performed similarly to the ECMWF. There is a reason why the ECMWF data is not free and is available only with a hefty-license.

So if that is the case, the effort with improving the GFS should really be with improving the NCEP data fed into the model right?

its not the data, it is the data assimilation scheme. MU insists against all logic on using a 3DVAR scheme, which maps all observations in a 6 hour window to the model initialization time. 4DVAR uses the obs at their actual time. Even the NAVGEM and CMC uses 4DVAR.

That's a big reason for my line "Ucceleni, fix your model!"

[Alyono]

What I wanna know is how come the Gfdl is now so bad??? I mean in the late 90's and early 2000's this model was a super star and now it barely gets anything right. Also it was supposed to be replaced by the Hwrf in 2008 yet is still being used. I heard they stopped development in the Gfdl model itself since 2007 which means it doesnt get upgrades anymore? Could somebody shed some light on this???


Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

I believe it is still a hydrostatic model that has to use unrealistic fluxes to get proper intensities. State of the art in the 1990s. Outdated now

[Alyono]

Previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117530&hilit=

Seriously, all the model posts are becoming a distraction. In many of these storm threads in active discussion in different basins, every other post mentions one or more.

People ask why discussion drops off. This is one reason. People are simply tired of the model bickering. They are very rarely accurate, even just a few hours out. There are a significant number of posts complaining about or laughing at just how wrong they were when referencing posts of just a few days or hours before.

You can have Ph.D. in meteorology and look at the math that goes into a global model and have their head spin.

Which is partially why I don't think they should be mentioned in the storm threads at all. The vast majority of posters don't seem to understand them and often quote them as near fact.

It's really Magic 8 Ball stuff.

It's not close to magic 8 ball stuff at all. It is simply a numeric approximation of a system of equations